Election 2023: Labour’s slump continues in latest political poll, National also down while Act and Green Party get boost
Follow our live coverage today on the election campaign trail here
National and Act can govern alone but Winston Peters is also back in Parliament, according to the latest political poll.
Tonight’s 1News Verian poll has National on 37 per cent - down two points on their previous poll - and Act up two points to 12 per cent. The two parties would get 46 and 15 seats respectively - just enough to reach a 61-seat majority in the 120-seat Parliament.
The poll also reveals yet another pathway back for NZ First and party leader Winston Peters, reaching the 5 per cent threshold and potentially delivering the party six.
It is still not good news for Labour, however, with the party dropping another point to 27 per cent and delivering just 34 seats. The Greens are up two points to 12 per cent and 15 seats while the other potential left-bloc party Te Pāti Māori is steady on 3 per cent and returning four seats.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins and National’s Christopher Luxon continue to be neck and neck in the preferred prime minister stakes at 23 per cent each.
David Seymour is next at five per cent and Winston Peters is the next highest on four per cent.
There was 12 per cent of respondents undecided.
According to 1News, it was the worst result for Labour in their polls in six years. Then, Andrew Little was leader and the party had plummeted to 24 per cent.
Hipkins tried to put a positive spin on the numbers, telling 1News National appeared to have peaked and they would look to attract those voters.
Luxon meanwhile told 1News he was not fazed by the dip, stating MMP elections were “always close”.He said he didn’t think the dip was down to concerns over the party’s tax plan including allowing foreigners to buy properties with a specific tax.
Seymour said the party had gone from one to 10 MPs in 2020 “fantastically well” and he would be delighted to increase another 50 per cent.
Green Party co-leader James Shaw said 15 MPs would be their highest-ever result, the previous best being 14.
Peters meanwhile told 1News he believed the results to be an undercount.
Peters has stated he would not work with Labour again, while Luxon has not ruled out working with NZ First, even though Act leader Seymour has indicated he would have difficulty working with Peters.
The poll canvassed 1001 eligible voters between September 16 and 19.
Worst result for Labour in 1News polls in six years
Royce
According to 1News, it was the worst result for Labour in their polls in six years. Then, Andrew Little was the leader and the party had plummeted to 24 per cent.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins tried to put a positive spin on the numbers, telling 1News National appeared to have peaked and they would look to attract those voters.
National's Christopher Luxon meanwhile told 1News he was not fazed by the dip, stating MMP elections were “always close”. He said he didn’t think the dip was down to concerns over the party’s tax plan including allowing foreigners to buy properties with a specific tax.
Act leader David Seymour said the party had gone from one to 10 MPs in 2020 “fantastically well” and he would be delighted to increase another 50 per cent.
Green Party co-leader James Shaw said 15 MPs would be their highest ever result, the previous best being 14.
NZ First leader Winston Peters meanwhile told 1News he believed the results to be an undercount.
Peters has stated he would not work with Labour again, while Luxon has not ruled out working with NZ First, even though Seymour has indicated he would have difficulty working with Peters.
There was 12 per cent of respondents undecided. The poll canvassed 1001 eligible voters between September 16 and 19.
National and Act can govern alone but Winston Peters is also back in Parliament - Poll
Royce
National and Act can govern alone but Winston Peters is also back in Parliament, according to the latest political poll.
Tonight’s 1News Verian poll has National on 37 per cent - down two points on their previous poll - and Act up two points to 12 per cent. The two parties would get 46 and 15 seats respectively - just enough to reach a 61-seat majority in the 120-seat Parliament.
The poll also reveals yet another pathway back for NZ First and party leader Peters, reaching the 5 per cent threshold and potentially delivering the party six seats. It is one of several in recent weeks putting the party, booted out in 2020, back in the fold.
It is still not good news for Labour, however, with the party dropping another point to 27 per cent and delivering just 34 seats. The Greens are up two points to 12 per cent and 15 seats while the other potential left-bloc party Te Pāti Māori is steady on 3 per cent and returning four seats.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins and National’s Christopher Luxon continue to be neck and neck in the preferred prime minister stakes at 23 per cent each.
David Seymour is next at five per cent and Peters is the next highest on four per cent.
Latest political poll to reveal if Labour and Hipkins have turned around slump
Natasha Gordon
The latest political poll at 6pm will reveal whether Labour has turned around its slump, or if National and Act have gained ground - and if NZ First is on track for an almighty return.
