Election 2023: National and Act could govern in Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll, Hipkins responds to recent poor results
Labour continues to trail National in a new political poll released today.
Labour is on 27 per cent in the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll - no change from last month.
The party is well behind National which is at 35 per cent, again unchanged.
Act has risen one point to 14 per cent, the Greens are also up one to 13 per cent.
Te Pāti Māori are on 3 per cent, which is no change from last month. NZ First is on 4 per cent, down two points from last month.
On those numbers, National and Act could govern comfortably alone with 64 seats. NZ First would be out of Parliament.
Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon are once again equal in the preferred prime minister stakes, with 25 per cent each.
Meanwhile, Chris Hipkins said his election campaign is “only just ramping up”, when asked about Labour’s poor poll result yesterday.
The party recorded one of its worst Talbot Mills Corporate Poll results since entering Government. The poll, released to the Herald yesterday, had Labour falling to 30 per cent. That was down from 32 per cent last month.
Hipkins said, while on the campaign trail this morning, that National had been campaigning far longer while he had been focused on “being Prime Minister”.
He said there was a “huge undecided vote” out there, and he was looking forward to speaking to more of the public about Labour’s policies.
Starting his day at the Wellington Chamber of Commerce business breakfast, Hipkins talked up a Budget 2023 promise to turn the capital into a science city with research hubs.
It capped off an economically-focused week, which saw Hipkins address a major BusinessNZ conference in Wellington and deliver a Bloomberg address in Auckland.
He later was given a stern message by a business owner - lower personal tax rates. Hipkins was visiting Quay Marine in Wellington, a repair shop which helps fix boats like the Cook Strait ferries.
STORY CONTINUES AFTER THE LIVE BLOG
National’s foreign buyers tax finds an unlikely sceptic - Sir John Key
Royce
National’s plan to tax foreign buyers has found an unlikely critic: former prime minister Sir John Key, who made critical remarks about the feasibility of such a tax when he was prime minister.
When asked about the comments on Friday, Key told the Herald: “FTAs [Free Trade Agreements] and tax laws are very complicated and subject to the way they are drafted. An expert would need to look at all this to firstly make an assessment.
“That said, many countries New Zealand has existing FTAs with have implemented taxes aimed at foreign buyers including Australia. In both New South Wales and Queensland this exact tax applies to Kiwis. I know this to be true having personally paid it,” he said.
Read the full story here:
On the Campaign: False claims, literacy changes and safety concerns on the campaign trail
Natasha Gordon
On today's episode of On the Campaign, NZ Herald deputy political editor Thomas Coughlan highlights some of the controversies Labour has already faced over claims they have made on social media - saying that the moves appear "uncoordinated" but paint a picture of "absolute desperation" as the party struggles in the polls.
Plus, Media Insider's Shayne Currie discusses his piece on safety concerns for media on the campaign trail.
Natasha Gordon
Natasha Gordon
Christopher Luxon and Erica Stanford at the 'transformational' structured literacy announcement
Natasha Gordon
Christopher Luxon speaking at a school in Tauranga said Labour's economic mismanagement meant New Zealand was the only economy in the Asia Pacific in a recession.
Luxon announced an education policy promising minimum literacy standards
"I feel very strongly about education," Luxon said, noting his parents left school at 15 but were able to send him to University.
"Chris Hipkins as education minister despite spending $5b more on education... achievement has just got worse," Luxon said.
He said schools needed minimum standards of what is taught in reading, writing, maths and science.
"The problem in New Zealand is our literacy rates have been steadily declining in recent years," Luxon said.
Schools in low-decile schools are two years behind high-decile counterparts.
Luxon said structured literacy would be mandatory.
Education spokeswoman Erica Stanford said that while some schools were using structured literacy approaches, not all were.
"Too many children are using a mix of different approaches that are smashed together that are not consistent" she said.
Stanford said "structured literacy interventions" would be given to children who needed "extra help".
Stanford said that 80 per cent of youth offenders had poor literacy.
Standford said the message from teachers was that structured literacy was "transformational".
