Christchurch best poised city for population growth, new report says

Wednesday, 26 December 2018

Christchurch's population could grow significantly without problem thanks to its strong economy, steady housing market and availability of land.

A new reports states Christchurch is 'uniquely placed' among New Zealand cities to absorb significant population growth.

The quarterly economic report – from promotional and economic development agency ChristchurchNZ – lists the city's rebuild platform and the state of its economy and housing market as advantages for future growth.

These strengths meant the city could expand 'without the additional costs and challenges facing other cities', the report says.

**READ MORE:

* Progress for Christchurch is good for the country

* Christchurch population steadies after leakage to districts

* Christchurch economy adjusting as growth eases**

'House price and rents … remain stable in contrast to continued growth in national housing costs.'

Real estate figures show Christchurch house prices have increased only slightly in three years to a median of about $470,000, which is more than $100,000 under the national average, while rents have fallen.

Statistics New Zealand forecasts indicate the population inside Christchurch City Council boundaries could grow from 388,000 now to as much as 526,000 in 25 years, a rise of 35 per cent. 

The city's population recovered to pass pre-quake levels in 2016, and an estimated 400,000-plus now live in metropolitan areas in Greater Christchurch, including the fast-growing Waimakariri and Selwyn districts. The rise has been mostly from immigration, and from ex-patriates returning, making the population more ethnically diverse.

Recent projections indicate Canterbury needs about 106,000 migrants over the next 15 years, or about 6600 people yearly, to fill both skilled and unskilled jobs.

City council research shows Christchurch has twice the space it needs for new housing space in the next decade, including sections for 30,000 new homes and unsubdivided sites for another 14,000. The city also has nearly 700 hectares of land for business growth.

City councillor Vicki Buck said Christchurch did not have the difficulties North Island cities were experiencing of high house prices, overstretched infrastructure and lengthening commuting times.

Access to lifestyle opportunities, health services and strong sectors such as technology and eduction also made Christchurch attractive to live in, Buck said.

'I think we've got a huge amount going for us.'

The ChristchurchNZ report said that despite 'transitional challenges' in the short term, both the economic fundamentals of the city and the regional economies remained strong.

In central Christchurch, the number of businesses grew 2 per cent from June 2017 to June 2018, and the number of central city workers grew 8 per cent in the same period.

The report showed incomes in Canterbury remained below the national average and the rate of increase in the past year was also lower.

The average Canterbury employee earned $995 a week in the July to September quarter, including overtime, an increase of 2.8 per cent in a year. Weekly average earnings elsewhere were $1170 in the Wellington region, $1107 in Auckland, and $971 in the rest of the country.

Nationally incomes rose 3.7 per cent, reaching an average of $1048. 

The report said that business confidence in the city and region had declined, as it had nationally. While the Canterbury economy continued to grow, the rate of growth had slowed since the peak of the rebuild, it said.

In the year to September, the economy grew by 2.3 per cent in Canterbury and 1.6 per cent in Christchurch. 

Across the South Island, 38 per cent of South Island firms reported increased difficulty finding skilled workers, and 25 per cent had more trouble finding unskilled workers.

The report also noted that Christchurch's employment rate remained above national averages, with the visitor economy a significant growth market for both the city and Canterbury.

The number of international visitors grew by 11.6 per cent in the year to September, and visitor spending rose 11.3 per cent, 'implying spend per visitor is increasing'.

The biggest increase in visitor numbers was from the United States and China, while numbers visiting from South Korea and Britain fell.

Figures in the report are taken from Government and local authority sources, bank data, real estate figures and commercial research.

GREATER CHRISTCHURCH POPULATION ESTIMATES

2010: 389,900

2011: 375,200

2012: 367,500

2013: 369,200

2014: 375,200

2015: 381,800

2016: 389,600

2017: 396,700

2018: 400,000+

(Source: Statistics NZ)