The tourism boom is over, prepare for visitor numbers to flatline

Wednesday, 31 July 2019

'The boom is over.'

Tourism Industry Aotearoa chief executive Chris Roberts is blunt about the outlook ahead as arrivals from key markets like China continue to fall.

At the last of four regional industry forums held in Christchurch on Wednesday, he gave tourism operators the message that the days of double digit growth in international visitors were well and truly over and they needed to adjust to that. 

'We're still growing, but at a much slower rate and we may come to a complete stand still this year; we may get to zero.'

**READ MORE:

* Brexit hits the backpacker market and spending plunges by $167m

* Chinese New Year not so happy for New Zealand tourism

*  New Zealand tourism shake up as Government promises to manage [growth

​](https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/112634551/the-governments-new-tourism-strategy-promises-to-better-manage-future-growth?rm=m)* ​Tourism New Zealand rethinks promos to super rich and super budget travellers**

Roberts said tourism had done well out of international numbers rising almost 40 per cent in five years, and some businesses viewed the current situation as an opportunity to take 'a bit of a breather.'

There was very little panic about the slowing growth, even though some operators had experienced a fall in business. 

'If a large part of your business is young Germans, that market is down may be 15 to 20 per cent, so within the industry some people will be having a bit of pain, but generally they're saying we can't complain too much  because we've had four or five really good years, and it could never go on forever.'

Visitor spending was continuing to climb, surpassing $40 billion annually, but falling consumer confidence in Australia, Britain and China was affecting visitor numbers. 

Roberts said spending on domestic tourism was up 10 per cent in Australia, our largest visitor market, and having more Aussies holidaying at home was not good for New Zealand. 

Boris Johnson's elevation to Prime Minister may encourage some Brits to think twice about 'whether they can have that once in a lifetime to to New Zealand or pop over to Benidorm​ [in Spain] instead.'

Chinese visitors, once predicted to hit a million a year by 2022, were down 10 per for the first six months of 2019, despite it being the official China New Zealand Year of Tourism.

Roberts said that event was more about developing long term relationships so it was never going to boost numbers coming to New Zealand.

The continuing drop in Chinese visitors reflected concern about a US China trade war, but a sudden reversal was quite possible.

'The thing about China is that the switch suddenly goes and it could be up 30 per cent in a year's time.'

Processing of visitor visas for Indian holiday makers was still a major concern with some Indian travel agents halting sales of New Zealand holidays until lengthy delays were resolved.

'When a travel agent has a group of 20 whose holiday falls over because the visas don't come through in time, when the next group comes in they'll say I don't have confidence I can get you to New Zealand, here's a package for Australia, Canada or Europe.'

November and December were popular months for the Indian market and tourism operators had their fingers crossed Immigration New Zealand sorted processing issues in time for the expected wave of visa applications.

Roberts also emphasised the need to counter a growing backlash against long haul travel as 'flight shaming' became a trend in  Scandinavia countries.

He said off setting carbon produced by a flight to New Zealand cost about $40, yet only about 5 per cent of travellers bothered to take up that option.