Phil Goff's second term as Auckland mayor could be his toughest political challenge yet
Sunday, 13 October 2019
ANALYSIS: Phil Goff's political savvy will be severely tested by a cocktail of challenges, and a possibly less-supportive council for his second term as Auckland's mayor.
Goff's 85,135 vote win over John Tamihere may look like a comfortable mandate, but it will count for little when the 21-seat council assembles next month.
The 36-year political veteran will face a better-organised 'opposition', and will miss the talented consensus-builder Penny Hulse, who provided valuable support in term one before retiring, and all of this as big and potentially pricey decisions head Auckland Council's way.
Goff's weakness in his first term had been his struggle to adapt to the more collegial world of local body politics - a world different to the formally tribal environment of Parliament.
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He burned-off important support almost on arrival in 2016, stripping veteran councillors and initial supporters Mike Lee and Christine Fletcher of their $50,000 directorships of Auckland Transport.
Goff seemed powerless to defuse growing antagonism with a group of councillors who proudly dubbed themselves the 'B team' and delivered some embarrassing, though minor, defeats.
In a sit-down interview with Stuff after his victory speech, Goff said he had spoken to some councillors about a more co-operative atmosphere.
'I've talked to a few of them, and said let's look at how we can co-operate on the new council, and they've indicated a willingness to do that - but it doesn't mean my view will always prevail,' said Goff.
Goff portrayed disagreement as normal: 'I imagine I'll still be in the minority on some issues, and that's the nature of the council beast, it has always been like that.'
However that is not quite right. His predecessor Len Brown lost fewer votes in his two terms than Goff lost in one afternoon.
Goff will have to attract majority support to tackle climate change, improve and make public transport services more affordable, and put the heat on the government to move on light rail.
'How does council react to climate change, how does that flow through to public transport funding and to budgets.' asked Matt Lowrie from the transport and urban-focussed website greaterauckland.org.nz.
He is keeping mum on his thoughts on climate change action for a few more weeks, but insists he is pushing for progress from the government on light rail.
The government is expected to announce in February, which of two options it will pursue - the longer-developed one in the hands of NZTA, or a possibly privately-funded one promoted by a Canadian consortium including the Super Fund.
How hard is he pushing though - is he demanding a spade in the ground in the next council term?
'They've given me the (February) date, once they've made it I want to see progress at the earliest possible time,' Goff told Stuff.
What if the government favours an option that suits their funding needs, but is not the best for Auckland?
'If we were paying for it, we'd be demanding a full say over it - we're not paying for it and the decision on whether it works for Auckland is a joint decision,' he said.
Goff dismissed the campaign portrayal by Tamihere, that he was a government poodle, and he has to prove it on a project as important as light rail.
A more organised 'opposition' has been building, led by wily Manurewa Ward candidate Daniel Newman and how that manifests itself as votes come before councillors, is unclear.
'I don't wish for council to be a place of obstruction, but of progress,' said Newman enigmatically.
Fletcher is back after being Tamihere's running-mate and backing his plan to freeze rates, while Lee is within a 150 votes of retaining his seat, depending on how special votes are split with the more Goff-aligned Pippa Coom.
Goff ally Ross Clow is 178 votes behind in his bid to retain the Whau Ward, provisionally in the hands of centre-right Tracy Mulholland.
The fiscal stakes will rise with the council's average rate rise next year pencilled in at 3.5 per cent, instead of the 2.5 per cent path of the past four year.
Goff may find push-back to the higher figure from the emboldened opposition, just at a time when the council really needs to face some big bills.
The mayor and senior councillors have promised improved ferry services, but the financial arithmetic for that will be confronting for a council whose agency Auckland Transport is still working out how to fund expensive new vessels it wants to see on the water.
Goff needs to bundle all these challenges into a coherent vision and action plan to present to councillors.
'He needs to pick two or three big things, make those his priority, wrap them up in a vision and go after them,' said a political strategist who did not wish to be named.
Goff in his victory speech described being mayor as harder than being a cabinet minister, but not as tough as being leader of the opposition.
He will have to work hard for that comparison not to change.