NZ Herald Poll of Polls, live updates: 1 News, Newshub election surveys show Winston Peters in control
The final push for votes has seen a heated exchange on the campaign trail with police stepping in to remove a man shouting at Chris Hipkins.
Both Labour leader Hipkins and National leader Christopher Luxon have been campaigning in Auckland today, ahead of tonight’s TVNZ leaders’ debate.
Earlier in the day Hipkins cast his vote at the Mangere Arts Centre, where a man then started shouting obscenities at him.
The man was taken aside by two police officers, with whom he continued an aggressive conversation long after Hipkins had left.
Before the outburst - and before he cast his vote - Hipkins optimistically told reporters ‘the late surge is on’.
It comes as the NZ Herald’s final Poll of Polls shows the left bloc has no realistic path to power, and National and Act are likely going to need NZ First to form a Government.
There is a 99.8 per cent chance of National, Act, and NZ First being able to form a government after the election. Take NZ First away and National and Act have just a 28.5 per cent chance of getting over the line.
The Poll of Polls still thinks there is a 0 per cent chance of Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori getting over the line, with the slight surge in the left bloc’s support failing to register.
STORY CONTINUES AFTER THE LIVE BLOG
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Thanks for joining us for live updates of the final debate of the campaign. Stay tuned for the latest news on the election campaign, as well as analysis from our panel of experts.
In the meantime, if you haven't voted yet, here's where you can do so.
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And that's the end of the media standups this evening.
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Asked if it was true what Luxon said that Hipkins needed to calm down, Hipkins responded: "to quote another Taylor Swift song, he needs to shake it off".
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Hipkins says he does his own supermarket shopping. He says some weeks he spends $60 just on fruit and veggies.
"I don't know how anyone would eat on $60 a week," he said, regarding Luxon's answer that he spends $60 a week on groceries.
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"I think our track record on trade is a really positive one," Hipkins said.
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He says the Indian government have been very clear that they do not want a free trade agreement with NZ, Hipkins said.
The Indian government want to build the relationship with New Zealand and Hipkins says sending a trade delegation to New Zealand is a good starting point.
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Hipkins is calling on everyone to show up and vote.
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Former National Party deputy leader Paula Bennett, who appeared on the TVNZ panel after the debate, said Hipkins referring to Uffindell's bed leg incident was a “low moment” for Hipkins.
“It was vile and quite despicable,” Bennett said.
Luxon, she said, took the high road.
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"Prioritising tax cuts for landlords over welfare is absolutely something they should be challenged on," Hipkins said.
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He says he was criticised after the first debate for not being energetic enough and now he's being criticised for being too energetic. "You can't win some days," Hipkins said.
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Hipkins says he has "no regrets at all".
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"If you're gonna live in a glass house, you shouldn't throw stones," Hipkins said of his exchange with Luxon regarding the behaviour of other MPs.
He said Luxon was challenging him and he responded in kind.
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Hipkins now taking questions from media.
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Luxon maintains that beneficiaries will see their benefits increase under a National government.
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"I was trying to help him by saying 'look mate, you need to calm down a little bit'," Luxon said.
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Luxon has confirmed he is promising to deliver a free trade agreement with India in his first term.
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Luxon and Hipkins will now address the media.
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That's the end of the final leaders debate ahead of election day on Saturday.
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"Kiwis know that we can be so so much better than this. To get this change, you need to choose it," Luxon said.
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"Change has consequences. If Christopher Luxon wins, you lose," Hipkins said.
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"You'll need to brush up on answering questions," Hipkins said when asked what advice he had for Luxon if he became PM.
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Hipkins said he regretted not going harder on National's "relentless negativity".
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He said he didn't think it was a mistake to say he'd work with NZ First.
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Luxon said he had no regrets about the campaign. He said it had been "incredibly positive".
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Hipkins said he had not thought about losing and so would not answer if he would resign if he lost.
Luxon had a similar answer.
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Hipkins then repeatedly interrupted Luxon's answer, with Luxon asking Hipkins to "be respectful".
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"You don't bring New Zealand together by calling low-income New Zealanders 'bottom feeders'," Hipkins said.
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"I reject racism in all its forms," Luxon said while accepting he had a responsibility to call out racism.
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Luxon said there was a responsibility to call out racism and "dog-whistling".
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We're back and going back to trust and leadership issues.
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Really starting to feel for moderator, Jessica Mutch McKay. She’s giving everything trying to bring Chris and Chris into line, but they’re having none of it.
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Hipkins said they would vote with anyone who would allocate the funding required to make these things work.
