Election 2023 live updates: Green’s Chlöe Swarbrick in fight with National’s Mahesh Muralidhar for Auckland Central
A new poll shows incumbent Auckland Central MP Chlöe Swarbrick is in a close fight to hold the seat with National’s candidate Mahesh Muralidhar nipping at her heels.
The candidates vying for the electorate took to the stage last night in the sixth Taxpayers’ Union election debate.
A new Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll released moments before the debate began showed the Green Party’s Swarbrick holding onto her seat by a thin margin, but a statistical tie when accounting for the margin of error.
Of the 500 Auckland Central residents polled, 26 per cent said they supported Swarbrick, 24 per cent said they would vote for Muralidhar, while only 12 per cent said they were for Labour’s Oscar Sims.
But 29 per cent of people were still undecided.
STORY CONTINUES AFTER LIVE BLOG
Who won Newshub leaders’ debate? The verdicts on Hipkins and Luxon
Royce
Our political writers give their verdicts on tonight's performances.
Read more here:
Steve Braunias: Luxon bores himself to sleep at debate
Royce
OPINION:
Reader, it happened again. Last week I was the man who fell asleepon live television in the studio of the leaders’ debate filmed at TVNZ; and during Wednesday night’s debate, another man dozed off in front of a watching nation. His name was Christopher Luxon.
I fell asleep last week because the debate was boring. Luxon bored himself to sleep at the Newshub debate. The body, dressed in a really badly tailored pair of suit pants, was upright. But the mind had switched off. He was political leader as somnambulist, gabbling nonsense like a man talking in his sleep, saying random and senseless things.
Read more here:
James Wheeler
James Wheeler
Chris Hipkins said he was a 9 out of 10 in tonight's debate. We'll have our experts' verdicts shortly to see if they agreed.
Vera Alves
That's a wrap for the media standups with the leaders. Stay tuned for further updates, commentary and analysis on nzherald.co.nz.
Vera Alves
Luxon said he debate was "good fun" and ended up giving himself a rating of 7/10.
Vera Alves
Luxon didn't give himself a rating for his debate performance, saying it was up to the New Zealand people.
Vera Alves
Luxon called it a "robust" and "free willing" debate.
He said Hipkins "came out pretty aggressive".
"At the end of the day, it was a great debate, it was good fun."
Vera Alves
"We're very confident in our numbers," Luxon says.
Vera Alves
Now it's Luxon's turn to take questions from the media.
Vera Alves
"Are you the king of the zinger?," ZB's Jason Walls asks.
"I'm the king of the gingers," Hipkins replies.
Vera Alves
"Election campaigns are a marathon, not a sprint, but you do get a sprint at the end." - Hipkins
Vera Alves
Hipkins said he makes sure his numbers add up. "Christopher Luxon can't make the same commitment."
Vera Alves
"I'm determined to turn this around."
"It's going to be a slightly different campaign in the next couple of weeks," Hipkins said.
Vera Alves
"I'm not sure what Christopher Luxon's position was by the end of the debate because he had multiple positions throughout the debate." - Hipkins
Vera Alves
"Winston Peters' decision making is erratic. He's an unstable force of chaos," Hipkins reiterated.
Vera Alves
Asked what his target is, Hipkins said "my target is to win".
Vera Alves
"NZ First are absolutely playing the race card in this campaign," Hipkins said.
Vera Alves
"I've been enjoying the campaign all the way through but I particularly enjoyed tonight," Hipkins said.
He said he will not be holding back now.
Vera Alves
"This is the level of energy you're going to see from me in the next two and a half weeks," Hipkins said.
"I'm fully enjoying myself now."
Vera Alves
Hipkins gives himself a 9/10 rating for today's debate.
FACT CHECK
Vera Alves
Christopher Luxon said the All Blacks have never lost a World Cup under the last National Government. He was right.
The All Blacks did win in both John Key's terms of 2011 and 2015 - but had not won in the National Government prior to that.
The All Blacks finished third in in the Rugby World Cup in 1991 and also lost the in 1995 - both during a National government (the Bolger–Shipley government).
