Aucklanders buying fewer homes in the regions, but cost of living could change that

Friday, 27 January 2023

Right now, Aucklanders are not moving into the regions as much as they did, but that could change as they try and reduce their living costs.

Regional dwellers are “jumping the gun” if they blame Aucklanders for continued house price pressures, CoreLogic head of research Nick Goodall says, with data showing they are buying proportionally fewer of their homes.

However, Goodall said that could reverse if inflation and the cost of living remained high for much longer, as it could push Aucklanders to start looking for cheaper places to live and buy.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures showed inflation remained stubbornly high at 7.2% in the December quarter, increasing the likelihood that the Reserve Bank will increase the official cash rate (OCR) in February, which was likely to result in shorter-term home loan rates increasing.

The exception to the general trend of Aucklander pulling back was in Christchurch, where the proportion of properties going to Auckland investors actually peaked in the final quarter of 2022.

* Owners listing their homes for highest-ever prices in eight regions

* Invercargill house values see growth spurt

During this period they made up 4.7% of purchases, compared to the previous peak of 4.4%, also set in 2022, during the second quarter of the year.

“I think it reflects the affordability of Christchurch combined with economic prospects.

“The average and median value in Christchurch is much lower than both Auckland and Wellington so for a city that size there’s much greater value there.”

Goodall said the city also achieved higher than average rental yields, once expenses were taken into account.

While the proportion of sales in regional centres going to Aucklander’s was relatively low, they were occurring in a market where the total number of sales were at the lowest point since 1995.

Nick Goodall said property title data revealed the proportion of sales going to Aucklanders in most popular regional areas was tracking well below the peak.

“Recently we haven’t seen any particular spike, so people who are looking to Aucklanders who are coming and influencing the market are probably jumping a bit ahead of the gun,” Goodall said.

“They are not really as active as they have been in the past, they may influence certain pockets of the market but certainly market wide they aren’t having any major influence.”

In Hamilton 5.2% of sales went to Auckland movers in the final quarter of last year, compared to 16.1% that occurred at the peak in the third quarter of 2015.

In Tauranga, another favourite spot for relocating Aucklanders, 5.4% of sales went to Auckland movers in the final quarter of last year, compared to 8.7% at the peak in the first quarter of 2016.

In Whangārei, Aucklanders made up 8.5% of purchases, compared to 11.4% in the third quarter of 2016.

Auckland investors showed similar trends in these cities, as well as other favourite spots, such as Queenstown and Napier.