Annual migration still running hot but signs of cooling

Wednesday, 12 July 2023

New Zealand gained almost 78,000 people thanks to migration in the year to May, although there are signs that the surge is tapering off.

Stats NZ migration data for the year ending May 2023 showed the number of migrant arrivals was the second-highest on record for an annual period, slightly behind the 184,900 in the March 2020 year.

Overall there were 181,100 migrant arrivals (up 213%), and 103,300 migrant departures (up 33%).

ASB senior economist Chris Tennent-Brown said net immigration inflows had cooled over the past two months, ending a strong run.

The May month saw a net permanent and long-term inflow of 4938 people, which was close to only a third of the upwardly-revised 14,434-person net inflow in March, he said.

“We expect the most likely trajectory is for net PLT inflows to continue to remain historically high over the next few months.”

Annual net PLT inflows were likely to peak at well under 100,000 persons by the end of the year, he said.

“We then expect the pace of inflows to subside, as the slowing economy reduces the allure of NZ as a migration destination and the backlog of people wishing to migrate to NZ abates.”

Tourism arrivals had also begun to cool off.

After peaking in December tourism arrivals took another fall in May taking levels (160k) to their lowest since October 2022.

“A good ski season, and sports events like the Women’s FIFA World Cup could provide a welcome boost to the winter arrivals,” Tennent-Brown said.