The All Blacks also lost two games in the 1999 World Cup in the final days of the government led by National's Jenny Shipley.
Vera Alves
We will back shortly with the post-debate media standups with the Chrises.
Vera Alves
Paddy Gower thanks "the red Chris" and "the blue Chris" and ends the debate.
Vera Alves
The Chrisses don't really push the boat out with their favourite prime ministers.
Hipkins chose Labour's Michael Joseph Savage and Luxon chose National's Keith Holyoake.
Really pushing the boat out there Chrisses.
Vera Alves
Luxon also promises a knighthood for Ian Foster "if he wins the World Cup."
Vera Alves
Luxon says second harbour crossing should be tolled.
Vera Alves
Both said cats should be in predator free 2050.
Vera Alves
Asked who New Zealand's greatest PM is, Luxon says to Hipkins "are you going to say Chris Hipkins?"
Hipkins: "Are you?"
Vera Alves
Luxon claims he caught a bus from the Waiheke terminal. Hipkins with his kids in the last year.
Vera Alves
"Winston Peters will never be Prime Minister, do not worry about that." - Chris Luxon
Vera Alves
Neither could easily say when they last caught a public bus.
Vera Alves
Both said they were open to churches paying taxes.
Vera Alves
"it's not a great endorsement of Judith," Hipkins says when Luxon prevaricates over the question.
Vera Alves
On foreign affairs portfolio and if it should be Judith Collins or Winston Peters, Luxon said "I haven't thought about it".
Vera Alves
Hipkins said conditions didn't work last time: "it's cruel."
Vera Alves
Hipkins said no to live animal exports, Luxon said with conditions.
Vera Alves
Gower bit of sledge on how much a tax on AI would raise, says to Luxon "you could work it out."
Vera Alves
Luxon said NZ should embarce GE while Hipkins said it could be done carefully.
Vera Alves
Luxon said he wants to bring Defence spending to 2 per cent of GDP, a target used for members of the Northern Hemisphere’s NATO alliance, although he said he would not get there immediately (he said there are other priorities).
This is a tough number to calculate. Defence spending is pretty lumpy because a large component of it involves buying expensive machinery, which occurs infrequently.
Two per cent of GDP would be $8.3b a year.
An OECD metric says we spend 1.5 per cent of GDP on Defence, leaving a gap of about $2b a year.
Treasury’s Prefu figures put spending at $3.2b, about 0.7 per cent of GDP.
Vera Alves
Both said they would look into menopause leave.
Vera Alves
Asked what is more harmful out of alcohol and cannabis, both said alcohol.
Vera Alves
Time for the quick fire questions.
Vera Alves
Vera Alves
Vera Alves
Vera Alves
Neither would ban TikTok.
Vera Alves
On AUKUS and joining pillar 2, Luxon said it was undefined and would need to look into it.
Hipkins said they would cooperate with those partners, but would not commit to joining.
Vera Alves
Both said NZ should not get drones that kill people.
Vera Alves
Both leaders avoided saying if NZ needed to be prepared for conflict, saying everything needed to done to avoiding it. Luxon said it was good there was bipartisanship on this.
Vera Alves
"Do you ever answer a question straight?" Hipkins to Luxon
Vera Alves
On defence spending, Luxon said he wanted to get to 2 per cent of GDP but there were other pressing priorities.
Vera Alves
If the Greens and Te Pāti Māori made a wealth tax a bottom line, Hipkins said he did not think it would come to that. He said they had worked constructively together before. Luxon said he didn't think Labour would have the leverage to make that decision.
Vera Alves
Asked if Peters was good or bad for the country, Hipkins immediately said "bad." Luxon repeatedly said "I don't know him. That's a decision for the voters of New Zealand."
Which incidentally is Peters' usual quote too.
Vera Alves
The Chrises have just wandered into a very complicated issue, what’s the best way to lower emissions: the Emissions Trading Scheme, or individual policies like the Clean Car Discount.
It boils down to this. Investments in policies like the NZ Steel deal and the Clean Car Discount reduce emissions from those particular polluters. This keeps the ETS price down, but does not necessarily lower the country’s overall net emissions.
