Election 2023: A game of two halves in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti as Labour voters stay faithful - Whakaata Māori poll

Ikaroa-Rāwhiti candidates Labour's Cushla Tangaere Manuel (left) and Te Paati Māori's Meka Whaitiri after a debate at Ōrongomai Marae in Upper Hutt. Photo / RNZ

The Māori electorate of Ikaroa-Rāwhiti is anyone’s game where a third of voters are yet to choose their candidate.

Ikaroa-Rāwhiti was flung open when former Labour minister Meka Whaitiri switched to Te Pāti Māori in May.

A Whakaata Māori exclusive poll has revealed Labour’s newcomer, Cushla Tangaere-Manuel, has an eight-point lead over Whaitiri. But the field is still wide open with 29 per cent of those polled still undecided on which candidate they will choose. Vision NZ candidate Ata Tuhakaraina is yet to make the leaderboard.

The poll, conducted by Curia Market Research, was completed on Tuesday and places Tangaere-Manuel at 33 per cent and Whaitiri on 25 per cent.

Ikaroa-Rāwhiti has been a Labour stronghold since it was established in 1999.

If undecided voters follow Whaitiri, she will be the first non-Labour MP in the electorate’s 24-year history.

But Labour loyalty may put Tangere-Manuel over the line as a first-time candidate.

The former Ngāti Porou East Coast Rugby CEO isn’t on the Labour Party List and must win to enter Parliament. Whaitiri is No 3 on the Te Pāti Māori list.

The Whakaata Māori poll revealed Labour is still the preferred party at 33 per cent, ahead of Te Pāti Māori on 24 per cent Te Pāti Māori is gaining ground among younger voters, with 39 per cent support from those aged 18–39 compared to Labour’s 24 per cent.

Ikaroa-Rāwhiti covers the entire eastern side of the North Island from the East Cape to Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Wairarapa and down to Hutt Valley. It includes some of the worst-hit areas of this year’s Cyclone Gabrielle.

Poll respondents identified cost of living as their leading issue at 23 per cent, followed by the economy and employment, both on 9 per cent. Males cared about employment whereas females were more concerned with health and housing.

Whakaata Māori released the poll results during a live debate with Tangaere-Manuel and Whaitiri from its new studio, Hawaikirangi, in East Tāmaki.

More exclusive polling will be released across its special election debates of the Māori electorates.

A total of 500 registered voters in each electorate were polled by Curia Market Research by landline, mobile and online with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 per cent. Ikaroa-Rāwhiti median response was collected on Tuesday, September 19, 2023.

Join Whakaata Māori for WHAKATAU 2023 where we continue to test the pulse of the Māori electorates on air and online, MĀORI+ and teaonews.co.nz.