Stanford said the "balanced literacy approach" was a "mish mash" of techniques that did not work very well. She said the structured literacy approach was far more effective.
"I haven't seen a single piece of research that shows the balanced literacy approach is the right way to go," Stanford said.
National is proposing a 'Literacy Guarantee'
Natasha Gordon
National is proposing a “Literacy Guarantee” in which schools will be forced to adopt a structured approach for teaching reading.
Education spokeswoman Erica Stanford said it would build on the party’s current policy of requiring one hour of reading, writing and maths is taught everyday.
Stanford said New Zealand’s literacy rates had been declining in recent decades. Currently, after eight years of schooling, only 56 per cent of pupils are able to read as well as they should for their age, she said.
“Further, kids in low-decile schools are almost two years behind their peers in high-decile schools.”
The suggested approach would teach reading in an “explicit and systematic way, starting with the smallest units of sound and building from there”.
“Mountains of evidence shows it is the most effective method to equip children with strong reading skills. However, not all schools currently use it.
“National will not play Russian roulette with our children’s future by leaving the fundamentals of reading to chance."
"Under National, schools will receive funding to engage a structured literacy provider to effectively deliver the approach in classrooms under the guarantee.”
The policy is costed at $60.5 million over four years.
The policy involves short phonics checks for Year 2 students to inform parents and teachers about each child’s reading progress.
Extra support will be available and knowledge of how to teach structured literacy will be a requirement of primary teacher certification.
The policy would be phased in, starting with Year 1-3s in 2025, and being used for all students up to Year 6 by the 2027 school year.
Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll
Anneka
Labour is on 27 per cent in the latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll - no change from last month.
The party is well behind National which is on 35 per cent, again unchanged.
Act has risen one point to 14 per cent, the Greens are also up one 13.
Te Pāti Māori are on 3 per cent, which is no change on last month.
NZ First are on 4 per cent, down two points on last month.
On those numbers, National and Act could govern comfortably alone with 64 seats. NZ First would be out of Parliament.
Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon are once again equal as preferred prime minister with 25 per cent each
Labour promises retrofit rebates
Anneka
Labour has promised to offer rebates of up to $18,000 for households that undertake a full deep retrofit, full insulation upgrade or electrification for existing homes.
Labour spokesperson for Building and Construction and Energy and Resources, Megan Woods, announced today says a Labour Government would help Kiwi households to be more energy efficient and reduce emissions from household energy use,
“Warmer, dryer homes have massive potential to help decrease energy demands, and therefore emissions, especially when you swap out gas appliances."
The rebate pilot would be introduced over three years.
“Everyone deserves to live in a warm, dry home. We know much of New Zealand’s housing stock is energy inefficient. The rebate scheme announced today will reduce emissions, bring down household energy bills, build demand for deep retrofits, and grow jobs,” Woods said.
For many homes, a deep retrofit may not be required, particularly if the home already runs on electricity. These homes will be eligible for an insulation rebate of up to $7,000.
Eliminating gas from New Zealand homes and moving to electricity has the potential to reduce our annual carbon emissions by around 250,000 tonnes if replacements are made with direct electric heaters and hot water cylinders, Labour says. That’s the equivalent of taking over 92 thousand cars off the road. Up to $3,000 will be provided to households to move off gas entirely.
“Energy efficiency is often called the ‘first fuel’ in clean energy transitions, providing some of the quickest and most cost-effective emissions reductions while lowering household energy bills and strengthening energy security," Woods said. "These rebates make energy efficiency a possibility for everyday Kiwi homeowners.
“This builds on initiatives we have already delivered in Government, including the 100,000 retrofits undertaken through the Warmer Kiwi Homes programme for lower income New Zealanders, and the Healthy Homes standards for renters.
“This Labour policy is a win - win for Kiwi householders, and for the environment."
Anneka
Anneka
Anneka
Audrey Young: Dodgy claims mar week one of election campaign
Anneka
A series of mistruths and hyperbole by Labour MPs has produced a narrative of them being fast and loose with the truth.
Anneka
Luxon presented gold medals to the Tauranga intermediate school girls team and to the Te Puke intermediate boys team for the rugby sevens AIMS games Championship.
