2027 - Wellington's impending earthquake disaster movie

Thursday, 29 April 2021

The National Register lists earthquake-prone buildings.

It’s the title of a potential disaster movie, based in the heart of Wellington.

That’s the year hundreds of city properties, including about 40 apartment buildings, have to have their earthquake strengthening work completed.

But Wellington City Council building portfolio leader Iona Pannett believes a lot of them won’t make it.

* Wellington City Council considers loan scheme for earthquake-prone buildings

* Quake prone and leaky: Wellington apartment buildings sold and slated for demolition

Councillor Iona Pannett worries about having red, expired notices all over the city in 2027.

“My worry is about having red, expired notices all over the city in 2027,” she says.

Pannett blames the explosion in construction and engineering costs after legislation in 2004 compelled apartment owners to assess and fix earthquake-prone buildings, the lack of engineering expertise in a constrained market, and issues with the shifting sands of regulation in the wake of the Christchurch and Kaikōura quakes.

But the main reasons for the slow progress, according to Inner City Wellington’s Geraldine Murphy, have been the poor implementation of that legislation and the lack of support for apartment owners.

Many have been forced to take on multi-million dollar building projects they are not equipped to deal with, while each forking out many hundreds of thousands of dollars for the work.

And often while moving out for months or years at a time, at further cost.

Inner City Wellington’s Geraldine Murphy says the Government-backed loans come with a huge burden of debt.

Poto Williams, the Minister for Building and Construction, says there is support for owners in place, including Government-backed loans of up to $250,000 for each apartment owner.

But Murphy points out that is only available to those already turned down by the banks, that many apartment owners face repair bills at least twice that level, and the loan comes with interest rates and an extra margin of 1.25 per cent.

“It is still a huge burden of debt,” she says. “(We are) really resentful of it”.

Williams says the legislation and associated building codes have given owners some certainty about what they need to do to make their buildings safe.

But Murphy says the reality has been the opposite.

Construction and Building Minister Poto Williams says the issue of safety is paramount.

She points to a 2012 cost-benefit analysis by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE), which she claims greatly underestimated the costs of repair work but still concluded “the costs of the proposed [Earthquake Prone Building] policy substantially exceeded benefits”.

“The Government ignored that result as it made building owners responsible for the unlimited costs and risks of implementation for public safety,” she says.

Williams says “I really hear their [owners’] concerns, and it’s a dreadful position to find themselves in, however the issue of safety is paramount in this case … that we are moving in the right direction to ensure that buildings don’t fall down and hurt people.”

She plans to give MBIE “a hurry-along” on a review of its policy and rules for buildings, but Murphy claims it is already 14 months since it was promised and 2027 is fast approaching.

All of this has placed owners in “a cycle of uncertainty”.

That is not helped by a lack of assurances that legislation, building codes and the New Building Standard (NBS) won’t change again in future, changing the level of earthquake risk and requiring more possible repairs.

Apartment owners who have strengthened their buildings told The Dominion Post they were worried that this might happen again, despite spending hundreds of thousands of dollars.

“There’s going to be a new NBS, and I think that’s fine, you have to have one,” says Murphy, “but you can’t keep retrospectively applying that to existing buildings.”

Williams admits that “as information comes to us we will review it and feed that back into a process”.

That includes the National Seismic Hazard Model, which is due next year and could have a big influence on building regulation.

“But my assumption is that the [building] standards have been set and that’s my view … I don’t have an expectation that over the next 20 years, things will be different.”

But like so many apartment owners, Murphy remains deeply sceptical.

“They [owners] are not scared about their building, but what changing legislation can do to your life.”