Formula 1: Liam Lawson’s form is ruining Red Bull’s masterplan - Opinion

For the second race in as many weeks, Liam Lawson was exposed to late drama before securing a Formula One points finish.

But while Monaco saw him keep his composure to take fifth – which has since become sixth – Barcelona was a different kettle of fish altogether.

After it looked like everything had conspired against Lawson, again, things fell the Kiwi’s way, as two retirements ahead of him saw him climb back into the points for the fifth time this season.

And now, with another four points in the bank to consolidate Racing Bulls’ hold of sixth in the constructors championship, Lawson’s place on the Formula One grid is becoming more secure by the race.

Here’s what we learned in Barcelona:

Luck (finally) goes Lawson’s way

It’s never nice to have to rely on others’ misfortune for your success. In saying that, though, there’s no driver who deserves the rub of the green more than Lawson.

Last year, it felt like the Kiwi couldn’t buy a trick after his two-race demotion from Red Bull.

In Bahrain, a DRS fault saw him turfed out of qualifying earlier than he should have, before two separate red flags did the same at Imola, to go with a shambolic penalty in Saudi Arabia and a mistimed safety car in Barcelona.

The list goes on and on.

This year, though, things have – for the most part – been different. For a start, he was on the right side of a safety car at Suzuka to bank ninth place, before Barcelona.

An engine failure for Kimi Antonelli’s Mercedes and a loss of power steering to Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc, moved Lawson back inside the top 10, after a virtual safety car appeared to give the two Alpines the last two spots in the points.

There’s a very real argument to make that there’s no such thing as luck. Misfortune happens for a number of reasons, rather than some kind of mystic force that decides to trip you up at the most inopportune moments.

But in a sport like this, Lawson – or any driver – will gratefully accept any advantage thrown their way.

The masterplan

A penny for Red Bull boss Laurent Mekies’ thoughts right now.

It’s been clear for close to 18 months now that the organisation’s plan is to develop Arvid Lindblad into a contender at Racing Bulls, benchmarking his progress against Lawson over the course of this season.

And while Lindblad has been impressive, with 13 points from his first seven race weekends to sit 13th in the championship, his debut season has coincided with Lawson finding a new level as Racing Bulls’ team leader.

In the past, Red Bull had shown they weren’t afraid to make huge calls.

Giving Max Verstappen a fulltime seat at 16, and promoting him into their senior ranks at 18, promoting Lawson from Racing Bulls after just 11 races, and then moving him back in favour of Yuki Tsunoda after two more, and then swapping him for Isack Hadjar after his rookie season – and so on.

But as Verstappen ums and ahs over whether or not he’ll stay in the sport beyond this year, Lindblad will almost certainly be towards the top of Red Bull’s list for his replacements.

Whether Lawson is on that list is unclear. However, his form is presenting a very strong case as to why Lindblad might have to wait at the very least.

While there would have been some who’d hoped Lindblad would wipe the floor with the Kiwi this season, Lawson’s results have put paid to those ideas.

The Kiwi holds a 7-3 record over his teammate in both qualifying and racing this year, when also taking into account retirements. Last year, Hadjar’s form against Lawson – beating the Kiwi 21-6 across sprint and grand prix qualifying, and 17-9 in races – saw him unequivocally deserve the promotion he was given.

There’s still plenty of time for Lindblad to get things right, and start taking the fight to his teammate.

But if Red Bull’s plan was truly to give Lindblad a year to get to grips with Formula One, and have Lawson as a punching bag the way Hadjar did, the Kiwi’s form is making it a much more difficult equation for his bosses.

There’s no way, on current form at the very least, you could promote Lindblad over Lawson – who it’s understood has been ruled out from driving for Red Bull again.

For now, both Lawson and Lindblad are more than on course to see Racing Bulls match last season’s finish of sixth in the constructors championship, the best result in the team’s history.

Check your mirrors

So far this year, the highlight of Lawson’s season haven’t been how he attacks – he’s always been able to do that – it’s how he defends.

From China onwards, where he held off Hadjar’s faster car, through to Barcelona, the Kiwi is establishing himself as the driver you’d least want to be stuck behind. Even think back as far as Hungary last year, when Verstappen found himself trapped in Lawson’s mirrors.

After holding eighth place at lights out, Lawson found himself under attack from the pair of Audi’s Nico Hulkenberg and Alpine’s Pierre Gasly as the race wore on.

But despite both spending lap after lap within one second of the Racing Bulls, and therefore allowed to use their car’s overtake mode, neither was able to get around Lawson.

Gasly only claimed seventh to Lawson’s eighth after he stayed out of the pits long enough to benefit from the virtual safety car when Fernando Alonso’s Aston Martin gave up on lap 41.

There was suspicion Lawson had moved under braking to deny Hulkenberg into turn one, however the stewards deemed the incident not worth looking at, and at worst just a racing incident.

Regardless, as the season goes on, Lawson’s ability to hold positions on track will be vital if he can close out a top 10 finish in the championship.

Podiumgate

Gasly claiming seventh to Lawson’s ninth, later upgraded to eighth, wasn’t his only win in Barcelona either.

On Friday, the FIA – the sport’s governing body – declared he had been unfairly penalised in Monaco, and restored his third-place finish. That relegated Lawson from fifth to sixth, and saw him fall from ninth to 10th in the drivers championship.

Upon review, Gasly’s penalty for speeding in the pit lane was deemed to have been falsely applied, after it was found that said pit lane was actually 77cm shorter than it was supposed to be, likely a consequence of extending it to include an 11th team (Cadillac).

However, the drama is far from done. Both McLaren and Red Bull are able to appeal the findings, after Oscar Piastri and Hadjar were both demoted one place to accommodate Gasly’s reinstatement.

Whether or not they will is yet to be seen, but there could be some more wild point swings in the weeks to come.

Return to the Red Bull Ring

While a week off between races offers some brief respite in the middle of this packed schedule before the summer break, Austria will represent another chance for the Red Bull cars to impress.

Aside from being the home race for both Red Bull and Racing Bulls, Austria’s fast nature should be another circuit for the teams to target.

Following Monaco, it was judged that Red Bull’s Ford engine was the best performing on the grid, even if it’s yet to record a win this season.

Last year, Lawson survived an early incident at the Red Bull Ring that saw Verstappen taken out by Kimi Antonelli, and came home sixth for what was a career-best result.

In the 12 months since, the Kiwi has only improved, and will return to Austria as a more complete driver when taking his defence into account.

It would be beyond optimistic to ask for a similar result to last year. But as we’ve already seen this season, crazy things do happen once the lights go out.

See you then.

Alex Powell is a sports journalist for the NZ Herald. He has been a sports journalist since 2016.