PHOTO / ALEX CAIRNS
Anneka
Christopher Luxon today at Blake Park in Mount Maunganui. PHOTO / ALEX CAIRNS
Explained: Would axing Clean Car Discount pump the brakes on EV uptake?
Vera Alves
National left the nation’s electric vehicle community with much to chew on this week when it announced it would dump the Government’s clean car discount if elected – while promising 10,000 more EV charging stations. Jamie Morton explains the big picture.
High-profile victim advocate says Govt’s stalking announcement gave victims ‘false hope’
Vera Alves
A high-profile victim advocate says Labour’s announcement it is considering criminalising stalking lacked substance and gave victims “false hope” and “false expectations”.
Vera Alves
Sam Uffindell, Tom Rutherford, and Christopher Luxon watching a game of rugby sevens. PHOTO / ALEX CAIRNS
Vera Alves
Stacey Fluhler and Chris Luxon at the AIMS Games. Photo / ALEX CAIRNS
Vera Alves
Luxon cycling on a static Zespri AIMS games bike - which is connected to a blender to make the “perfect smoothie”. PHOTO / ALEX CAIRNS
Chris Luxon talks to AIMS competitors in Mount Maunganui
Vera Alves
National party leader Christopher Luxon has arrived at the AIMS games in Mount Maunganui.
Luxon was welcomed by AIMS games trust chairman Henk Popping and tournament director Kelly Schiscka.
He is accompanied by Bay of Plenty national candidate Tom Rutherford and Tauranga MP and National candidate Sam Uffindell.
Luxon is speaking to competitors, shaking their hands, asking what they are competing in, how much practise they’ve done for their respective sports, and how far they’ve travelled for the Games.
Luxon is asking the students if they will be watching the All Blacks game tomorrow morning against France and what they think the score will be.
'Nobody will be fired' - Chris Hipkins says after OIA breach
Vera Alves
On a recent breach of the Official Information Act by his office and Ombudsman ruling that he apologise, Chris Hipkins said he had not had a chance to read it yet but accepted the issues raised.
Nobody would be fired for the incident, he said.
O’Connor, the incumbent Ōhariu MP but who is up against National deputy leader Nicola Willis, said he was not taking anything for granted and it was an “equal start”.
Chris Hipkins says he is confident in his party's tax policies
Vera Alves
Hipkins was visiting businesses and meeting locals in the Wellington Ōhariu electorate today with local MP and candidate Greg O’Connor.
Some of the people they spoke to pushed Labour on personal income tax breaks.
Hipkins said that was a topic of discussion, but he was also able to discuss with them things taxes paid for such as apprenticeship programmes.
He said he was confident in his party’s tax policies - including being able to introduce GST off fruit and vegetables by April 1.
He said now was not the time for wider income tax breaks as he was “not willing” to cut into public services.
Chris Hipkins says the election campaign is 'only just ramping up'
Vera Alves
Responding to recent poor polls for Labour and himself as preferred Prime Minister, Labour leader Chris Hipkins said the election campaign was “only just ramping up”.
National had been campaigning far longer while he had been focused on “being Prime Minister”.
He said there was a “huge undecided vote” out there, and he was looking forward to speaking to more of the public about Labour’s policies.
New Zealand's 53rd Parliament officially dissolved
Vera Alves
New Zealand's 53rd Parliament has concluded with its dissolution made official this morning on the steps of Parliament.
About 500 people gathered in glorious Wellington sunshine to watch as the New Zealand Herald of Arms Extraordinary to the King, Phillip O’Shea, descended the steps to the sounds of trumpets, a tuba and a trombone ringing out across the grounds.
O'Shea stated the confirmation of Governor-General Dame Cindy Kiro to dissolve Parliament by signing a proclamation.
That was then certified by three witnesses: the Clerk of the House of Representatives, the Deputy Clerk and the Clerk-Assistant.
At the end of his short speech, O'Shea proclaimed "God save the King". There was one person in the crowd who responded in kind.
The ceremony was finished with the singing of the national anthem.
