Formula 1: Will Liam Lawson answer Red Bull’s SOS if Max Verstappen does the unthinkable? - Opinion

THE FACTS

Another race, another points finish for Liam Lawson.

For the third time in a row, this one also came after starting outside the top 10. After a front wing issue condemned the Kiwi to starting 14th on the grid, Lawson was on the right side of a safety car, and had enough to hold on for ninth.

Off the track, though, another Lawson display should be doing enough for the Kiwi to seal his future beyond this season.

Just where that future lies, though, is anyone’s guess.

Here’s what we learned at Suzuka.

Lawson’s luck turns

About time. While it’s almost impossible to put any kind of realistic gauge on luck, Lawson does seem to suffer more misfortune than most.

Last year a DRS fault prematurely ended his qualifying session in Bahrain, while two red flags at Imola did the same, and saw him start 16th as a result.

Even in China two weeks ago, Lawson suffered when the safety car came out one lap after his only pit stop, albeit he still managed to take seventh place.

So how satisfying was it when, for what seemed like the first time, fortune was on his side as Ollie Bearman hit the barrier, and gave Lawson a free stop to consolidate ninth?

Would he have finished in the top 10 without it? Probably not. But he also should have started higher up before front wing damage scuppered his qualifying session one day earlier.

From there, Lawson drove incredibly to keep Esteban Ocon’s Haas in his mirrors for 25 laps, even if the gap between the two drivers was never more than a second.

Lawson’s ability to attack might not be as on show in Formula One as it was in Formulas Two and Three.

But his defensive instincts are quickly becoming a highlight of his racecraft. And when you throw in the odd bit of luck here and there, we could see some special results this year.

Will Verstappen walk?

As was the case in 2025, there is no shortage of speculation about whether Max Verstappen will remain a Red Bull driver next year.

Last year, Red Bull even went as far as sacking longtime team principal Christian Horner to keep Verstappen and his father Jos happy, rather than lose the four-time world champion to Mercedes.

This year, though, that equation has changed dramatically. Even before lights out, Verstappen made noises that the sport’s new regulations were not to his liking.

Skip ahead four weeks, and those noises have only got louder.

“I’m not even frustrated anymore,” he told the media in Japan. “I’m beyond that, I don’t know the right word. I don’t know what to make of it, to be honest. Probably no words, I just can’t. I don’t get upset about it, I don’t get disappointed, frustrated by it anymore with what’s going on.”

There’s no secret that Verstappen’s contract has an exit clause that comes into effect as early as mid-season. While he could conceivably join another team, he could also walk away altogether.

The Herald understands there is incredible pressure within Red Bull’s stable to make use of its junior programme, rather than signing the best available driver like we saw with Sergio Perez in 2020.

It remains to be seen if that rule would continue if it were Verstappen they needed to replace.

Who, then, would Red Bull turn to? As the senior driver in its junior team, Lawson – as of right now – looms as the most obvious answer.

While teammate Arvid Lindblad is very clearly being groomed to step into that team one day, Lawson is the better driver at this moment in time, and would offer leadership to the inexperienced Isack Hadjar.

Admittedly, no driver has ever been re-promoted after being dropped by Red Bull. But none have had an opportunity of this size or significance.

However, Lawson has improved out of sight since that demotion, which even Verstappen disagreed with.

So, unless Red Bull can find a way to keep their man happy, Lawson could be the one the former world champions turn to.

Two doors shut?

As is usually the case with Formula One, the merry-go-round of drivers and bosses has started. This time around, they could have big ramifications for Lawson – if he’s to leave Red Bull.

The Herald understands Audi – formerly Sauber – were interested in signing Lawson in 2024, but missed out as Red Bull activated its contractual option to put the Kiwi in one of its cars.

The link between Lawson and Audi came from team boss Jonathan Wheatley, who had joined Sauber after acting as Red Bull sporting director.

However, in the two weeks between China and Japan, Wheatley has left Audi for what’s been labelled “personal reasons”, and is widely expected to join Aston Martin when his contractual stand-down period ends.

And if any links between Lawson and Wheatley give the Kiwi job security away from Red Bull, a move to Aston Martin feels like a very solid shutting of the door.

With one Aston Martin seat being permanently filled by Lance Stroll, son of team owner Lawrence Stroll, any opening would have to come from the other side of the garage. That second seat currently belongs to two-time world champion Fernando Alonso, who at age 44 has intimated this year will be his last.

But with Aston Martin now powered by a Honda engine, there is credible reason to believe that seat will go to Yuki Tsunoda. Honda are one of Tsunoda’s biggest supporters, as seen with his time across Red Bull’s both teams, and would undoubtedly use their influence to see him in at Aston Martin.

Naturally, then, Aston Martin appear off the cards as well, if Lawson was to leave Red Bull.

There is no reason to suggest that the link between Lawson and Audi was solely down to Wheatley.

However, with Nico Hulkenberg also potentially eyeing retirement at 38, and in the final year of his contract, clamour for a German driver to partner ex-Formula Two champion Gabriel Bortoleto could be high.

While still to be announced, Wheatley’s move to Aston Martin could have just taken two options off the table for the Kiwi’s future.

Lindblad’s lament

Spare a thought for Arvid Lindblad.

While history will remember a 14th-place finish, the rookie had a brilliant weekend, only to be scuppered by the same safety car that benefited his teammate.

In his first taste of racing at Suzuka, with no experience there in junior categories, the 18-year-old was excellent to put his car into the top 10, and even knocked Verstappen out of qualifying in the process.

As the only rookie on the grid this year, Lindblad has a slight advantage in the fact he hasn’t had to unlearn the old cars to get to grips with the new ones.

Were it not for the yellow flag, Lindblad would have his second lot of points in his career. That’s not how it works, though.

So while it’ll sting for now, there is still plenty to come from the teenager. It’s up to Lawson to have his measure, though.

The break

Thanks to the infinite wisdom of Donald Trump, Japan marks the last race until the start of May.

The Bahrain and Saudi Arabian grands prix have been cancelled, due to the tensions in the Middle East, meaning the season resumes in Miami after a five-week break.

Because that break falls within the season, though, teams won’t be stopped from working on their cars during that gap, as opposed to what we see over the European summer.

Everyone now knows the standard Mercedes have set, and will do their best to try and bridge the gap to the championship leaders.

As far as Racing Bulls are concerned, this season hasn’t seen the car anywhere near its best, as was the case in 2025.

“We haven’t actually been that fast,” Lawson professed after the race. “But we’ve still been able to come away with three points finishes. When we get a really quick car, we’ll obviously be in a better place.

“If we keep making the decisions we’re making, it’s quite exciting.”

Here’s hoping the next month flies by.

Alex Powell is a sports journalist for the NZ Herald. He has been a sports journalist since 2016.