Read the full story here:
On the Campaign: Who really won the first televised debate? Plus, education policies and goat visits
Natasha Gordon
Last night's debate was described as "grey, beige, horrid" by one prominent economist - so did the "vanilla" event change much for either Chris? Or have some other parties emerged as the real winners from the debate?
Media Insider and NZ Herald editor at large Shayne Currie gives his analysis on today's episode of On the Campaign.
Hipkins announces Government investment
Natasha Gordon
Earlier, Hipkins arrived at Wairoa airport to speak with Mayor Craig Little and other local representatives about almost $4 million in Government investment in extending the airport runway by 100 metres, restoring a river reserve area and providing accommodation to workers who will assist with the town’s recovery from Cyclone Gabrielle.
Hipkins attempted to travel to Wairoa soon after the cyclone but those attempts were foiled by bad weather and also the runway being too short for the PM’s aircraft.
The announced investment was welcomed by Little and other Wairoa locals.
Little told Hipkins the support the Government had provided was much appreciated, but it was likely the town needed about $7m more to make sure all those whose homes were impacted were assisted.
Following a private meeting between Hipkins, Little and other local reps, Little told journalists he was hopeful the further funding would be provided.
Asked on the topic, Hipkins could be heard saying “never say never”.
Hipkins has admitted the fizzy drink ban claim he made in last night’s debate was incorrect
Natasha Gordon
Hipkins has admitted a claim he made in last night’s debate was incorrect when he said fizzy drinks were banned in primary schools.
During the debate, Hipkins made the claim as he revealed Labour’s intention to apply the ban in secondary schools, saying evidence for its extension was in the existing ban.
Today, while standing at Wairoa Airport, Hipkins fessed up, saying that he had misunderstood the result of work done by the Ministry of Education on whether fizzy drinks should be banned in primary schools.
Hipkins confirmed Labour’s position was to ban fizzy drinks in schools.
Challenged on how students could leave school at break time and get them from the dairy before returning to school, Hipkins said it wouldn’t be possible for schools to ban that activity.
National proposed banning cellphones at school, something Hipkins - a former education minister - had repeatedly criticised.
Asked how the two were different, Hipkins said devices in school did have some educational benefit while fizzy drinks had no health benefit to students.
It comes off the back of Labour’s policy of free dental for under 30-year-olds.
TVNZ reveals how many Kiwis tuned into the first leaders’ debate
Natasha Gordon
New Zealand is in the thick of election campaigning and it was never more obvious than during last night’s first live leaders’ debate between Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon.
Read the full story here:
James Shaw tours an energy efficient home
Natasha Gordon
Greens Co-leader, James Shaw, tours the energy-efficient home of Jenny Marshall.
Photo / Michael Craig
Labour alleges National needs a massive climate tax on households - they’re not entirely wrong
Natasha Gordon
This week Labour alleged a “huge hole” in National’s climate budget, which would see the cost of petrol rise 40 cents a litre thanks to rising emissions prices.
Read the full story here:
Andrew Little announces temporary package of further support for exploited migrant workers
Natasha Gordon
Andrew Little is talking to the media, announcing a temporary package of further support for exploited migrant workers and strengthening immigration rules.
Labour has promised to put in place a six-month programme of short-term basic financial support for victims, helping with accommodation and essential living costs.
Little said a review into claims about the accredited work visa that processes weren't working - there will be results on that review in December.
Exploited migrants are entitled to a visa which allows them to access the above support, it will be in place until March next year.
Some permanent changes to the accredited employment work visa include a business with 20 or fewer workers removing a 90-day trial.
"Migrant workers are already under a number of restrictions, its not too much to ask the employer who they ask to travel distance to work here is a good decision, and shouldn't need recourse," he said.
There will be a requirement that employers, who are a labour hiring agency, applying for accreditation must have no less than 35% of its workforce as NZ domestic workers.
Little said there are roughly 250 migrants on the protection visa, he said he can't quantify how many migrants might be affected by exploitative visa scams or working conditions across the country.
Photos / George Heard
Act wants to cut funding for poorly-performing ECEs; rank all schools using standardised tests
Natasha Gordon
The Act Party wants to have education checks on 4- and 5-year-olds and a new ranking system for all schools, so parents can see which ones are high- and low-scoring.
Read the full story here:
Hipkins on cannabis decriminalisation
Natasha Gordon
On cannabis decriminalisation, Hipkins said it wasn't a no.1 priority for him.
He voted yes in the referendum.