Chris Hipkins talks tax rates on the campaign trail
Vera Alves
Labour leader Chris Hipkins was given stern message on the cakmping trail today: lower personal tax rates
.Hipkins was visiting Quay Marine in Wellington, a repair shop which helps fix boats like the Cook Strait ferries.
Hipkins toured the factory and then disappeared into the tea room with the business owner Alan Collins for an extended chat.
Media were not invited but a source in the room said a frank discussion about tax rates took place.
Collins later told media that high income tax rates were making it difficult for staff who worked overtime. They meant overtime was not worth it for staff.
“Less taxation… if I get the boys to work overtime they go into the next tax bracket. It’s just not worth it to work,” he said.
Whanganui’s NZ First candidate William Arnold confident of party's 'resurgence'
Vera Alves
Vera Alves
Missed the big events of yesterday's campaign? Catch up with On the Campaign - the Herald's daily election podcast!
Chris Hipkins meets friendly dog in Wellington
Vera Alves
A lighthearted moment in the election coverage (we need those too!) to show Hipkins meeting a very good boy in Wellington.
Welcome to today's live updates on the 2023 election campaign
Vera Alves
If you're only join us now, here is what you may have missed:
- National Police Spokesperson Mark Mitchell said he is "disgusted by where this government has taken us as a country".
- Prime Minister Chris Hipkins started his day at the Wellington Chamber of Commerce business breakfast.
- The Prime Minister has hinted at changes make it easier for refugees to bring family members to New Zealand.
- Hipkins has been ordered to apologise for breach of Official Information Act.
- In the battle to win over young voters, politicians are embracing social media, with TikTok emerging as a new battleground in this year’s general election.
For other news and updates, on the 2023 election and other topics, visit nzherald.co.nz.
Vera Alves
Chris Luxon and Simon Bridges in Hamilton this morning. PHOTO / MIKE SCOTT
Chris Hipkins ordered to apologise for breach of Official Information Act
Vera Alves
Hipkins says it will be easier for refugees to bring family members to New Zealand
Vera Alves
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has hinted at changes make it easier for refugees to bring family members to New Zealand.
Taking questions at KiwiClass in Wellington, which helps refugees with language skills, Hipkins was asked about the challenge refugees were having bringing family to New Zealand.
He answered by telling the class to keep an eye on future policy announcements as the election campaign rolls on.
Labour reopened the family reunification category allowing people resident in anew Zealand to bring family members.
Labour MP Grant Robertson said that restarting the process took time.
“As we restart the process… it takes some time to get going,” Robertson said.
Labour MP Ibrahim Omer, who is campaigning for the Wellington Central seat, told the class that he understood the process as he was himself in the process of trying to bring his brother to New Zealand.
Chris Luxon has arrived in Hamilton for another day of campaigning
Vera Alves
PHOTO / MIKE SCOTT
Welcome to today's live updates on the 2023 election campaign
Vera Alves
If you're only join us now, here is what you may have missed:
- National Justice Spokesperson Mark Mitchell said he is "disgusted by where this government has taken us as a country".
- Prime Minister Chris Hipkins started his day at the Wellington Chamber of Commerce business breakfast.
- The Prime Minister has hinted at changes make it easier for refugees to bring family members to New Zealand.
- Hipkins has been ordered to apologise for breach of Official Information Act.
- In the battle to win over young voters, politicians are embracing social media, with TikTok emerging as a new battleground in this year’s general election.
For other news and updates, on the 2023 election and other topics, visit nzherald.co.nz.
Vera Alves
The three science hubs funded in the Budget were:
- Climate Change
- Health and pandemic issues
- Technology and Innovation
“For decades we have underinvested in the critical infrastructure,” Hipkins said.
He said Labour had increased transport funding by $5.3b and the Government has prioritised two key strategic transport priorities for Wellington: the route to the airport via the Basin Reserve and through the Mount Victoria Tunnel, and Mass Rapid Transit.
Chris Hipkins: 'There are more Kiwis in work than there have ever been before'
Vera Alves
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins started his day at the Wellington Chamber of Commerce business breakfast.
He talked up a Budget 2023 promise to turn Wellington into a science city with research hubs.
