Poll of polls: Coalition’s likelihood of being re-elected continues to fall, Opportunity on the cusp of Parliament

The coalition’s likelihood of being re-elected in November continues to drop, with the NZ Herald-Motu Research Poll of Polls calculating the three coalition parties have a 70.2% probability of being able to form a Government.

The model takes into account Monday night’s 1News-Verian poll, which showed the coalition would narrowly lose the election.

Before that poll was published, the poll of polls reckoned the coalition had a 74.3% chance of being re-elected.

The 1News-Verian Poll showed the Opportunity Party just below the 5% threshold at 4.6%.

The poll of polls reckons the party is at 4.1%, meaning its chance of crossing the 5% threshold and getting into Parliament was 21.3%, up from 14.9% before the 1News-Verian poll.

The poll of polls reckons Labour’s likely party vote is 32.3%, the Greens are on 10.3%, and Te Pāti Māori is on 2.2%.

It calculates National’s vote to be 29.5%, NZ First’s to be 13.7%, and Act’s to be 7%.

That would give the National-led bloc 63 seats compared with 57 for the Labour-led bloc.

This is comprised of 37 seats for National, 17 for NZ First, and nine for Act. Labour would be the largest party with 41 seats, 13 seats for the Greens, and three for Te Pāti Māori.

The NZ Herald-Motu Research Poll of Polls uses data from public polls and other private or less frequent polls and inputs them into a computer model using polling data going back to 2014.

It uses this data to run 4000 election simulations, which are used to form probabilities of various election outcomes.