Bay of Plenty becomes NZ’s top ranked economy

Bay of Plenty was the country’s best performing region at the start of the year, ending Canterbury’s run at the top.

ASB’s Regional Economic Scoreboard for the three months ended March had Bay of Plenty first, followed by Canterbury and Otago.

The scoreboard ranked 16 regions across various indicators, including employment, construction, house prices, retail trade and consumer confidence.

ASB said Bay of Plenty was supported by strong jobs growth and solid gains across construction demand, retail spending and the housing market.

Chief economist Nick Tuffley said the region’s performance reflected the strength of its primary sector and exports.

“After a bumper 2025 kiwifruit season and a strong start to 2026, the Bay of Plenty has reclaimed the top spot. Strong export demand and solid employment growth are underpinning the region’s momentum,” Tuffley said.

Despite losing the top spot after two consecutive quarters, Tuffley said Canterbury remained in a strong position, supported by dairy, population growth, tourism and ongoing investment.

Otago also continued to perform strongly, driven by retail spending and tourism, although employment growth softened.

Auckland fell one place to fifth, while Wellington rose three places to 13th.

ASB said five of the North Island’s eight regions placed in the top half of the scoreboard, reflecting improving momentum.

“The regional story this quarter is one of a more balanced recovery,” Tuffley said.

“We’re seeing broader improvement across the North Island, with most regions now sitting in the top half of the rankings.”

‘Storm clouds are looming’

The scoreboard captured the state of play largely prior to the effects of the US-Iran war flowing through.

“While there are encouraging signs of recovery, storm clouds are looming,” Tuffley said.

“Inflation remains elevated and global developments, particularly the Middle East conflict, are expected to weigh on growth, cost pressures and consumer confidence in the short term,” he said.

ASB forecast March quarter GDP growth of 0.8 percent, with momentum expected to show signs of slowdown in the months after.

“With inflation expected to remain above the RBNZ’s target for much of 2026 and cost pressures building, the pace of the recovery is likely to remain uneven across regions,” Tuffley said.

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