Poll of polls: Coalition slump continues, but Labour’s path to power lies with Opportunity

The likelihood of the current National-led coalition being returned to power after the election has dipped slightly, with the NZ Herald-Motu Research Poll of Polls showing the coalition has a 69.9% probability of being re-elected – down from 76.4% the last time the model was run on June 23.

The model takes into account recent polls including this week’s Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll.

While the coalition’s chances of forming a government have dipped, the current parliamentary Opposition’s chances of forming the next government have slumped too.

Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori have just a 7.2% chance of being able to form a government after the election, according to the model.

The disruptor is Opportunity. The model reckons there is a 39% chance of Opportunity crossing the 5% threshold and entering Parliament.

This means other governing formulations can be looked at. A Labour, Green, Te Pāti Māori, Opportunity combination has a 22.7% chance of having the numbers to form a government.

A National, NZ First, Act, Opportunity combination has an 88.7% chance of forming a government.

The rise of Opportunity unlocks other combinations, too. A Labour, Green and Opportunity combination has a 9% chance of having the numbers to form a government.

A National, Act, Opportunity combination has just a 0.8% chance of getting over the line.

The NZ Herald-Motu Research Poll of Polls uses data from public polls and other private or less frequent polls and inputs them into a computer model using polling data going back to 2014.

It uses this data to run 4000 election simulations, which are used to form probabilities of various election outcomes.

The model reckons Labour is likely to be polling at 30.9%, just ahead of National on 29.8%. The gap between the two major parties continues to narrow mainly thanks to Labour’s continued slump in support.

The model has NZ First on 13.8%, the Greens on 10.6%, Act on 7% and Opportunity on 4.7%.

Te Pāti Māori is on 2.2% but will likely win an electorate seat to stay in the race.

Translated into seats in Parliament, this would give Labour 39 seats, National 38 seats, NZ First 18 seats, the Greens 13 seats, Act 9 seats and Te Pāti Māori 3 seats.

Opportunity would fail to cross the 5% threshold, wasting its vote unless it wins a seat.