Formula 1: Inside the Spanish reports linking Liam Lawson with losing his Racing Bulls seat

If you’re wondering how a Spanish news outlet had the inside line on an Italian team, owned by an Austrian energy drink, sacking their Kiwi driver in favour of a Bulgarian teenager, you’re not alone.

And yet, as New Zealand awoke on Wednesday morning, that was the story that greeted us.

According to SoyMotor, Formula Two driver Nikola Tsolov has been guaranteed a seat at Racing Bulls – the junior side of championship contenders Red Bull – for 2027, with Liam Lawson the likely man to make way.

To their credit, Racing Bulls responded almost immediately to the Herald’s inquiries over the reporting, but these kinds of stories are to be expected.

More than any other sport, Formula One lends itself to gossip, speculation and at times falsehoods masquerading as truth.

Out of respect to the journalist who broke the original story, it was clearly done the right way. A source comes in with a tip, and verified by insiders.

Tsolov is without doubt a very impressive driver. With three wins, no one else boasts as many Formula Two victories this season as the Bulgarian teenager.

However, as might be the case here, Formula One teams, drivers, managers and agents are also very shrewd at using the media and journalists to put forward their agenda.

In 2024, Argentinian media reported Franco Colapinto was going to Red Bull at Lawson’s expense, only for reality to prove otherwise.

While overseas media have in the past proven to be credible sources of information, this one feels different.

In the past, Red Bull stories have tended to leak through the Dutch press. The link there isn’t hard to find, with the Dutch media known to have good relationships with Max Verstappen and his family, namely father Jos. It’s a very simple set of dots to join when working out that leaks are afforded to certain journalists that favour Max Verstappen.

So how, then, does a Bulgarian driver have connections with the Spanish press? In Tsolov’s case, the answer is quite simple.

In 2021, as a 15-year-old, Tsolov was scouted and signed by a company called “A14″. If that rings any bells for Formula One followers, A14 is the agency run by Aston Martin’s Fernando Alonso.

While the Herald understands Tsolov is no longer represented by A14, his years racing out of Spain, including where he won Formula Four, has clearly had a positive influence on his standing within the country, enough to influence media reporting.

Tsolov has been part of Red Bull’s junior setup for only two years. It’s understood he was one of the final drivers to be signed by Dr Helmut Marko, before his very public exit from Red Bull at the end of last year.

Different sources have told the Herald different things. One claimed Tsolov is very highly regarded within Red Bull and will be pushing for promotion at the end of this year regardless, potentially at Lawson’s expense.

Another said Marko’s exit has left him in limbo, with the reports to potentially light a fire at Red Bull that either sees him promoted or results in another side coming in for him at the end of the F2 season.

In Red Bull’s case, Formula Two successes aren’t always the determining factor in promotion. Lawson was overlooked for 2023 despite finishing third in the championship, while teammate Arvid Lindblad was promoted last year after finishing sixth.

However, these Tsolov reports won’t have come from nowhere. If the journalist did their job, there would have been some kind of confirmation from within Red Bull that he’ll be on the grid next season.

If Red Bull do want to change their Racing Bulls lineup, though, they should do so at their peril.

Last year, after his hasty demotion from Red Bull, Lawson helped guide the team to sixth in the constructors’ championship – the best result in the team’s history – and with it, banked tens of millions of dollars in prize money.

This year, with the Kiwi in even better form, they’re on course to repeat that, if not improve. After seven race weekends, Lawson sits 10th in the championship and has contributed 28 of Racing Bulls’ 41 points.

Should Red Bull decide to pair Lindblad with Tsolov for 2027, there’s a real risk the two inexperienced drivers wouldn’t hit the same heights as Lindblad and Lawson this year.

However, Lawson’s place at Racing Bulls will come under scrutiny the longer he’s there. As seen when Isack Hadjar was promoted ahead of him at the end of last year, Lawson’s chances of ever going back up to Red Bull appear slim, at best.

That, then, would leave his place at Racing Bulls vulnerable, with Red Bull always having plenty of talent to choose from. At the moment, Tsolov is the only Red Bull-backed driver in Formula Two, but that will change.

But to hear it now, in June, is strange. Over the past two years, Red Bull have waited until the end of the season to confirm driver pairings, with leaks tending to come in the days before any announcement.

To do it now, for a driver six points off the lead in Formula Two, would be very strange.

As one Red Bull insider told the Herald, silly season is well and truly under way.

Alex Powell is a sports journalist for the NZ Herald. He has been a sports journalist since 2016.