Auckland's mayoral election: Can it change the political map?

Saturday, 5 October 2019

OPINION: The outcome of the fourth mayoralty race in Auckland Council's nine-year history will show whether the established local body political colour scheme can be changed.

Challenger John Tamihere's unprecedented move to build a red-blue alliance with Christine Fletcher as a running-mate is intended to blur the established political divide in the city.

Past contests have been traditional red-blue, left-right affairs, with a centrist left-leaning candidate winning comfortably each time. Twice Len Brown, once Phil Goff.

A Stuff map of the 2016 contest between Goff and National-backed Vic Crone shows how the land lay after the last contest, with Goff harvesting big in the west and south, only narrowly losing in much of the blue-belt, and even winning one area.

**READ MORE:

* Auckland's mayoral race: The battle of the blue-red combos

* John Tamihere and Christine Fletcher team up to challenge Phil Goff

* Labour endorses Phil Goff for 2019 Auckland mayoralty

* Who won the Stuff Auckland mayoral debate?​**

Here is how it played out last time.

Goff won only one of five local board areas north of the harbour bridge, taking lower-income Kaipatiki comfortably.

However in the traditional left-right contest of 2016, Crone's winning margins elsewhere north of the Waitematā Harbour were narrow.

In Devonport-Takapuna Crone edged-out Goff by just 134 votes, in Upper Harbour by 477 votes

Even in true-blue Orakei, the two-vote split between National Party-backed Crone and Labour-backed Goff was 55 per cent - 45 per cent.

Another National Party stronghold, Howick, had twice backed Brown but possibly due to familiarity with him as their former mayor of Manukau City.

Enter Goff in 2016, with no local history and he still picked up 57.6 per cent of the Goff-Crone total.

It is in Labour strongholds that Goff, and Len Brown before him, harvested much of their overall majority.

The most dramatic result was in southern Otara-Papatoetoe where Goff took 89 per cent of the pair's total vote, and 81 per cent in neighbouring Māngere-Ōtāhuhu.

In Puketāpapa, which was Goff's old parliamentary electorate, he took four votes for every one that went to Crone.

So by October 12, what does John Tamihere need to do to the map, to win?

Tamihere himself is seen as the drawcard in the west where his political and corporate careers have been based. He lives in Te Atatu.

Similarly his portrayal as the candidate most aligned to the vulnerable, and to lower-income households is the card being played in Labour strongholds in the south.

However Tamihere will need to make a big impact there if he is to erode Goff's almost 75,891 majority over Crone in 2016.

Henderson-Massey in the west and Whau in the inner-west were almost three-to-one in favour of Goff, meaning Tamihere will need to secure a large chunk of votes.

The greatest challenge for Tamihere will be to at least hang on to the 'anti-Goff' vote in the bluer parts of town, a strategy where the influence of running-mate, former National MP and one-time Auckland City mayor Christine Fletcher has to pay off.

Even in Fletcher's own neighbourhood, where she comfortably secured the second ward seat, Goff reaped more than double the vote of Crone, in the Albert-Eden local board area.

Whether her alliance with Tamihere can swing the mayoral voting pattern could be critical to her running mate's chances in Auckland.

Goff will need to maximise his Labour-heritage in the south and west, and hope his fiscally-conservative record can again serve him well in central and northern suburbs.

Completed voting papers need to be in the post by Tuesday October 8, with hand-delivered voting closing at midday on October 12.