Labour argues that National getting rid of these policies and relying on the ETS to reduce emissions would require the price to rise dramatically, putting up the price of fuel by 40 cents a litre.
They have a point there - the ETS is going to need to rise, and quite a lot. National’s counter argument is Labour’s policies do not actually reduce net emissions. For the county.
We covered this issue in detail in the piece below:
Vera Alves
On his plan to manage Peters and David Seymour given their hostility to each other, Luxon again avoided answering the question.
He said it was not his preference and it would be better than a "five ring circus" if Hipkins got in with the Greens and Te Pāti Māori.
Vera Alves
Hipkins was very quick to answer that Peters is bad for the country.
Vera Alves
Asked if Winston Peters was good or bad, Luxon avoided answering and said he didn't know him.
Vera Alves
"You can't even keep a consistent position during a debate." - Hipkins to Luxon
Vera Alves
Hipkins then pointed out Luxon had earlier said he thought drugs should be treated as a health issue.
Vera Alves
Vera Alves
On decriminalising cannabis, Hipkins said he would not rule out further changes but wanted to seek a bipartisan approach. Luxon said his party was not supportive of that.
Vera Alves
"We all have our views about pro-life, or pro-choice views. I've been very clear those laws are settled."
Vera Alves
"You haven't answered the question," said Hipkins. He pointed out there were people in National's caucus that celebrated abortion laws being overturned in the US.
Vera Alves
Luxon answers the question about abortion in the only way he really can, repeating his promise not to change abortion laws.
Vera Alves
Asked if Luxon regretted saying abortion was "tantamount to murder", Luxon avoided answering the question and said if abortion laws changed he would resign.
Vera Alves
Neither said they would abandon their principles for politics.
Vera Alves
Vera Alves
Time for another break. When they come back, they'll be talking about coalitions.
Vera Alves
Asked if they had stole a road cone, Luxon said he hadn't.
Hipkins said they did have one in a student flat he lived in.
Vera Alves
On potholes, Hipkins said they were spending more fixing them that any Government in history.
Vera Alves
On speed limits, Hipkins said on new roads where it was safe it was appropriate to raise them, but not on dangerous roads.
Vera Alves
Luxon says it's "corporate welfare." "You should not be giving taxpayers' money to companies making $2.1 billion of profit."
Vera Alves
Luxon said instead Labour was subsidising corporates making billions in profits.
Vera Alves
Hipkins argues that the big corporates won't take emissions reductions measures themselves. "They won't."
Vera Alves
On subsidising corporates to reduce their emissions, Hipkins said they were good investments as they reduced the country's emissions overall.
Luxon said they would do that themselves if the Emissions Trading Scheme was working properly. Hipkins said if that occurred petrol would go up immediately 40c a litre.
Vera Alves
On the clean car discount, Hipkins said it had seen among the fastest uptake in EVs and hybrids in the world. Luxon said the discount wasn't needed, and instead the focus needed to be on increasing chargers to make them mor attracetive to consumers.
Vera Alves
Hipkins said not harvesting the trees was not a good option as they could still pose a danger. He agreed harvesters could lose their licenses to operate.
Vera Alves
That could include shutting down the forests.
Vera Alves
Luxon said there simply needed to be greater penalties for breaches.
Vera Alves
Hipkins said it was not as simple as shutting down forests. It was about doing it responsibly.
Vera Alves
Both said forestry companies had to take responsibility for forestry slash.
Vera Alves
Both leaders said they agreed to a bipartisan approach to how to shift communities impacted by climate change.
Vera Alves
Hipkins he wanted to be a progressive leader on climate change, pointing emissions had reduced three years in a row now.
Luxon said he too wanted to take a lead on the issue.
He rattled off National's known climate policies.
Vera Alves
Now onto climate change.
How much would it cost?
Vera Alves
Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon both committed to reducing the bowel cancer screening age Australia’s level, of 50 or 45 if a test is requested.
How much would it cost?
We can put together a rough estimate from currently available figures.
In Budget 2022, the Government extended free bowel cancer screening to Māori and Pacific people to people aged between 50 and 60 (it is currently 60-75 for non-Māori and Pacific).
