Bumpy year ahead for tourism thanks to virus travel bans

Monday, 27 January 2020

China has curbed travel and stepped up screening to try and curb the spread of the virus which emerged in December.

One major tourism operator estimates it could lose 10,000 customers a month while the coronavirus travel ban remains in place.

Wayfare chief executive Richard Lauder said the Chinese Government's decision to halt all group and package tours would inevitably begin to affect its operations which include Real Journeys and Go Orange, and could possibly lead to a reduction in sailings on Milford Sound and Lake Wakitipu.

But with tourism accounting for 20 per cent of New Zealand's export earnings, the wider economy will also likely feel the pain as higher spending Chinese visitor numbers tail off over the Chinese New Year holiday period, a time when they would normally peak.

Tourism New Zealand chief executive Stephen England-Hall said they had anticipated the recent decline in Chinese holiday arrivals (which totalled about 330,000 last year) would pick up over the coming summer. 'But that's clearly unlikely to happen at this point.'

**READ MORE:

Wayfare (formerly Real Journeys) chief executive Richard Lauder says the flow on effect of travel bans imposed by the Chinese Government will start to be felt later this week. The company's Milford Sound and Lake Wakatipu cruises are popular with visitors coming here to celebrate Chinese New Year.

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Milford Sound (pictured), Queenstown and Rotorua are more likely to be affected by a drop in tourist numbers as a result of the coronavirus, says Tourism New Zealand chief executive Stephen England-Hall.

England-Hall warned late last year that predicted Chinese visitor numbers had been overly optimistic and their forecast spend over the next two years was likely to be down by half a billion dollars,

'but that didn't take into account a major external event like the coronavirus.

'Those businesses heavily dependent on the Chinese market will feel some impact and the size of that will depend on exactly how the ban is implemented at local level in China, but people should plan on having a pretty bumpy year.'

About 40 per cent of Skyline Enterprises customers are Chinese at this time of year, and like many other Queenstown businesses, it is anxious about the impact of the coronavirus.

He said it was also possible that fear of infection could encourage travellers from countries outside China to postpone holidays.

'There is a risk that in some more risk averse cultures they might just say 'we'll stay home this year and we'll go next year.'

'If that happens at any scale that will have a significant impact across the tourism industry globally.'

According to figures from Immigration New Zealand, 34,615 Chinese visitors arrived in New Zealand between December 22 and January 21.

Over the same period 37,025 Chinese had visitor visas approved, about a third of them on group tours.

But it remains to be seen how many of them actually make it here because those who made their bookings independently online are not covered by the Chinese Government's travel ban.

England-Hall said TNZ was working with INZ and airlines to get a handle on cancellation levels.

However, exactly how those visitors who did arrive have dispersed around the country is unknown.

Lincoln University tourism professor David Simmons said that highlighted the need for better tourism data to understand travel flows because there was no point in having a 'big base response' in terms of medical facilities in cities like Auckland.

'Visitors don't arrive and sit in Auckland for 10 days.

'After 10 days we ought to know where they are in the country; some may be in Queenstown, others will be beginning to flow up the West Coast of the South Island, some may be around Taranaki.'

*This story has been corrected to reflect that 10,000 customers a month will affected.