Diplomacy only realistic path to resolving Iran war - Helen Clark
Former PM Helen Clark says diplomacy, not regime change, is the only realistic path to reshaping Iran, pointing to the "pretty miserable" outcomes of Western interventions in Iraq and Libya as a warning from history.
Clark made the comments on Q+A, as Iran moved to close the Strait of Hormuz over Israeli attacks in Lebanon and a fragile 60-day ceasefire hung in the balance.
Asked what options remained after decades of failed diplomacy, UN resolutions and special rapporteurs had not stopped the regime from oppressing its own people, Clark said diplomacy had in fact worked in 2015, before a change of US administration.
"Diplomacy did work in 2015, but then you had a change of administration in the United States, which basically abandoned the agreement that had been reached, and with that went the hope of a different kind of evolution in Iran over this past decade," she said.
"By and large, you can't depend on outside intervention for dealing with your internal politics, but a dynamic of an Iran — which is not subject to sanctions because it's agreed to restraints on its nuclear capacity — will open up new avenues."
Clark said outside intervention was rarely the answer to a country's internal politics.
Pressed on whether diplomacy could change the regime's behaviour rather than the regime itself, Clark cited examples where regime change had produced grim results.
"If you look at the examples of regime change, Iraq — the last 23 years, pretty, pretty miserable, look at Libya, pretty miserable, et cetera, et cetera," she said.
"If you look at more modern history, these outside interventions have not had particularly positive outcomes."
On the broader conflict, she said the Americans badly wanted the ceasefire to work, with the "wild card" being Israeli action in Lebanon.
Her comments came as Iran said it had closed the Strait of Hormuz over Israel's continued attacks in Lebanon, even as its negotiators left for technical-level talks with the United States in Switzerland on the pair's interim ceasefire agreement
In Lebanon, Israeli strikes on the south killed at least 16 people on Saturday, including two children, hours after reports of a ceasefire agreement there.
The death toll in the latest war between Israel and Hezbollah has since surpassed 4000, according to Lebanon's health ministry.
A book on long-term challenges
The interview marked the release of a new Helen Clark Foundation book, Facing Up to Our Future: Challenges and Choices, ahead of November's election. Clark said its core message was that New Zealanders had more in common than divided them.
"There are quite a number of identified challenges which across the political spectrum people agree need to be tackled, but we haven't really found a way of coming together."
She said the book drew on a wide range of authors and looked at practical solutions, including giving the Commerce Commission more power over big retailers, driving up electricity and food prices, and establishing an independent parliamentary budget office so "we don't have the wool pulled over our eyes by political parties".
Clark said the social fabric and economy had frayed since her time as PM, pointing to a run of industry closures in the regions where high electricity prices were a major factor.
"This really hurts," she said, suggesting many were "almost one company town".
She said some of the worst aspects of American politics had flowed over to New Zealand. "We're more polarised, not to say we haven't been polarised in the past, of course we have, but it's a question of degree."
She argued that select committees needed to be empowered along the lines of a US congressional committee. "Make them more like a US Congressional committee, give them some teeth, you know, to really try and shape policy as a public interest," she said.
For the full interview, watch the video above
Q+A with Jack Tame is made with the support of New Zealand On Air