All Blacks v England: Stats reveal where England will target the All Blacks’ selection changes

Whoever the All Blacks select in their back three for England, they can expect a sustained raid from the air.

The Leicester Tigers kicked their way to the 2020-21 Premiership title and, since assuming charge of England, Steve Borthwick has largely continued that modus operandi with the national team.

Look no further than George Ford’s recall at first five-eighth, Freddie Steward being reinstated at fullback and the selection of halfback Alex Mitchell, one of the most frequent and accurate box-kickers in the game, for the All Blacks game.

If ever there will be an examination of the All Blacks’ ability to defuse and counter the high ball, this weekend is it.

Last week at Murrayfield was a captivating contest between the All Blacks and Scotland, two teams who love to use the ball.

While England possess attacking threats and have scored one more try per game this season than the All Blacks (4.8 to 3.8), this weekend will be a contrasting spectacle.

The stats, provided by Opta, don’t lie. England kick more than any other Six Nations team – twice as much as Scotland.

Four times this year – against France, Argentina (twice) and the USA – England kicked for over 1000m per game.

On average, England have kicked 10 times more and for 258 more metres per game than the All Blacks this season.

Last week against Fiji, England kicked 27 times for 551m (their least this season) and with the attack-minded Fin Smith at first five. The All Blacks, by contrast, kicked 17 times for 389m against Scotland.

Nothing the All Blacks have presented in their struggles under the high ball will discourage England from pursuing these tactics this weekend.

After being exposed by the Pumas and Springboks, the All Blacks briefly improved their high-ball work against the Wallabies, only to starkly regress against Scotland.

England will, therefore, view aerial assault as the All Blacks’ kryptonite. And unless the All Blacks find a quick-fix solution at Twickenham, that could well prove true.

“We’ve won enough but we can win more. It’s been a clear focus for us,” All Blacks coach Scott Robertson noted. “You don’t get as many in Super Rugby so when you come into test rugby ... it’s like a set piece for us. You train your lineout, scrum, kickoffs and your high kicks.”

Losing Caleb Clarke to a head knock this week is a significant blow on this front.

Clarke wasn’t at his aerial best against Scotland but he remains the All Blacks’ best back-three asset under the high ball.

The path of least disruption for the All Blacks this week appears to be largely starting against England as they finished at Murrayfield, with Leicester Fainga’anuku shifting to the wing to replace Clarke and Billy Proctor joining Quinn Tupaea in the midfield.

Robertson has many other options at his disposal, which includes returning Rieko Ioane to a starting role at either centre or on the left wing.

Proctor’s inclusion on the bench last week, though, signalled he remains ahead of Ioane in the centre pecking order.

Leroy Carter’s wane in form and brain-snap foot-trip which cost him a yellow card against Scotland will be scrutinised, too, particularly with Damian McKenzie in superb form and Will Jordan comfortable moving from fullback to the wing.

Robertson, though, has long favoured one power wing in his starting side, which strongly suggests Fainga’anuku will replace Clarke – as he did for his first test in two years in the victory over the Wallabies in Perth.

A back three comprising Jordan, Carter and Fainga’anuku, which would leave McKenzie to continue his super-sub status, hardly evokes confidence the All Blacks will cope with the high-ball barrage that awaits.

Jordan remains a try-scoring attacking weapon but his struggles under the high ball are the only element holding him back from the title of world’s best fullback.

Jordie Barrett’s absence is another telling loss as it was his tall presence sweeping the back field that helped the All Blacks improve their high-ball accuracy against the Wallabies, before he suffered a season-ending injury in the opening match of this Grand Slam tour in Chicago.

Rule changes that outlawed escorts (teammates protecting the receiver in the air through shielding) encourage and enhance the box kick by rendering the aerial contest a 50/50 lottery.

New Zealand Rugby, though, must assume responsibility for not upskilling in this influential department.

Finishing with brilliance, carrying with speed and power on the edge makes for great entertainment but what the All Blacks would give to reincarnate one back three exponent with the aerial abilities of Israel Dagg, Cory Jane and Ben Smith.

Robertson knows what’s coming this weekend. Whether the All Blacks can solve this flaw is another matter.

“Northern Hemisphere, you’re going to get that. The last couple of games we’ve had it and it’s going to keep coming. It’s part of the game and the way it is. You can’t escort and it’s more of a contest so it’s more of a competition. We’re aware of that. You focus on the style of kicks you’re going to get and their roles in the air and around the ball. There’s a lot that goes into it.

“England can play, shift the ball, as well. They’ve got some great power and finishers too.”

While his focus is primarily on preparing the All Blacks forward pack for a relentless physical battle, Jason Ryan acknowledged the pivotal nature of the aerial game.

“It’s part of their DNA. It’s what they do. We saw in the England A game against the All Blacks XV that was the same,” Ryan said. “Good on them. It’s obviously a strength for them. The big one for us is getting back and being in position around the ruck.”

Matching England’s “Pom squad” six forwards, two backs bench split is another selection consideration, with Simon Parker’s size possibly in line to return alongside Ioane.

Possible All Blacks team for England

15 Will Jordan, 14 Leroy Carter, 13 Billy Proctor, 12 Quinn Tupaea, 11 Leicester Fainga’anuku, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Peter Lakai, 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Wallace Sititi, 5 Fabian Holland, 4 Scott Barrett, 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot

Reserves: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Josh Lord, 20 Simon Parker, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Rieko Ioane, 23 Damian McKenzie

Liam Napier is a Senior Sports Journalist and Rugby Correspondent for the New Zealand Herald. He is a co-host of the Rugby Direct podcast.