Hipkins says he had practised for the debate with a friend acting as Luxon
Natasha Gordon
On the debate, he says he was respectful and highlighted what we want to do and what National wants to do.
Luxon was content to speak over Jessica Mutch-Mckay and over me, says Hipkins.
I think people at home would prefer to hear what people have to say, rather than a lot of people talking over each other, he says.
He had practiced for the debate with a friend acting as Luxon, he says.
The person who was acting as Luxon was probably better than answering the questions than Luxon, says Hipkins.
The friend wasn't a former MP.
No, I don't think so, he said when asked if the debate was boring.
Hipkins on other topics
Natasha Gordon
On banning fizzy drinks, it had worked well in primary schools, said Hipkins.
National had previously undone the healthy food guidelines put in place by Helen Clark's Government, said Hipkins.
The cellphone ban proposal by National was entirely wrong - schools can ban cellphones now, he said.
Hipkins said He has an EV.
About 15 people have been identified with Cryptosporidium. Authorities hadn't been able to identify the source, he said.
For most people the immediate risk is dehydration. Our water infrastructure needs a lot of work and our Government has set out a plan to do it, said Hipkins.
No significant damage reported by NEMA and local authorities on the Canterbury quake this morning, says Hipkins.
"At the moment it doesn't look like any further response needed is down there.
"Quakes are unsettling and a reminder we live on the ring of fire."
Chris Hipkins speaks on National's tax plan
Natasha Gordon
In a media announcement after Labour's cyclone plan, Hipkins speaks on National's tax plan.
Hipkins says, Chris Luxon needs to be upfront to Kiwis about what is going to be cut.
Luxon is saying he'll find savings beyond what Labour said they would and would not say how, he says.
When asked about the latest Labour ad not having him in it, he said it was about Labour's response to National's tax plan.
"We have been very clear over the last few weeks that the Nationals tax plan doesn't add up."
New Zealanders could see cuts to services including education and health, He said.
$15 million to raise about 200 homes at risk of future flooding
Natasha Gordon
Chris Hipkins has approved $15 million to raise about 200 homes at risk of future flooding. More than half of this is expected to be spent in the Tairāwhiti settlement of Te Karaka, lifting about 100 homes there.
“Te Karaka was badly hit during Cyclone Gabrielle when the Waipāoa River flooded, breaching its stopbanks in multiple places and destroying properties,” Chris Hipkins said.
“The funding I’m announcing today is to lift at risk houses in the township to reduce vulnerability and mitigate significant risks. The mana whenua of Te Karaka, Te Aitanga-a-Māhaki, have driven this project, and I want to thank them for the work they have done on this.
“This work is critical for Tairāwhiti iwi and homeowners who have been displaced due to the recent weather events. While broader and more complex resilience measures may take a bit longer, raising houses provides an immediate and tangible solution that significantly reduces risk.
“There is more work to do in cyclone and flood affected regions and the Government continues to support those regions as they rebuild and recover,” Chris Hipkins said.
The $15 million announced today is from the $100 million funding announced as part of Budget 2023. This fund was specifically set aside for practical flood protection infrastructure like stopbanks as well as other local measures that can protect communities from flooding.
Hipkins faces off against tertiary students in combat PlayStation game
Natasha Gordon
Labour leader Chris Hipkins has been pushed outside of his comfort zone in his first event in Gisborne today, facing off against some tertiary film students at a multiplayer combat PlayStation game.
Hipkins, renowned for his love of DIY, looked more than a little lost with controller in hand.
With a bit of assistance by one of the students, Hipkins had chosen his fighter. His success was short-lived, he was the first of the four competitors to perish.
His economic development minister Barbara Edmonds was kind in her assessment.
“Everyone has talents,” she said sympathetically but with a smile.
“[He lasted] longer than I was expecting.”
One of his opponents, an outspoken 19-year-old named Te Aroha Pokai Harrison-Kaa, said the Labour leader’s video game proficiency wouldn’t change her support.
“It doesn’t matter, I’m still voting for you.”
Harrison-Kaa wasn’t shy to share her assessment of Hipkins’ performance at last night’s TV leaders debate.
“I liked your debate last night, you showed it to that Luxon,” she told the Prime Minister, while wearing a cape intended to replicate the outfit of a particular Anime witch.
New Zealand’s ‘serious concern’ at allegation Indian Government assassinated Canadian activist
Natasha Gordon
Mahuta to told the Herald she was “aware of the ongoing investigation into the death of Mr Nijar and Prime Minister Trudeau’s comments in Parliament overnight."
