Coronavirus to hit 'harder and deeper' than Kaikōura earthquake
Saturday, 2 May 2020
Kaikōura was surfing the wave of a solid summer, confident and excited for the future when the coronavirus hit.
Business had finally recovered after the 7.8 magnitude earthquake three years before, with a summer filled with throngs of tourists peeking into shops on the main street, and eager internationals queueing to see Kaikōura’s wildlife.
But a month on, it was as if the town had been transported in a “time capsule” to the 1980s, to the days before tourism took off.
Back then, the town relied on businesses like the cheese factory, the sawmill and a prominent fishing fleet, but those industries had either shrunk or no longer existed, Whale Watch Kaikōura general manager Kauahi Ngapora said.
**READ MORE:
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* Quakes may be mortal blow for Kaikoura's tourism industry
**
“We’re going to go back to that scenario but without the businesses which once propped up the town, so that’s a worry,” he said.
Following the earthquake in November 2016, New Zealand’s focus turned to Kaikōura, and the region was flooded with support.
As the town was cut off from the rest of the world, and the tourism industry was put on hold, tourism staff were able to shift into the workforce tasked with the massive job of rebuilding the region’s roads and infrastructure, Ngapora said.
“But now the whole country is feeling the pain”, and those construction jobs have all but wrapped up, he said.
“This is easily going to be much harder and deeper than what we experienced with the earthquake.”
With more than 40 per cent of Kaikōura’s workforce employed in tourism, and another 30 per cent having some connection with tourism, he expected unemployment to be “pretty steep” if other job avenues were not identified.
And the most “daunting thing” was the road ahead. They were looking at November 2020 to potentially reopen Whale Watch to a domestic market, provided that New Zealand was at alert level one or had no alert levels by that time. That would require a significant “pivot” in their business model, as formerly 80 per cent of their customers were from overseas.
They were planning for November 2021 as a potential time for the international market to come into play and didn’t expect tourism to return to its “new normal” until June 2023.
“We like to plan for what could potentially be the worse case scenarios but hopefully things work out better than that,” he said.
However, there were strengths for the town moving forward, like the ability to come together as was done post-quake, and the natural assets which would still be there when coronavirus passed, Ngapora said.
Dolphin Encounter Kaikōura business manager Lynette Burman said they thought the earthquake was a large event when it occurred, but it was “tiny by comparison” to the global impact of coronavirus.
But businesses had become more resilient post-quake. They had been given significant Government support and opportunities to rethink and strengthen their business model.
“It was a learning opportunity even though it was a really harsh way to learn.”
The earthquake was a “trial run” in some respects, because they were forced to face the vulnerabilities within their businesses.
“But this of course is bigger than just being resilient, this is survival,” Burman said.
“The uncertainty and the lack of ability to make assumptions on anything is what’s challenging, but it’s all about self belief.”
One strength of the town was its seasonality. They were accustomed to intense summers and very low winters, and were fortunate the lockdown hit when it did, she said.
A self-proclaimed optimist, she said Kaikōura would “forge a path forward”.
“We will come back, but there’s definitely going to be some casualties along the way.”
Coopers Catch owner Jason Hill said they spent the five weeks of lockdown intensely making plans on how to adapt their two hospitality businesses. This included a business forecast for the next three years and setting up a phone application.
“We had to really think outside the square where we can,” Hill said.
They were “fine-tuning” their business in every way they could. They even planted a lemon orchard, which wouldn't be producing for a few years, but would eventually save them $15,000 which they spent annually giving slices of lemon away.
They opened on the first day of level three, with a “fantastic” day to start, followed by a “very average” one.
“It’s just great to be open.
“It’s going to be a really hard 12 months, for any business. In reality, it's a couple of years to get through this.”
They were only just recovering from the earthquake, he said.
“It adds to the pressure. It's really made it a lot worse.
“But we have learnt a lot, and that's why we've done all this work.
Kaikōura Surf owner Wayne Shanks said the past month was reminiscent of three years earlier.
“Most people you speak to in Kaikōura are like ‘oh yeah, here we go again’.”
He thought their experience meant they were well-equipped to deal with the challenge, but it also brought up the earthquake trauma again.
“We’ll rebuild again, we do every time, it might just take a bit longer.”
A shipment of pre-ordered wetsuits had just arrived, and a surfboard was on its way, but he had been forced to warn his suppliers not to expect the payment on time.
“When you’re earning zero, no matter how you play with the numbers, it’s still zero,” Shanks said.
Penny Betts has been running her clothing shop Gecko Gearz on Main St for 20 years, but said business had been “non-existent” since lockdown began. Their website had just gone live, and they were waiting to see if there was an uptake.
“I feel like I’m going to be fine eventually, but we haven’t recovered from the earthquake,” she said.
Her shop was still in an earthquake damaged building, and her insurance payment had only just come through.
But she also had great concerns for the people she worked with in Nepal and the Maldives, prompting her to start a fundraiser.
“In New Zealand we’re going to be OK. I don’t have to make a big profit, I just have to get by, but I’m worried about my friends overseas.”
Clarence farmer and Kaikōura councillor Derrick Millton said he thought most farmers had not experienced much of a change.
“We had to carry on looking after our livestock … we just got on with our day-to-day work.”
“We see from a council point of view what a terrible thing this will be for Kaikōura. The businesses had a very good year, and they were just coming off a good tourism season.”
He hoped the domestic tourism market would keep local operations going until the international visitors returned, saying he thought people in Christchurch might enjoy a less crowded summer season and a chance to try iconic activities.
Business association Future Kaikōura was set up following on from the earthquake and was now in regular contact with about 360 businesses.
Committee member Mel Skinner said a lot of businesses were working out how to adapt, with tourism operators looking to a domestic market, and retail moving online.
The association had brought back Shop Kaikōura — a website set up after the earthquake, to connect people with local businesses.
Skinner said the strength of the Kaikōura community was the relationships that had been built between businesses.
“The businesses know that by working together they can achieve a lot more. We have some really strong and resilient businesses here, after going through the earthquake and being cut off.”