It cost $36m over four years ($9m a year) and was said to give 60,000 people a test a year - $150 a test.
Stats population data says there are 653,940 people in the 50-60 age bracket - 593,940 if you exclude the Māori and Pacific already funded.
That’s about $98m for each one of those people to get an annual test, half if they are only tested once every two years (as is the case under the current policy).
$392m over four year forecast period or $196m over the period for a test every two years.
FACT CHECK
Vera Alves
Luxon claimed "I’m not tolerating an education system where 40 per cent of kids don’t show up at school regularly" and Hipkins said "that's not true."
Education stats show in Term 1, 59.5 per cent of children attended school 90 per cent of more of the time.
A further 23.3 per cent attended 80-90 per cent of time, and 17 per cent attended less than 80 per cent of the time.
So probably a win for Hipkins on that one.
Vera Alves
Going back to Luxon's claims regarding school attendance rates, it is worth resharing this insightful column by Herald senior writer Simon Wilson:
Vera Alves
Hipkins called out Luxon on that, saying the rainbow community was not all about mental health issues.
Vera Alves
Luxon said he would help the rainbow community and high suicide rates by having a mental health commissioner.
STORY CONTINUES
Sims and Act’s Felix Poole, who garnered 1 per cent of support in the September 24 poll, also featured in the debate.
As for the party vote, 30 per cent said they would vote National, 21 per cent Labour and 19 per cent Greens.
There were 17 per cent undecided.
When asked what Auckland Central voters believed the most pressing issue was, law and order was overwhelmingly the most popular response with 33 per cent. The other issues voters were concerned about were the cost of living (9 per cent), housing (9 per cent) and public transport (11 per cent).
This comes after a spate of high-profile crimes in the Auckland CBD, including two people shot dead and 10 others injured at a high-rise construction in July. The shooter, 24-year-old Matu Reid, was also killed during an exchange of gunfire with police.
Mere weeks after this tragedy, two men were gunned down during an altercation on Auckland’s lower Queen St, with the shooter then fleeing the scene on a scooter on August 3. One of the men died, the other was critically injured.
Auckland City has also become a hot spot for ram raids and smash-and-grab-style robberies.
The results come after Monday’s Newshub-Reid Research poll which showed a surge of support for Christopher Luxon for preferred prime minister, but he would need to pick up the phone and call Winston Peters to form a Government.
Labour’s tumble continued in that poll but only slightly - down to 26.5 per cent, a tiny slide of 0.3 points.
National has also fallen slightly, down 1.8 points to 39.1 per cent.
The Green Party rose 1.9 points to 14.2 per cent, one of their best poll performances.
Act fell 1.3 points to 8.8 per cent.
Crucially, New Zealand First is up 1.9 points to 5.2 per cent - enough to enter Parliament.
Auckland Central
Geography: Central Auckland from Herne Bay to the Domain, including Eden Terrace, plus Waiheke and Great Barrier islands.
History: Labour stronghold 1919-2008, except 1993 when Sandra Lee won for the Alliance. Nikki Kaye won for National in 2008 and held the seat for four terms. Since Lee, women have always won the seat.
Leading party candidates and their list places: Mahesh Muralidhar (National) 43, Felix Poole (Act) 25, Oscar Sims (Labour) 63, Damian Sycamore (TOP) 8, Chloe Swarbrick (Greens) 3.
2020 results
Candidate vote: Chloe Swarbrick (G) 36 per cent, Helen White (L) 33 per cent, Emma Mellow (N) 28 per cent. Winning margin: 1068.
Party vote: Labour 46 per cent, National 21 per cent, Greens 19 per cent, Act 8 per cent.
5 things to know about the electorate
1. 55 per cent born overseas (highest in NZ).
2. Highest proportion in NZ of residents aged 25-34; lowest under 15.
3. 39 per cent home ownership (NZ 65 per cent).
4. 32 per cent households have no car (NZ 7 per cent).
5. 25 per cent have no heating (NZ 4 per cent).
Data: Census, Electoral Commission and NZ Parliament.
Rachel Maher is an Auckland-based reporter who covers breaking news. She has worked for the Herald since 2022.