New Zealand migration gains lowest since 2015 as more people leave than arrive

Thursday, 22 November 2018

While the number of people coming to live in New Zealand remains high by historic levels, net migration fell to the lowest level in more than three years in the year to October 31.

More people are heading overseas, and arrivals are dropping, sending the net gain from migration to the lowest level in more than three years.

Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday that in the year to October 31, New Zealand gained 61,751 people, around 1000 lower than in the year to the end of September, and almost 10,000 below the peak of early 2017.

Migrant arrivals were 128,100 during the 12 months, a fall of 3500, while departures rose by more than 5000 to 66,400.

The number of both New Zealand citizens and non-citizens leaving New Zealand is increasing, while the number of citizens and non-citizens arriving in New Zealand is falling.

A China Southern dreamliner parked at Christchurch Airport. The number of people arriving in New Zealand planning to stay for more than a year is falling, while the number of people heading overseas is increasing.

* NZ's three booms - tourism, migration, construction - may have peaked

* New Zealand's economic growth driven almost exclusively by rising population**

ASB senior economist Mark Smith said while migration was falling, it appeared that the the pace of deceleration was easing, with the gain from migration in October similar to September.

'The figures are volatile, but they do not suggest net immigration is rapidly slowing,' Smith said.

'We expect annual net [permanent, long term] inflows to continue to gradually recede from record highs, reaching around 40,000-45,000 persons by the end of next year.'