Migration dries up: Record drop in numbers moving to NZ

Monday, 17 May 2021

Nearly 200 Air New Zealand Airbus A320 cabin crew were recently moved from fixed-term contracts to permanent employment agreements as the airline prepares for New Zealand’s border reopening.

New Zealand recorded its bigger ever drop in net migration in the year to March, Stats NZ data shows.

There were 6600 net migrant arrivals in the year, compared with 91,900 in the year to March 2020, a drop of 85,400.

There were 36,400 migrant arrivals in the year to 2021 and 29,800 departures.

“On an annual basis, these are the lowest numbers for migrant arrivals since 1986, and for migrant departures since 1969,” population indicators manager Tehseen Islam said.

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“However, we still have a net migration gain as migrant arrivals exceed migrant departures.”

A net gain of 15,500 New Zealand citizens was partly offset by a net loss of 8900 non-New Zealand citizens in the year ended March 2021.

“Historically, New Zealand has had an annual net migration loss of New Zealand citizens and an annual net migration gain of non-New Zealand citizens, but Covid-19-related travel and border restrictions have reversed this pattern,” Islam said.

“On an annual basis, migration estimates indicate a provisional net gain of New Zealand citizens since December 2019”.

The net gain in New Zealand citizens in the year ended March 2021 is mostly due to fewer New Zealand citizens departing overseas, relative to those arriving.

Economist Shamubeel Eaqub, of Sense Partners, said the impact of people not leaving the country would be widespread. Migrant arrivals tended to focus on the main centres, where job opportunities were concentrated, but people traditionally left from all over the country.

Provincial centres would be particularly boosted by the drop in departures.

The provisionally estimated 7800 migrant departures of New Zealand citizens in the year ended March 2021 was well below historical levels, which averaged 51,900 for March years 2002 to 2020.

There were 319,700 border crossings in the year ended March 2021, made up of 127,600 arrivals and 192,100 departures. In contrast, in the year ended March 2020 there were 13.6 million border crossings, made up of 6.8 million arrivals and 6.8 million departures.

Border crossings include all arrivals and departures, either for short-term trips or longer term, and by people living overseas or in New Zealand.

Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank, said the movement of people into New Zealand was being dictated by the capacity of MIQ.

What would matter was how much the situation changed over the next year, he said.

“Have we had our jabs, are we travelling a lot more, able to let more people in. The answer has to be yes but it’s the extent to which we can do that.”