Election 2023: National up, Labour plunges - new political poll reveals impact of first days on campaign trail
Labour has dropped well into the 20s in the latest political poll - while National has hit the 40s.
Tonight’s Newshub Reid Research Poll shows Labour on 26.8 per cent, down 5.5 points, while National polled at 40.9 per cent, up 4.3 points.
The Greens were up 2.7 points to 12.3 per cent, while Act dropped 2 points to 10.1 per cent.
On those numbers, National and Act could form a government earning 66 seats (National with 53 and Act with 13).
Labour’s 34 seats, 16 from the Greens and four from the Māori Party would only give the left bloc 54.
Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon were equal in the preferred prime minister stakes on 22.5 per cent. Hipkins had dropped 1.5 points with Luxon rising 6.6 points.
New Zealand First was close to the five per cent threshold to enter Parliament, sitting on 4.6 per cent in tonight’s poll.
The poll was conducted between September 3-9, including the time when many of Labour’s main election promises were announced.
It comes as both Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon launched into busy days on the campaign trail today with the Labour leader in Nelson, while the National leader was north of Wellington with some time in the Ōhāriu electorate that his deputy leader Nicola Willis hopes to win.
The last Newshub Reid Research poll in August found National and Act could govern alone. National had jumped 1.3 percentage points on the previous poll to 36.6 per cent and Act was up by the same amount to 12.1 per cent.
Labour had dipped 3.6 points to 32.3 per cent.
However, Hipkins still had a strong lead over Luxon in the preferred Prime Minister stakes, sitting at 24 per cent over Luxon’s 15.9 per cent.
Today’s campaign activities have largely been shadowed by the anticipation of Treasury’s Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal update (Prefu), which provides a telling view of the state of the Government’s books.
In Treasury’s interim financial statements for the 11 months to May, the fiscal position (released on July 5) had deteriorated by $2.1b when compared with forecasts published in the May Budget.
Willis, also National’s finance spokeswoman, said she would be releasing the party’s fiscal plan in the weeks after the Prefu but before advance voting began on October 2.
She said she would take time to go over what the Treasury published and ensure her plan was checked by external assessors.
Willis today expressed confidence her proposed tax plan, which has been criticised for allegedly dodgy costings, would not be impacted by Pthe Prefu.
Hipkins, speaking from Nelson where he made a dentist visit in light of Labour’s free dental policy for under 30-year-olds, said National’s refusal to release some modelling behind its tax package showed the party had something to hide.
“The fact that they’re not releasing the costings is clearly a sign that they know they don’t add up. If they were really rock solid in their costings, they’d be saying more than ‘just trust us’.”
Hipkins accepted the Government’s finances were in a “challenging position”, but he said the economy was turning a corner with inflation coming down.
Asked if Labour might need to adjust its election promises depending on what was revealed tomorrow, he said: “I’m confident that what we’re putting before the electorate will balance, it will be paid for.”
On the $4 billion that the Government had already asked public service bosses to trim, he said: “None of both public sector leaders are delighted to have to reduce the baselines, but we’ve made $4 billion worth of savings that we think we can do without cutting into the bone of public service.”
Hipkins and Luxon found common ground rejecting New Zealand First leader Winston Peters, who recently claimed Māori were not indigenous to New Zealand.
Hipkins said it was “another example of the sorts of divisive policies that Winston Peters would bring to a National-Act-New Zealand First Government”.
Luxon said he believed Peters was wrong but didn’t answer questions as to whether this position was enough for Luxon to rule out working with Peters in a future government. Peters and Hipkins have both ruled out working with each other.
Adam Pearse is a political reporter in the NZ Herald Press Gallery team, based at Parliament. He has worked for NZME since 2018, covering sport and health for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei before moving to the NZ Herald in Auckland, covering Covid-19 and crime.
Analysis: Labour’s support collapses in poll, is it over?
James Wheeler
"It’s a pity of the two Chrises, Chris Hipkins is not the religious one. With less than three weeks to go before early voting starts, it already looks like the only thing that cansave his party and government are prayers and miracles."
See Thomas Coughlan's analysis of tonight's poll at NZ Herald Premium:
James Wheeler
Tonight's poll also asked people if Christopher Luxon should rule out forming a government with NZ First and Winston Peters.
It found 43% of respondents said yes, while almost 37% said no.
The rest were unsure.
46% of National supporters polled were in favour of Luxon ruling out working with Peters.
37% said no.