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Luxon said he agreed the partisan approach to these issues was not working.
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Again Luxon avoided saying how much National had set aside.
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Hipkins said what Luxon said was "not true" as there was "nothing" in National's fiscal plan for water infrastructure.
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"What we have with our water infrastructure at the moment is completely unacceptable," Hipkins admitted.
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"Councils can't fix this problem," Hipkins said in his criticism of National's plan for upgrading water infrastructure.
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Hipkins said these issues were why they had been focused on their water reforms, formerly known as three waters.
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Luxon said they had included "flexibility" in their financial plan to fund the changes but avoided saying specifically how much.
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Luxon said there had been underinvestment, and outlined his party plans to repeal the water reforms and introduce his party's plans.
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Now they are turning to infrastructure issues.
They have been asked about pollution issues for the environment around water infrastructure.
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Debate is moving to the changes Labour has made to the way benefits are calculated.
In 2019, Labour indexed benefits to wages. It meant that each year benefits are adjusted upwards by the same level as wages.
National promises to reverse the change if it wins the election.
Prior to 2019, benefits increased at the level of CPI inflation.
Usually CPI is lower than wage inflation, so in practice the change means that under Labour, benefits will increase faster than under National.
The Herald looked at that issue in the story below, and found someone on a Jobseeker benefit will be $50 a week worse-off under National’s changes by the end of the decade, while someone on a disability benefit will be $60 a week worse off.
Those figures equate to a cut of $2600 to $3120 a year.
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Luxon said he had health insurance.
Hipkins said he did also.
He recommended it to people who could afford it, but wanted to improve the public system so people did not need it.
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Hipkins said it was about $300 to $400 for him and his family.
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He said it was when he was by himself in his apartment.
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Luxon said he spent about $60 a week on groceries.
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Luxon tried to argue that National was still increasing benefits and they were not cuts as Hipkins repeatedly interjected. Luxon repeated Hipkins needed to calm donw. "Your moral compass is gone," said Hipkins.
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"Here Chris goes again, misinformation, we are not cutting benefits," Luxon said. "You need to listen to Taylor Swift [and] calm down."
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Agnes has asked whether Labour has done enough, while host Jessica Mutch-McKay noted that Labour had a majority for three years and more than 100,000 children were in poverty.
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Agnes called out from the audience that Labour had "not done enough".
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Hipkins said Luxon and National's moral compass was "entirely wrong" taking money from people on benefits for tax cuts.
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"That's thousands more children in poverty," Hipkins said of National's plan to tie benefits to inflation.
"Why won't you actually answer questions on it," Hipkins said.
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On National's plan to reduce current benefit rates by $500 million a year by pegging increases to inflation and not average wage rise, Luxon said they were still increasing year on year.
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Neither of them addressed the premise of her question.
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Luxon said he was focused on building a "better economy".
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Hipkins said Labour had helped 77,000 children out of poverty and all indicators had improved.
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They are now turning to poverty, with a question from a woman living in a Kāinga Ora home on a benefit who asked what they were doing to eliminate poverty.
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Interesting section on trade. Hipkins and Luxon clashing on the issue of signing what is called an “early harvest” trade agreement with India.India runs a highly protectionist economy, and is a notable sceptic when it comes to trade.
Other countries like the UK and Australia have looked at what are called “early harvest” agreements. Australia has one with India and the UK is negotiating one.
An “early harvest” agreement reduces trade barriers on things on which both sides agree, leaving the more contentious parts for later.
New Zealand’s top trade official Vangelis Vitalis told a select committee earlier this year that New Zealand could not realistically possible given the importance of dairy to our trade profile.
You can read a story about that interaction below.“
India is a critical partner of ours and the Australians have a free trade agreement. That FTA does not include dairy… it is impossible for NZ to do an FTA that does not include dairy… because it is such a significant part of our export profile,” Vitalis said.
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"I'm a verbal guy," Luxon said when talking about how he preferred to communicate with Australia's PM over the phone instead of texting.
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Both said greyhound racing should be banned.
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Both said they backed fees free at tertiary education.
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"Nothing to show for it," Luxon said of the 14,000 public sector workers that have been added under Labour.
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"Promising a free trade agreement with India ... is simply misleading New Zealanders," Hipkins said.
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Hipkins is ridiculing Luxon about his optimism that he'll get a free trade agreement, saying India have made it clear they don't want an FTA with New Zealand.
"Are you going to succeed where John Key and Murray McCully failed?"
