Is a new kind of March Madness on public transport upon Auckland?
Monday, 25 February 2019
OPINION: What happens when you take Auckland public transport's infamous peak-use month known as March Madness, and add a bus driver shortage? We are about to find out.
Despite its popular description as 'madness', there is nothing unexpected or freakish about the seasonal crush on buses and trains that prompts social media grumbles, and accusations of official incompetence.
March is when tertiary students rejoin the commuting ranks, and the season in which the fewest number of people take annual holidays.
It is a period that actually runs from late February into April, and on Auckland's central bus arterials like Mt Eden Road, the 'Bus Full' sign is already being deployed in the morning peak.
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Auckland Transport's main task in past years has been to try to find 'spare' buses in the fleets of operators, and deploy them where daily data shows the squeezes are worst.
Two things change the game this year and could point to more frustration than normal.
The biggest is the growing shortage of bus drivers, especially at NZ Bus which is juggling pressure not only in its Auckland and Wellington runs, but also with new services it has taken over in Tauranga, and is struggling to staff.
Driver shortages are a big part of cancellations running on average at 1-2 per cent in Auckland out of the 13,000 provided daily.
That peaked at 4 per cent in mid-December, and reached almost that level in mid-February.
Ironically, the success in boosting bus patronage in Auckland is the other problem emerging this March Madness season.
The roll-out of the 'New Network' bus service changes was completed last year, and new contracts saw operators boost fleet numbers, and deploy almost all that they had, into more frequent services.
That additional capacity is being filled by continuing patronage growth, and operators have fewer surplus buses sitting in depots.
Auckland Transport has seen this coming but a report to its board in December, highlighted its limited ability to deal with March Madness 2019.
'There is some early evidence of capacity constraints on key routes,' the board was told.
Not only that, but AT has spent most its public transport budget boosting everyday services, leaving it a measly $180,000 in the war chest for March Madness.
March Madness could this year be a showcase for structural problems in the public transport industry, especially in Auckland.
Trade Unions link the driver shortage to poor working conditions and long hours, at a time when unemployment is low and job-seekers have more attractive options.
They link it to the Government-imposed competitive tendering system catchily called PTOM, under which the unions say bus companies have pitched tender bids so low, their only wriggle-room is to put the squeeze on drivers.
The Government is exploring that link, but refuses yet to release research it has carried out.
Ultimately this is all in the hands of politicians, central and local, a point to remember if your bus goes past you with the 'full' sign up in the next weeks.