James Wheeler
Hipkins and Luxon were equal in the preferred PM stakes on 22.5 per cent. Hipkins had dropped 1.5 points with Luxon rising 6.6 points.
NZ First was close to the 5 per cent threshold to enter Parliament, sitting on 4.6 per cent in tonight's poll.
The poll was conducted between September 3-9, including the time when many of Labour's main election promises were announced.
Te Pāti Māori came in at 3.1 per cent, 0.4 points. The Opportunities Party was on 0.7 per cent while New Conservative was on 0.8 per cent.
The poll's margin of error was 3.1 per cent.
James Wheeler
The Greens were up 2.7 points to 12.3 per cent, while Act dropped 2 points to 10.1 per cent.
On those numbers, National and Act could form a government earning 66 seats (National with 53 and Act with 13).
Labour's 34, 16 from the Greens and 4 from the Māori Party would only give the left bloc 54.
James Wheeler
National is on 40.9 per cent, up 4.3 points.
James Wheeler
Labour was on 26.8 per cent, down 5.5 points.
James Wheeler
Labour has dropped well into the 20s in tonight's Newshub Reid Research Poll while National has hit the 40s.
On the Campaign: What you need to know today
James Wheeler
On the election campaign, a lot can change in just a few days.
While Prime Minister Chris Hipkins was looking increasingly on the downward at the end of last week, with National’s Christopher Luxon riding high in the polls and coming out on top when it came to personal politics, a rough interview this weekend has seen the two Chrises swap places.
Luxon was grilled by Q+A’s Jack Tame on Sunday, where the ongoing questions over how National will be able to afford its economic plan saw Luxon struggling to answer many of the questions.
Speaking to Hamish Fletcher for On the Campaign, deputy political editor Thomas Coughlan said the interview was “a bit of a train wreck”.
Listen to the full episode above or read more below:
New political poll out tonight
James Wheeler
Newshub will be releasing its latest Newshub Reid Research Poll this evening. The Herald will have live updates of its results.
Chris Hipkins rejects Winston Peters' statement that Maori are not indigenous
Natasha Gordon
Labour leader Chris Hipkins has also rejected Winston Peters' statement that Maori are not indigenous.
Hipkins said it was "another example of the sorts of divisive policies that Winston Peters would bring to a National, Act, New Zealand First government".
He said the second term Labour was in office was "a lot more stable" than in the first term, when Labour was in coalition with NZ First.
On tomorrow's pre-election economic and fiscal update, he said the government's finances were in a "challenging position" but that the economy was turning a corner with inflation coming down.
Asked if Labour might need to adjust its election promises depending on what is revealed tomorrow, he said: "I'm confident that what we're putting before the electorate will balance, it will be paid for."
He said National's refusal to release the modelling behind its tax package showed that National had something to hide.
"The fact that they're not releasing the costings is clearly a sign that they know they don't add up. If they were really rock solid in their costings, they'd be saying more than 'just trust us'."
On the $4 billion that the Government has already asked public service bosses to trim, he said: "None of both public sector leaders are delighted to have to reduce the baselines, but we've made $4 billion worth of savings that we think we can do without cutting into the bone of public service."
Natasha Gordon
Christopher Luxon has completed another day on the campaign trail
Natasha Gordon
Christopher Luxon has completed another day on the campaign trail with a visit to a shopping centre and capping it off with a pie.
Luxon, alongside National Ōtaki and Mana candidates Tim Costley and Dr Frances Hughes, were received well at the Coastlands Shopping Centre in Paraparaumu.
With a significant media pack in his wake, Luxon made the odd decision to opt against getting his trim hot chocolate from Butlers Chocolate Cafe for takeaway, meaning the roughly dozen media who had travelled from Wellington would’ve stood and watched as he sipped.
Fortunately, a member of his team changed the order so Luxon could walk and talk.
He met forestry worker Murray, who had travelled south from around Waikato for the birth of his grandchild.
Murray pushed Luxon to stop Government’s treatment of farmers and noted with National’s proposed tax plan, a lot of public servants were going to lose their jobs - something Luxon didn’t appear too keen to address.
Murray also bemoaned the money spent on major sporting events. Luxon retorted by claiming all three Rugby World Cups had been won under a National Government - which is not correct, New Zealand’s first World Cup win in 1987 came under David Lange’s Labour Government.
Luxon spoke to several retailers, including staff at Michael Hill - a franchise which has been among those hit by a rise in violent youth crime like ram raids.
Assistant manager Harry Mohan said while they hadn’t been targeted yet, they were “definitely taking a lot more precautions”, including round the clock security.