It capped off an economically-focussed week, which saw Hipkins address a major BusinessNZ conference in Wellington and deliver a Bloomberg address in Auckland.
As is often the case on the campaign, Hipkins delivered a version of the business-focussed speech he had given at those earlier events.
He talked up the Government’s record on business: “Currently there are more Kiwis in work than there have ever been before and our economy is 7 per cent bigger than it was before the pandemic.“Wages have grown by 29 per cent since 2017, which is significantly more than inflation,” he said.
He repeated a pledge to lead two trade delegations a year, including one to India within a hundred days of forming a government.
How TikTok could be the social media platform to swing the election
Vera Alves
In the battle to win over young voters, politicians are embracing social media, with TikTok emerging as a new battleground in this year’s general election.
Vanisa Dhiru: The complex terrain of NZ’s election
Vera Alves
'I'm disgusted by where this government has taken us' - National Justice Spokesperson Mark Mitchell
Vera Alves
National Justice Spokesperson Mark Mitchell told Mike Hosking on Newstalk ZB this morning that Labour's announcement that it will add 300 more police officers if elected is "not credible".
Mitchell says it is as if Labour has just woken up to the "gang problem" in New Zealand.
"Having been a frontline police officer, numbers matter without a doubt," he said. "We have an announcement to make on that."
"The Aussies make us look like choir boys in the way they deal with gangs," Mitchell also said.
"I'm disgusted by where this government has taken us as a country. We should be the safest country in the world. We're like a banana republic."
Mitchell says if National wins, they will show that police controls the country, not the gangs.
'Never before have Labour and National both been so rejected by voters simultaneously' - Matthew Hooton
Vera Alves
Vera Alves
Good morning, welcome to another day of the election campaign. We will bring you the latest updates as the political candidates spend another day battling for votes around New Zealand.
STORY CONTINUES
Hipkins toured the factory and then disappeared into the tea room with the business owner Alan Collins for an extended chat. Media were not invited but a source in the room said a frank discussion about tax rates took place. Collins later told media that high-income tax rates were making it difficult for staff who worked overtime. They meant overtime was not worth it for staff.
”Less taxation… if I get the boys to work overtime they go into the next tax bracket. It’s just not worth it to work,” he said.
Hipkins was visiting businesses and meeting locals in the Wellington Ōhariu electorate today with local MP and candidate Greg O’Connor.
Some of the people they spoke to pushed Labour on personal income tax breaks. Hipkins said he was also able to discuss with them things taxes paid for such as apprenticeship programmes. He said he was confident in his party’s tax policies - including being able to introduce GST off fruit and vegetables by April 1.
He said now was not the time for wider income tax breaks as he was “not willing” to cut into public services.
On a recent breach of the Official Information Act by his office and the Ombudsman ruling that he apologise, Hipkins said he had not had a chance to read it yet but accepted the issues raised. Nobody would be fired for the incident, he said.
O’Connor, the incumbent Ōhariu MP but who is up against National deputy leader Nicola Willis, said he was not taking anything for granted and it was an “equal start”.
Meanwhile, Luxon is in Hamilton and Tauranga today. He gave a speech to the NZ Chamber of Commerce Annual Conference in Hamilton before heaidng to the AIMS games in Mount Maunganui.
Luxon was welcomed by AIMS games trust chairman Henk Popping and tournament director Kelly Schiscka. He is accompanied by Bay of Plenty national candidate Tom Rutherford and Tauranga MP and National candidate Sam Uffindell.
New Zealand’s 53rd Parliament concluded with its dissolution made official this morning on the steps of Parliament.
About 500 people gathered in the Wellington sunshine to watch as the New Zealand Herald of Arms Extraordinary to the King, Phillip O’Shea, descended the steps to the sounds of trumpets, a tuba and a trombone ringing out across the grounds. O’Shea stated the confirmation of Governor-General Dame Cindy Kiro to dissolve Parliament by signing a proclamation.
That was then certified by three witnesses: the Clerk of the House of Representatives, the Deputy Clerk and the Clerk-Assistant. At the end of his short speech, O’Shea proclaimed “God save the King”. There was one person in the crowd who responded in kind. The ceremony was finished with the singing of the national anthem.
