Chris Hipkins insists Labour hasn’t lost momentum despite drop in support

Chris Hipkins insists Labour hasn’t lost its momentum, despite dropping in support since January.

He says the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll shows what other polls are showing, “which is a trend away from the National Party, a trend towards a change of government.”

Labour is maintaining its hold on the top spot at 34 percent, despite a drop in support of 1.6 points since March, in the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll.

National has slumped to its lowest level of support since Christopher Luxon became leader, falling 2.1 points to 28.7 percent.

Speaking to RNZ’s Morning Report, Hipkins said the drop in support for the major parties, and the increasing support for the minor parties, was a reflection of “how weak” the National Party was as a first-term party leading a government.

“I don’t think we’ve ever seen a party under MMP in New Zealand that’s been this unpopular in its first term.”

Asked why Labour wasn’t polling higher as a result, Hipkins said “conversely, we’re probably one of the most popular first term oppositions since MMP was introduced.”

“My goal is to build on that platform and make sure that we get ourselves into a position where we can form the government after the next election.

“All MMP elections are very close elections, and this is going to be a very close election,” said Hipkins.

Asked again why Labour wasn’t polling higher, Hipkins said the party had had a “heck of a turnaround” in the space of two years, having jumped around 6 points since the election.

He said it was “absolutely” Labour’s goal to go further.

Asked why the upward trajectory hadn’t continued since January this year, despite the rise since the election, and why momentum had been lost, Hipkins said “I don’t think we have lost that momentum.”

“What you’ve just explained there is the biggest increase in support of any political party in the last two and a half years,” he said.

“The election campaign is just getting underway. We’re starting to announce our own policies.

“I understand that people have been holding back, wanting to know what Labour’s going to be campaigning on, so we’ve started to make more policy announcements. And my goal now is to continue to build that momentum.”

Hipkins told RNZ National’s KiwiSaver policy was “half-baked” because the party hadn’t yet explained how making it compulsory would work for those who can’t afford it.

“It’s going to force some of our lowest income earners into significant financial hardship.”

He also told RNZ Labour agreed that New Zealand should be having discussions about joining the Ocean of Peace Alliance between Australia and Fiji.

Given Australia was New Zealand’s only formal ally, when they enter another relationship with another country “of course, it’s something that we should be very engaged in and take an interest in.”

National down again

National Party volunteer Brigitte Morten said while there would be discussions on what could be done differently, there won’t be a leadership change off the back of this poll.

“Most politicians regardless of what colour, know that stability is a key factor, particularly when people are feeling uncertain.”

Morten is also the Managing Director of law firm Franks Ogilvie and a former senior ministerial advisor for the previous National-led government.

She told Morning Report it was “absolutely frustrating” for any party to see a continued drop in support, especially given National had delivered a Budget that was “reasonably well received”, a “very popular KiwiSaver announcement” and the Indian Free Trade Agreement.

She said it confirmed what all the polls were saying, including international politics, that people were frustrated by the economy, and said it reflected how people were feeling about the situation rather than a particular party or poll.

Morten said the bigger parties Labour and National were “generally sitting pretty low overall” compared to where they would historically.

“That changes the dynamic when you start to think about coalitions and actually the makeup of what a government would look like post an election.”

She also said New Zealand had moved away from the “celebrity prime minister”, without a John Key or Jacinda Ardern in the mix.

“You’ve got to look at basically the two Chrises, Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon.

“Neither of them, I think, are having a particularly big pull or push on how their party vote is happening at the moment.”

She said there wouldn’t be a leadership change off the back of this poll, but it would “continue to send the message” that the main thing National needs to sell is what they’re doing to get the economy “back up and rearing.”

She pointed to the numbers showing voters appearing to be less gloomy than they were in March, despite sentiment remained firmly negative overall.

The poll results showed 34.7 percent (up 2.4 pts) of respondents thought the country was heading in the right direction, compared to 46.5 percent (down 3.5 pts) who thought the opposite.

Morten said the Prime Minister could look at that with “some optimism”.