Auckland FC v Melbourne City: Reasons for hope and fear in big A-League clash

Saturday’s elimination final is the match that Auckland FC were never meant to play.

Comfortably inside the top two since the turn of the year, they were supposed to be enjoying a bye this week, ahead of the semi-finals.

But a bad run of results, which saw them claim just seven points from their last seven games, along with Adelaide’s miraculous win in Melbourne last Sunday, has consigned them to this do-or-die scenario against defending champions Melbourne City (5pm).

Michael Burgess looks at what might unfold.

Reasons for hope

Guillermo May

The Uruguayan could have bounced back into form at the right time. Named player of the season in the inaugural campaign, May hasn’t had the same impact this time around. A knee issue affected him across the first part of the season, where he managed just one goal in 16 appearances, while Lachlan Brook was preferred for long periods in the playmaker role. But last Sunday felt like a big moment, as the 28-year-old twice came up with clutch goals against Sydney FC. He’s also someone who thrives on the big occasion, which bodes well for Saturday.

Previous record

Melbourne City have lost emphatically on both of their previous visits to Auckland. They have conceded six goals and have yet to find the net here. While two matches is not a massive sample size, it’s still something that sits in Auckland’s favour.

Jesse Randall

It’s only a hunch – but is Randall set to explode at the right time? In many ways Randall was the story of the regular season, with nine goals, six assists and a swag of compelling performances. His impact has been less noticeable during the current winless run, partly because opposition teams have been wary to his threats. But there were positive signs in the Sydney match and the part he played in the late equalising goal will do wonders for his confidence.

Adapting to life without Francis de Vries

The absence of the All Whites defender – since he was injured in training during the international break – has been a killer blow. He had, famously, played in every A-League match of Auckland’s history and his delivery – either from the flank or at set piece – is a key attacking weapon. The 31-year-old has been missed hugely, both for the defensive balance and the offensive threat. But at least the shock has subsided. While it’s still telling, the Black Knights have now had time to adjust.

Corica’s experience

No current manager has coached more A-League matches than Steve Corica, who will be in the dugout for the 199th time on Saturday night. This series will also be his sixth playoff campaign and he has made three grand finals, winning twice (2018-19 and 2019-2020).

Adversity breeds resilience

This season has been a much greater test than the first campaign. There was the slump in January (just five points from a possible 18) then the current stumble, where Auckland FC have won one of their last seven matches. But those experiences have hardened resolve and built character, while their recent run has included three credible draws (against Adelaide, Melbourne Victory and Sydney) and the eye-catching win in Newcastle.

Experienced core

Even with the players missing and the injury niggles, they have a cohort with plenty of big-match experience. The likes of Dan Hall, Hiroki Sakai, Sam Cosgrove, May and particularly Louis Verstraete – who was recognised as the club’s player of the year on Tuesday – bring the “been there, done that” factor that will help their younger teammates.

Reasons for fear

Sunday shock

This was not the scenario that anyone at the club wanted. The coaching staff have been quite open about the need for a week off by gaining a top-two finish and a free pass to the semis. There was the casualty ward, the injury niggles and the desire to reset after a challenging period. But everything changed on Sunday night, with Adelaide’s late, late winner. Schedules were hastily redrawn and training loads recalibrated. Auckland will be ready – but how ready?

Home stumbles

Auckland FC’s fortress at Go Media Stadium has crumbled a little this season. They’ve given up a lot of cheap points, especially with the draws against the Brisbane Roar, the Central Coast Mariners and the Perth Glory, along with the damaging defeats to Macarthur FC and the Mariners, part of the sequence that saw them pick up only three points in their last five matches.

Record without de Vries

Auckland FC have yet to win an A-League match without de Vries on the field, a statistic that can’t be sugar-coated.

Melbourne City pedigree

Putting aside their late defeat to Adelaide on Sunday, Melbourne City have been on a impressive run, with five wins in their last seven matches. They also have a unmatched record at this time of the season. They have reached five grand finals in the last six seasons – with two championships – and also claimed three Premiers Plates during that time.

Weight of expectation

Even though Melbourne City are the defending A-League champions, most of the pressure will be on Auckland FC. They are favourites, they are at home and they were tipped to go one better than the semi-final exit last season.

Verdict

Auckland FC 2 Melbourne City 1

It will be an uncomfortable, nervy occasion but Auckland FC will finally deliver on home soil, after recent misfires.

Michael Burgess has been a Sports Journalist for the New Zealand Herald since 2005, covering the Olympics, Fifa World Cups, and America’s Cup campaigns. He is a co-host of the Big League podcast.