He also admitted staff had begun to judge people on their appearance and demeanour in an attempt to stop crime before it occurs.
“We have to sort of profile in a way, which is a shame,” Mohan told Luxon.
The National camp then made a beeline to Rays Pies and Fries and out of 21 flavours, the potential future Prime Minister chose a mince pie.
He then gave the media the customary first bite on camera. He was very complimentary but a quick check found that Luxon’s bite hadn’t reached the mince snd was all pastry.
Luxon stopped for a short time to wave some National signs at traffic.
Most commuters were positive. One young man took the opportunity to hang out of the backseat window and swear loudly at the National leader, welcomed with laughs from the 30-odd supporters crowding the footpath.
Luxon in Wellington, Hipkins in Nelson - We bring you the latest from the 2023 election campaign today
Vera Alves
Good afternoon! If you're only joining us now, let us catch you up on what you may have missed from the campaign trail so far today:
- Northcare Accident and Medical's Peter Boot told Kate Hawkesby on Newstalk ZB that National's health target plan completely misses the point.
Act wants builders to be able to use insurance companies as an alternative authority for consenting - cutting local council out of the process.
National promised to increase NZ Super payments
Luxon believes Winston Peters is wrong and Māori are New Zealand's indigenous people. Luxon didn't comment on whether he would rule out working with Peters.
Vera Alves
Luxon speaking to Murray Jensen, of Te Puke. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Be very wary of politicians bearing statistics, writes Liam Dann
Vera Alves
Hutt South election debate on Wellington's Newstalk ZB
Vera Alves
National's Chris Bishop, Labour's Ginny Andersen and the Green's Neelu Jennings have joined Newstalk ZB's Wellington Mornings host Nick Mills live in studio today.
The electorate was created in 1996 and was held by Labour's Trevor Mallard until he went list-only in 2017, when Chris Bishop managed to turn it blue for the first time.
But last election in 2020, Andersen managed to win it back for Labour with a majority of 3,777 votes.
Bishop today described Hutt South as a traditional swing seat, and said he was feeling "cautiously optimistic" five weeks out from the election.
"Every election in Hutt South is close... what will be will be."
He said the number one issue for Hutt South voters this election is cost of living, as it is for the wider Wellington region, and the country.
Andersen agreed, and pointed to Labour's pledges to make dentist visits free for those under 30, lifting the minimum wage, taking the $5 fee off prescriptions and making childcare cheaper.
Jennings meanwhile said the number one issue for those living in the Hutt was climate change.
She said we've seen elsewhere how easily "supercharged storms" can happen, and said they're only going to increase in frequency.
"We need to be prepared. It's not about if, it's about when."
On the issue of crime, Andersen pointed to what she'd achieved as the local MP to make the area around Queensgate Mall safer.
She said a recent meeting had resulted in an increase in police presence with regular foot patrols, an increase in wardens to deescalate issues, the regional council getting rid of bus shelters, and businesses reducing free wifi availability so people weren't hanging around to access it.
She said she had also worked hard to get a local police station back open in Wainuiomata, and referenced last week's announcement of 300 more frontline police officers nationwide.
She said that gives New Zealand the largest police force it's had in modern history.
Bishop agreed more frontline police was important, but said they also need to have more powers, especially to go after the gangs "causing mayhem in our communities".
He said National would ban gang patches in public places and give officers more powers for gang dispersal.
He said it was also important there were real consequences for youth offenders, and they would "unashamedly" bring back military academies or boot camps.
He said National would also invest in frontline services, like Billy Graham's boxing academy in Naenae, to "stop the kids of today becoming the ram raiders of tomorrow".
Jennings said the Greens prefer to take an approach to understand the drivers making people turn to crime.
She said for youth that's often addiction to alcohol or drugs, or mental health issues or poverty. She said her focus is making sure people have a roof over their heads and an income, so they "don't need to turn to crime".
Hipkins is currently visiting a dentist in Nelson
Vera Alves
Photo / Tim Cuff
Vera Alves
Luxon said free dental care for all was unaffordable at the moment. Not one out of the 20 mobile dental clinics that the Government had promised was up and running.
Vera Alves
Willis is campaigning for the seat of Ōhāriu, and she said the people there were struggling with the cost of living and the lack of progress on local transport issues.
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Willis said the winter energy payment would continue for all those who currently receive it.
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Willis said all frontline services tackling sexual and family violence would not be cut.