Read the full story here:
Andrew Little acknowledges the importance of the defence force
Vera Alves
Speaking at Burnham Army Base, Andrew Little said the new facility's construction was an acknowledgment of the importance the defence force played in New Zealand.
"What you do matters and you are valued, today is another expression of that as we begin construction today."
Minister Little has now been given a tour of the building site, where the $70 million facility will be constructed.
Vera Alves
Spotted in Cox's Bay...
Vera Alves
Photo / Robert Calvert
Vera Alves
Defence Minister, Andrew Little has arrived at Burnham Army Base with a delegation for the groundbreaking ceremony of a new maintenance facility.
He arrived to a karakia and mihi whakatau, greeted by fifty soldiers and officers gathered in the former facility - dating back to WWII.
Photos / George Heard
Vera Alves
"It should take one year to consent it and two years to build it," Luxon said about the consenting progress of renewable energy.
Vera Alves
Luxon said the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is not proper or functional at the moment.
"The scheme loses credibility... and that's what the government has done."
Vera Alves
"Everyone in New Zealand knows they aren't feeling safe in their own homes, businesses and communities," Luxon said.
Vera Alves
He said personally he has embraced recycling, his wife has an EV and he has a scooter.
Vera Alves
"Go back and look at my record at Air New Zealand," Luxon said when asked whether he could be trusted to address climate change.
Vera Alves
"The bigger priority is a bunch of other health needs we have in this country," Luxon said on why he wouldn't commit to banning sugary drinks on school but would ban cellphones.
Vera Alves
He repeatedly refused to say whether National's tax package might be on the negotiating table, but it was "really important to us".
Vera Alves
Major parties in the past have said that certain policies wouldn't be up for negotiation in any post-election negotiations.
"I'm not negotiating the coalition agreement with the media this side of the election. We have to win the election first," Luxon said.
Vera Alves
Luxon said he will commit to the house building track for Kainga Ora the current Labour government has started.
Vera Alves
Luxon refused to say whether National's tax plan may or may not be altered in post-election talks to accommodate Act.
Vera Alves
"We designed our tax plan for the squeezed incomes... for other beneficiaries, there is other government support," Luxon said on whether his tax plan would help homeless people.
Vera Alves
National Party leader Christopher Luxon said he is not being disingenuous by quoting the top numbers of the spectrum of how much people would save under his tax plan.
Luxon said he has not read ACTs tax plan.
He refused to discuss post-election decisions or coalition agreements.
"No, we're doing our tax plan, I like our one."
Vera Alves
Christopher Luxon milking goats. Photo / Claire Trevett
Vera Alves
National Party leader Christopher Luxon visiting Oete Goat farm south of Auckland. Photos / Michael Neilson
Winston Peters’ trip to Greymouth scrapped
Vera Alves
Winston Peters’ trip to Greymouth today has been scrapped.
The New Zealand First leader was due to fly into Hokitika on the West Coast from Christchurch this morning ahead of a public meeting at Greymouth’s Regent Theatre.
However, his flight has been cancelled due to bad weather. A heavy rain warning is currently in place for Greymouth, MetService says.
Peeni Henare seeks fourth term in Tāmaki Makaurau
Vera Alves
Labour’s record on Māori housing is a key platform in Peeni Henare’s campaign to keep his Tāmaki seat.
Mass immigration isn’t working. We need to get more Kiwis into jobs - Richard Prebble
Vera Alves
Auckland University economics professor Robert MacCulloch says “if total GDP is only growing at a bit over 1 per cent and the population is growing at 2 per cent, then GDP per capita must be declining (since GDP per capita equals total GDP over population size)”.
David Seymour struggles in search for dismal economy and crime wave in Remuera
Vera Alves
If David Seymour is trying to prove New Zealand’s economy is grinding to a halt and crime is rampant, Remuera is evidently not the best place to visit.
Click below to read how it went.
Vera Alves
Former Labour MP Iain Lees-Galloway told Breakfast that last night’s debate was a good demonstration of why the minor parties were doing well in the polls.
“People are looking at the two leaders and going, what’s the difference between the two parties?”
Vera Alves
Luxon is standing by a guarantee from last night’s debate that he would make no cuts to health or education - but says that was referring to the total budget, not to jobs.
He told TVNZ’s Breakfast any money made from cuts to back office jobs would be redeployed to the front line.
