Poll of Polls: National likely to need Winston Peters, chance of needing a second election rises

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NZ First and Winston Peters are more likely than not to be needed for National and Act to form a government, according to the Herald’s poll of polls.

There is also an increasing chance of having to have another election if Peters cannot cut a deal with National and Act. In these scenarios, even if Peters went with the left bloc, that would still only bring that bloc to 60 votes, which would not be enough for a majority.

The poll of polls tool takes the latest polling data, including the recent Newshub Reid Research and 1News Verian Polls and turns it to simulate election outcomes to work out the probability of different scenarios.

National and Act have both recently slipped in public polls, and the poll of polls reckons they have just a 39.9 per cent chance of being able to form a government without support from other parties, dropping below 50 per cent from the last poll of polls.

That probability rises to 99.7 per cent if you throw NZ First into the mix.

Those results are for if the election were held this weekend. If we extend the model to account for changes that might occur between now and October 14, the results change slightly.

Episode 62: Political polls - how do they work?

The chance of National and Act being able to govern without NZ First rises to 44.8 per cent. The odds improve significantly if you add Peters to the mix, rising to 99.3 per cent.

The chance of no government being able to be formed if Peters cannot cut a deal with the right is 25.9 per cent if the election were held this weekend.

This drops to 22.7 per cent on election night.

Labour has very slim odds of being able to get over the line. The poll of polls gives Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori a zero per cent chance of being able to form a government if the election were held this weekend, rising just slightly to 0.1 per cent for the actual election date.

The poll of polls has National’s likely party vote at 36.1 per cent, Labour at 27.2 per cent, The Greens at 12.2 per cent, Act at 11 per cent, NZ First at 5.2 per cent, Te Pāti Māori at 2.8 per cent, and TOP at 2.1 per cent.