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Luxon committed to boosting funding in palliative care but wouldn't say by how much. "We'll look at that once we're in Government."
Luxon and Willis speaking in Wellington. Photo / Mark Mitchell
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Nicola Willis said there were 24 public service agencies where the cuts could be made.
The National Emergency Management Agency was an essential service provider, she said, so any cuts from NEMA would have to be "backroom costs".
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Asked if the fiscal plan would outline where National would cut public services, Willis said chief executives would be asked to find 6.5 per cent cuts in a way that preserve frontline services.
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On the PREFU, Luxon said its reveal tomorrow would not impact his tax package because it was "fully-funded".
Asked how the tax package wouldn't be inflationary, he said he would stop "wasteful government spending", although he said people could also spend the tax cut they would get.
Vera Alves
Luxon deflected when asked whether, as a general rule, politicians should discuss who they will or won't work with in post-election discussions.
Luxon said he didn't think Act would support National on confidence but not on supply, which Act leader David Seymour recently said was a possibility if National didn't support the change that Act wanted.
He spoke with Seymour yesterday but that issue didn't come up, he said.
Luxon and deputy leader Nicola Willis said a full fiscal plan would be put together after the Pre-Election Fiscal Update (PREFU) reveal.
Luxon responds to Winston Peter's Māori comments
Vera Alves
Luxon is speaking to the media in Wellington right now.
Luxon said he believes Winston Peters is wrong and Māori are New Zealand's indigenous people.
He again wouldn't comment on whether he would rule out working with Peters.
Chris Hipkins waves campaign placards in Nelson
Vera Alves
Photo / Tim Cuff
National promises to increase Super payments
Vera Alves
A National government will rebuild the economy so seniors can benefit from lower inflation and better public services, National’s Finance spokesperson Nicola Willis says.
“National knows the best way to increase Super payments is to grow the economy. The last National Government grew Super at twice the rate of inflation. That’s what a growing economy and low inflation does.
“Under National, Super will continue to be linked to 66 percent of average after-tax incomes. We will get the cost of living under control and grow the economy and wages so that all Kiwis, including seniors, can get ahead.
Photo / Mark Mitchell
“Under Labour, the economy has gone into recession. Labour’s economic mismanagement has been so bad that inflation has been out of control for more than two years.
“National has a plan to rebuild the economy and get it working for all New Zealanders. National will stop Labour’s wasteful spending, give hard working Kiwis tax relief, remove red tape, build infrastructure for growth - like roads and transport, drive technology and innovation, support trade and investment and grow skills and keep talent in New Zealand.
“A working economy means better jobs, higher incomes, affordable mortgages, and a lower cost-of-living. It also means New Zealand can afford the quality public services we all rely on.
“National values the contribution seniors have made to the country and we will make sure they are looked after in their retirement.”
National says it will:
- Reduce inflation to get the cost of living under control.
- Increase NZ Super every year and boost it with our tax relief plan which will see couples on Super get an extra $26 a fortnight. Single people living alone on Super will get an extra $17 a fortnight.
- Continue free prescriptions for Super Gold Card holders, as well as reduce wait times for surgery, specialist appointments and cancer treatment.
- Lift the age for free breast screening from 69 up to 74, saving up to 65 lives a year, and funding additional cancer medicines.
- Continue the Winter Energy payment and keep the Super age at 65 until 2044.
- Introduce tougher sentences for criminals, bootcamps for young offenders, and crack down on gangs so New Zealanders feel safe in their homes and community.
- National will remove the Auckland regional fuel tax and will not raise fuel excise taxes in the next term – Labour will raise them by another 12c a litre.
“Voters have a clear choice this election. The coalition of chaos or a strong and stable National-led government that will rebuild the economy to reduce the cost of living, lift incomes and deliver the quality public services New Zealanders deserve.”
Luxon and Willis talk to retirement village residents in Wellington
Vera Alves
National’s leadership team Christopher Luxon and Nicola Willis are speaking to about 40 residents of the Malvina Major Retirement Village in Khandallah in Wellington this morning.
Willis, who is also running in the Ōhāriu electorate where the village is located, spoke of the cost of living pressures and crime concerns that people had raised with her.
She noted there had been some “unfortunate rumours” about what National would do for seniors.
Willis committed to increasing superannuation payments every year and to keep the winter energy payment.
Luxon started his kōrero with his well-used joke that people might expect him to be taller and that if he was AI-generated, he’d be taller and have more hair.
