Stats NZ boss explains why this year's census survey could be the last

Thursday, 13 July 2023

Stats NZ chief executive Mark Sowden believes the census will have to change (video first published in July 2023).

Stats NZ chief executive Mark Sowden says the country could call time on the census in its current form and follow the example mapped out in Britain by relying on information it can get from other sources.

The 2023 Census, conducted at a record cost of about $320 million, may mark the second time in a row that Stats NZ has failed to achieve its target of getting at least 90% of people to participate in the census, although Sowden forecast it would be a close-run thing this time.

The disappointing response rate in the 2018 Census was partly attributed to an over-optimistic assessment by Stats NZ of how many people would be willing to complete the census online, and difficulties it then experienced sending out paper forms.

But Sowden said he was pleased with how Stats NZ had performed in the 2023 Census and there wasn’t much he thought it could have done to achieve a better outcome than the response rate it is currently estimating of between 89% and 91%.

Sowden said the response rate would be sufficient to do “really high quality population counts” for both the general population and the Māori and Pacific populations, when combined with other data it had access to.

But he voiced doubt over whether Stats NZ would ever be able to achieve a 90% response rate in future.

“That model of sending people out to knock on people's doors and asking them to fill in forms when they know that we've got a lot of that information I think has past its date.

“I certainly think whatever we do, will look different from what we've done this time.”

Stats NZ estimates 89% to 91% of people were recorded in the census, but it won’t know the exact number until it cleans up the data, for example by weeding out duplicate forms.

About 3000 people had told Stats NZ that they wouldn’t participate in the census because of a lack of trust in government, and the disruption caused by Cyclone Gabrielle had not helped.

Britain’s Office of National Statistics reported that 97% of Britons completed what now looks set be its final traditional census in 2021, which was ahead of its 94% target.

But Sowden said census response rates were dropping around the world and a bigger factor than mistrust in government might be that “people lead busy lives, are not always around, and doing things for the Government isn't necessarily a priority for them”.

There was a general level of fatigue with “people coming to your door and asking questions”, he said.

Participating in the census, though a legal requirement, had in effect become voluntary, Sowden appeared to acknowledge.

Only 47 people were ultimately convicted for not participating in the 2018 Census.

While Sowden said Stats NZ was still discussing its approach to enforcement this time round, he indicated it was again likely to focus any action on people who actively undermined the census by dissuading others from taking part, rather than merely ignoring it.

There were statistics that Stats NZ could struggle to produce without a comprehensive census survey, he agreed.

For example, this year the census quizzed respondents on their sexual identity and orientation.

But information could be gathered in other ways, he suggested.

“We survey 20,000 New Zealanders a year through the household labour force survey.

“The other thing is, can we get local communities collecting data for themselves? Could the Rainbow community collect data about the Rainbow community?”