“I would take 200 comms people at Health NZ, for example, and I would get 200 extra nurses.”
He also reiterated his approval of the “by Māori, for Māori” model of service delivery but not the creation of two separate systems depending on ethnicity or co-governance.
Regarding free lunches in schools, Luxon clarified that National would roll that funding over because he was very supportive of the programme.
“The question is, can it be more effective? I think there’s some good questions that we could ask about waste and what’s the right delivery model.”
Luxon was unable to name a leader he admired last night but this morning named former US secretary of state Madeleine Albright, who he met when she was in her 80s.
Luxon on petrol prices and Auckland regional fuel tax
Vera Alves
Luxon was asked on the AM show what he would do, as Prime Minister, to try and tackle a potential petrol cost of $3.50 a litre.
“New Zealand is really at the mercy of a global oil crisis, but National has said we’re going to remove the Auckland regional fuel tax and, in our first term, we will not increase fuel taxes until we get inflation under control.”
“I would leave the fuel excise tax at its current level.”
Luxon said he hasn’t had the chance to read Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown’s new manifesto, but the party is a supporter of city and regional deals.
He proposed Brown and him meeting after the election and creating a city deal to ensure key sets of infrastructure projects for the next ten years.
“It’s a smarter way of working than the Punch and Judy show as it is today.”
Luxon speaks to the AM Show about the debate
Vera Alves
National Party leader Chris Luxon told the AM Show that he really enjoyed last night’s first leaders debate.
“I’ll leave it for the viewers to decide who won.”
Luxon said each section of the debate feels quick when delivering it, but he was was able to get his message out.
“But when you strip it all back, it all boils down to the economy, who’s best to run it. Once you get a good economy, you can get better public services and better infrastructure.”
He said the Newshub debate next week will be a different dynamic because Patrick Gower is a different moderator, so it’s necessary to prepare differently for each debate.
When asked whether he is worried about losing Simon O’Connor if the latter doesn’t win the Tāmaki electorate, Luxon said O’Connor is a great local MP.
“I’ve watched him up close to see all the work he does for his constituents, and so I want people to go out and vote for him and the National Party.”
“Tāmaki voters will be weighing up who does a great job for us and advocates for local people and local issues.”
Vera Alves
Tāmaki MP Simon O’Connor said on the AM Show, Luxon “cleaned up” last night’s leaders debate. “He was great.”
While Labour candidate Fesaitu Solomone said Hipkins did really well.
“In terms of the policies we are working on, we want to make sure people are thriving and we want equity within our communities. We have so much to work on.”
Did you watch the leaders debate last night?
Vera Alves
Steve Braunias did.
Vera Alves
Mōrena, everyone! Welcome to another day of the election campaign. Stay tuned as we bring you live updates from the campaign trail throughout the day.
The last was published a week ago, which had National on 39 per cent - up two percentage points on the previous poll in August - and Act on 10 per cent, which was down three points.
On those numbers, National would have got 49 of the 120 seats in the House. Together with Act’s 13, the two parties would surpass the 61-seat majority needed to govern.
In that poll, Labour had dropped one point to 28 per cent from the previous poll in August, while the Greens were on 10 per cent and Te Pāti Māori three per cent.
Winston Peters’ New Zealand First meanwhile hit the 5 per cent threshold to enter Parliament, up one point from the last poll.
The poll was previously conducted monthly but is now being done weekly in the lead-up to the October 14 election.
The latest polling period will likely cover off the major scrutiny over National’s tax numbers, and the first two weeks of campaigning for political parties.
The previous poll also had Labour leader Chris Hipkins and National leader Christopher Luxon tied for preferred prime minister on 23 per cent. It followed a Newshub poll which also had the pair equal as preferred PM.
It comes after the leaders of the two largest parties squared off for the first TVNZ leaders’ debate on Monday night.
Hipkins said he backed using ethnicity to reduce health inequities for Māori, saying there’s nothing to be afraid of and opposing parties are using “race-baiting politics”.
Luxon said health services and access had to be based on need, not race.
“I’m not afraid of anything,” he retorted to Hipkins.
The pair clashed in a sometime-prickly encounter, canvassing an array of issues such as law and order, the economy, tax, potential coalition arrangements and the Covid-19 response.
Back on the campaign trail today, Hipkins visited the cyclone-hit regions of Gisborne, Wairoa and Hawke’s Bay today, while Luxon was in rural south Auckland on a goat farm before heading to Invercargill.