Photo / Mark Mitchell
He ran through his working history as well as his relationship with wife Amanda, noting the pair first met as 15-year-olds.
As rain came down on the hills behind him, Luxon took residents through his three-point plan to fixing the country.
First was fixing the economy. He referenced a story he’s told multiple times about a young boy from Paraparaumu who had asked Luxon whether a new government could pay for his braces, to which Luxon had to say no because the country couldn’t afford such subsidies.
Second was reducing crime, addressing gang members and young offenders.
Third was improving health and education.
The three-point plan is one Luxon has used at the public meetings he held before the campaign.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins is on the campaign trail in Nelson
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Chris Hipkins at Nelson Bus Depot to highlight cost of living supports through Labour's community connect programme. Photo / Tim Cuff
National leader Christopher Luxon is campaigning in Wellington today
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National leader Christopher Luxon speaking to residents at Malvina Major retirement village in Johnsonville. Photo / Mark Mitchell
David Seymour says NZ needs to lift its game to address housing shortage
Vera Alves
Act wants builders to be able to use insurance companies as an alternative authority for consenting - cutting local council out of the process.
Leader David Seymour told Mike Hosking on Newstalk ZB this morning that, last year, he tried to help a man get a new type of Gib plasterboard approved by Auckland Council at the height of the Gib crisis.
He told Hosking the council worker responsible for registering building material had gone away from work for three weeks.
“If you can’t get something like that done in any length of time in New Zealand, then there’s no way we’re gonna see innovation and get the more affordable housing that we want.”
Nicola Willis crying foul over CTU concerns
Vera Alves
National’s finance minister Nicola Willis is crying foul over concerns raised by the Council of Trade Unions that her party’s plans to cut public spending would hit frontline services - saying Labour was not facing the same scrutiny.
Asked on TVNZ’s Breakfast why - when asked for more information about how it would pay for tax cuts - National seemed to just say “trust us”, Willis said “I reject that characterisation”.
The party’s plan had been put together very carefully and it had released costings, legal advice that some policies were based on and a summary of the external review of its modelling, she said.
Willis said many of the recent attacks had been from people who did not expect National to be able to put together a generous tax plan without cutting online services, but “we’ve put it together really carefully so we don’t have to do that".
“What I note is, when Grant Robertson came out and said he was going to cut $4 billion from the public service, the CTU was silent. It’s only when National talk about these issues that there’s any critique.”
Filling the health workforce is a priority - Shane Reti
Vera Alves
Dr Shane Reti told Mike Hosking on Newstalk ZB this morning that filling the health workforce is a priority.
He said there are three ways to fill the staffing gaps: immigration, retaining current staff, and training new staff.
“The medium term plan is getting those docs who are currently driving Uber eats in Auckland into the workforce, and the long term plan is for a new medical school.”
🎧 PODCAST: Our electoral system and all the things that need to change
Vera Alves
According to an independent panel commissioned by the Government, our electoral system may be due for a few updates - particularly in regard to those who are excluded.
Vera Alves
Reti said the latest data released on the health system was released six months ago, but the next set of data will be released two weeks after the election.
“They’re not going to be good figures, and the health system is saying the government is just hiding the figures.”
“They paint a picture of every health measure failing.”
Shane Reti defends National's health targets plan
Vera Alves
National Party's health spokesperson Shane Reti told Tim Beveridge on Newstalk ZB that the party is bringing back health targets because they save lives
.“They focus attention, they focus funding, and they save lives.”
“When you set a target, you hold yourself accountable; you hold the system accountable, and at the end of the day, that’s what politicians should be doing.”
He said setting targets shapes behaviour and structure.
“But we’re also going to need to rebuild the workforce as well to be able to meet these targets.”
National's health target plan completely misses the point, medical director says
Vera Alves
Northcare Accident and Medical's Peter Boot told Kate Hawkesby on Newstalk ZB that National's health target plan completely misses the point.
The party's pledging to bring back health targets if elected, including 95 percent of ED patients to be admitted, discharged or transferred within six hours.
"It's not realistic really, and they've missed the point entirely," Boot said.
He says primary care is "so defunded it is falling to bits".
""Primary care is falling over. Most of the doctors are either about to retire or moving offshore and National’s policy of bolstering up secondary care is completely missing the point. It’s like mopping up the floor when the roof’s leaking," Boot added.
Vera Alves
Good morning, everyone, happy Monday. Welcome to our live updates of the 2023 general election. Stay tuned as we bring you the latest from the campaign trail as the candidates prepare for another day out there.