Officials say National’s sex crimes policy would result in no more than 30 extra prisoners

Justice officials estimate National’s promise to scrap good character sentencing discounts for sex crimes would put a maximum of 30 extra offenders behind bars over five years.

A good character discount is a reduction in an offender’s sentence to recognise their previous good character, such as a lack of prior offensding or positive contributions to the community.

Advice received by National’s justice spokesman Paul Goldsmith, as Justice Minister, was released to Newstalk ZB under the Official Information Act.

The proposed law change is estimated to raise the prison population by 15-30 inmates over the five to ten years after coming into force.

The Ministry of Justice currently projects the prison population will increase by 35%, or roughly 4000 over the next decade.

Officials suggested limiting good character discounts would “signal that particular forms of offending are viewed as incompatible with good character” and “improve public confidence in sentencing outcomes”.

Speaking as justice spokesman, Goldsmith said ending good character sentencing discounts for sex offenders would send a clear message about tolerance.

“It’s part of a broader, consistent message that we’re sending around sexual offending,” he said.

University of Auckland Associate Law Professor Carrie Leonetti said she wasn’t surprised about the number of extra prisoners the policy was likely to yield.

“I’m actually shocked by what a high percentage of sex offences result in supervision or home detention in New Zealand,” she said.

“What you often see is there’s this complicated calculation, and if they can get the sentence of imprisonment below two years with time served, if there’s pretrial remand, then they often automatically get a community alternative.

“And if these people are just getting from 23 months to 21 months on prior good character, then getting rid of it isn’t going to put many more people in prison,” Leonetti said.

Justice officials warned Goldsmith a law change was expected to result in a rise of appeals, and allowing some judicial discretion to allow the courts to consider the full circumstances of the offending and the offender, was recommended.

Leonetti expected good character testimonials, which are usually letters, would still be admitted to the courts, even if the mitigating factor was removed from legislation.

“There’s a catch-all in the Sentencing Act that basically says the court can also take into account any other mitigating factor that the court thinks fits.

When asked whether the Government would be able to stop letters being admitted, Goldsmith said it was unlikely.

“Ultimately, we’ll remove good character as a mitigating factor from the options for a sentencing judge in these cases,” he said.

Leonetti said she still believed the policy was a good idea but suggested it was the “tip of the iceberg” in addressing what she described as the “He’s a good guy” culture often seen in the defence of sex offenders.

Troy Matich is a political reporter with Newstalk ZB, working from Parliament’s press gallery. She joined NZME in 2025, previously working for RNZ as a producer for Morning Report.