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Luxon said he was focused on getting a trade deal in India. Hipkins asked how he could do that given other prime ministers before had given it up, and India had said it didn't want one.
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Luxon committed to getting a free trade agreement over the line with India in the next term.
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Luxon said he thought New Zealand needed to be "out there hustling in the world".
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"I back our track record any day of the week," Hipkins responded. He also highlighted Luxon's past comments saying New Zealand had become "wet, whiny and miserable".
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On research and development, Luxon said he wanted to put more money into it along with "commercialising" it.
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"You've actually got to put a plan together," Luxon said as he criticised Labour's economic record.
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Hipkins said they had introduced a research and development tax credit to help improve productivity, noting National had opposed that.
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Luxon spoke about getting inflation down and improving education.
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On growing the economy Hipkins referenced making five trade-focused trips in his time as Prime Minister.
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Ad break now - and a pretty scrappy debate. Hipkins' "none of my MPs beat people with a bed leg" comment during the segment on their standards for the MPs and ministers was quite the moment.
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Christopher Luxon said he had ruled-out the Green Party. Luxon has been pretty clear that he would not be working with the Greens but he had not actually ruled them out in the past.
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Hipkins said he could absolutely rule him out.
"Been there, done that, got the t-shirt, wouldn't do it again, Hipkins said.
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Hipkins asked if he has blocked Winston Peters phone number: "no, but he hasn't been calling."
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Luxon said he had not called Winston Peters.
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As Hipkins interjected Luxon responded that he had lost five Cabinet ministers this year.
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"None of my MPs beat people up with a bed leg," Hipkins said to Luxon when the National leader was questioning the number of ministers Labour had lost in Government.
The reference is to National's Sam Uffindell, who was accused of bullying in his youth.
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"They'd be running circles around you," Hipkins said of David Seymour and Winston Peters.
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On ruling in Winston Peters and if he "scored an own goal", Luxon again avoided answering the question and reverted to his regular talking points.
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On more important matters, Luxon's tie looks very big.
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Hipkins is now repeating his regular response around a capital gains tax or wealth tax, saying the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would need to get a majority to get it over the line.
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Hipkins accused Luxon of "walking away" from hard questions.
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Luxon avoided answering a specific question about if he will deliver their tax plans, saying instead "we will deliver tax relief".
STORY CONTINUES
The Poll of Polls usually runs two simulations: one for likely results if the election were held on the coming Saturday, and another modelling the election for the actual date: October 14. Given polling day is this weekend, the Poll of Polls only ran one simulation for its last edition. It simulates polls based on recent polling data. This final simulation includes data from last night’s 1 News Verian and Newshub Reid Research polls.
Both polls showed National and Act will struggle to get over the line without the support of NZ First and Winston Peters.
The Poll of Polls thinks Labour is likely to get 26.8 per cent, while National would get 35.5, the Greens are likely to poll 12.4 per cent, and Act is likely to get 11 per cent.
It has Te Pāti Māori getting 2.6 per cent and TOP 2.1 per cent.
How the Poll of Polls works
As part of its 2023 election coverage, the Herald has launched its Poll of Polls, which combines polling from different pollsters to predict the party vote for the 2023 election.
The model imagines that in any given week there exists an unobserved voting intention that is partially measured via opinion polls and is accurately measured once every three years by an election.
The model can also make predictions about how voting intentions can evolve between now and election day.
This approach enables us to estimate each polling organisation’s accuracy in previous elections and then use that to inform our predictions.
The Herald has based its model on a New Zealand election forecast developed by statistician and data scientist Peter Ellis. Ellis developed the model in a private capacity prior to taking on his current role as director of the Statistics for Development Division at the Pacific Community (SPC).
Ellis also used the model to forecast the Australian election. Similar models have been used to make predictions about the German and Swedish elections. Both Germany and Sweden have proportional representation electoral systems similar to New Zealand’s MMP system.
Our Poll of Polls combines results from a range of pollsters, who are signatories to the New Zealand Political Polling Code, specifically Curia, Kantar Public, Talbot Mills, and Reid Research.
Details of the model, including the source code, are available here. Between now and the election, we will be looking to improve some aspects of the model, in particular the handling of polls which do not provide polling data for some of the smaller parties.
Currently, in order to be included in the model, a party must have polled over 2.5 per cent in at least three polls.
It is assumed that parties currently holding an electorate seat retain them and no other parties win an electorate seat. Future versions will enable readers to modify this assumption.
Thomas Coughlan is Deputy Political Editor and covers politics from Parliament. He has worked for the Herald since 2021 and has worked in the press gallery since 2018.