Poll raises questions
The Talbot Mills Corporate Poll had National on 36 per cent, up one percentage point on the previous poll. The Green Party had jumped two points to 12 per cent. Act had fallen one point to 10 per cent. Based on this poll, NZ First would be back in Parliament on 5.4 per cent.
On those numbers, National would have 45 seats, and Act would have 13. They would need NZ First’s seven seats to govern.
Labour would have 37 seats, the Greens would get 15, and Te Pāti Māori would have three.
Hipkins’ ranking as preferred Prime Minister had plummeted from 34 per cent in the last poll to 28 per cent this month.
Luxon was hot on his heels at 26 per cent. Act leader David Seymour also polled well, hitting 11 per cent; Green co-leaders Marama Davidson and James Shaw scored 4 per cent each.
The poll was taken between August 24 and 30, a period that covered Hipkins’ ruling out governing with NZ First but missed the fallout from National’s tax plan, which was released on August 30.
Crime plan
The Labour leader released the party’s six-point plan to reduce crime, which included a $124 million investment to add 300 more police officers to the front line by 2027/28.
Fifty extra officers would be introduced in the first year and 75 in the second and third years, with the remaining 100 hitting the ground in the 2027/28 year.
Hipkins said the boost in front-line officers meant there was one officer for every 470 Kiwis, which he claimed was the “best ratio in modern history”.
Labour had also promised to investigate adding a new offence to the Crimes Act to address stalking.
It followed the 2022 murder of promising AUT student Farzana Yaqubi by Kanwarpal Singh, who last month was sentenced to 17 years in prison after pleading guilty to murder.
The Herald had earlier revealed Yaqubi had gone to police with concerns she was being harassed two months before she was murdered.
Today, Labour’s policy document acknowledged the need to modernise stalking and harassment laws with the potential to create a stalking offence.
The other new promise concerned gang convoys and could include new legislation to allow the seizure of gang members’ vehicles “without conviction when it is unsafe for police to intervene at the time of the offending, ensuring that gang members don’t get away with breaking the law when it’s difficult to identify the driver of the vehicle, and expanding the scope of police powers so that any breach of road laws by gang members when there are two or more vehicles involved would result in seizure”.
Hipkins described recent gang convoys, like the one in Ōpōtiki in June, as “intolerable”.
“Labour will introduce laws to punish this behaviour and develop new ways to target gang leaders and break their international links.”
On the pink bus
Meanwhile, Act Party leader David Seymour unveiled his bright-pink campaign bus, which he calls “Big Pinky” - and revealed a donor will supply him with a piloted plane to help him get around 75 campaign stops.
Yesterday, Seymour, candidates, supporters and media took the bus - loaned by a supporter - from the Auckland Showgrounds to a political panel at St Paul’s College in Ponsonby.
“We are a little bit concerned that we are actually going to attract as many Barbie fans as Act fans,” Seymour said of the bright pink branding. “But increasingly there’s a cross-over. We think that this bus will be more than Ken-ough.”
Luxon was in Queenstown to announce his promise to build a new “Great Walk” and encourage more young people to come to New Zealand on working holiday visas, as part of his party’s tourism strategy.
Tourism spokesman Joseph Mooney said the party would create a new 80-kilometre Great Walk at Waiau - Toa/Molesworth in the South Island.
The party would also lift the upper age for being allowed a working holiday visa from 30 to 35 years and allow people to apply for a second and third work visa as long as worker shortages continue.
Luxon also promised to electrify the New Zealand cycle trail for e-bikes, with $3m set aside to co-invest in e-bike chargers.
Mooney said the total cost of the tourism package came to $22m over four years, which would be funded through money that was unallocated from the International Visitor Levy, a charge levied on incoming tourists that was brought in by Labour.
Adam Pearse is a political reporter in the NZ Herald press gallery team, based at Parliament. He has worked for NZME since 2018, covering sport and health for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei before moving to the NZ Herald in Auckland, covering Covid-19 and crime.