Cheat sheet: Who is going to win Eurovision, the world's biggest song contest?
Tuesday, 7 May 2024
It’s that time of year again, when Europe (and Australia) battle it out in the world's biggest song contest.
It’s the 68th Eurovision and this year also marks the 50th anniversary of perhaps the most famous winners, Abba. Here’s a quick guide on who will win, who will come last, and who is the ‘marmite’ entry.
Refresh my memory, what’s this all about?
Essentially it’s a contest of songs that are no longer than three minutes long and representing countries in Europe and beyond (looking at you Australia). It was started in 1956 as a way of bringing countries together after WWII. Now it’s the biggest contest of its kind in the world.
Who’s competing this year?
There are 37 countries in total. Five-time winner Luxembourg is welcomed back into the fold after a 31-year absence.
37? That sounds like a bloody long night.
Well thankfully there are two semi-finals where the top 10 in each qualify to the final to join the ‘Big Five’ and the hosts.
Big Five?
The countries with deeper pockets who contribute most to the organisers, the European Broadcasting Union. The UK, Germany, Italy, Spain and France skip the semis and are automatically into the final.
So where is this year’s contest being held?
Appropriately on the 50th anniversary of Abba’s win, Sweden is the host after Loreen and her nails won it last year in Liverpool. It was her second win, and Sweden’s record-equalling seventh success. Malmö is the host city.
Who’s going to win?
There’s no real runaway favourite like Loreen last year but two countries have been the bookies’ choices. Croatia’s rock-dance-singalong mashup Rim Tim Tagi Dim (yes really) by the gloriously-monikered Baby Lasagna could net the Balkan country its first ever win. But the wild opera-rap-ballad-slight James Bond theme song, The Code from Nemo, could bring the trophy home to Switzerland.
Ukraine are in with a shout with a moody ballad (with added rap), as are perennial overachievers Italy. The dark horse is Ireland, aka the ‘marmite’ song, which has steadily been climbing the odds.
Marmite?
You will either love or hate Bambie Thug’s song, Doomsday Blue. Ireland, who dominated in the 1990s and have won seven times in total, have had a horrid run lately in trying to qualify from the semi-finals. They have completely gone for the non-safe option this year with a wild song involving witchcraft and a lot of screaming. As an Irishman myself, I adore this song. Others … are less enthused.
Who is coming last?
A lot is made of the UK’s underperforming entries, aside from Sam Ryder’s second place in 2022. They are safe from ignominy this year with what will be the most homoerotic staging ever seen at Eurovision from Olly Alexander.
But it’s another of the Big Five that really needs to up its game. Germany has finished 25th, 25th, 25th and 26th in the last four contests. I fear that run won’t be improved this year as its entrant, Isaak’s Always on the Run, is a perfectly nice but perfectly forgettable three minutes of music.
And how will our Tasman neighbours do?
Dance duo Electric Fields were chosen for the contest, and have a great little bop called One Milkali (One Blood), complete with didgeridoo and the first ever use of the Yankunytjatjara language in Eurovision.
But the song is on the bubble as to whether it will make it into the final.
Who’s bringing the quirk this year?
Finland, without a doubt, is nuts. There’s an egg, very little underwear and a thumping Euro beat. It will sink or swim. The Netherlands is one of the favourites, also with a big retro Euro dance sound and a unique look.
Isn’t there always controversy?
Well for something that was designed to bring people closer together, the contest sometimes has the opposite effect, whether it be strange voting patterns or friendly points given to near-neighbours.
The continuing conflict in Gaza means that Israel’s entry has been particularly in the spotlight this year. The song from Eden Golan had to have its lyrics changed as they were deemed too political. Now called Hurricane, in any other year it would be a shoo-in for a top five placing. This year, who knows?
Can Kiwis vote?
Well, yes we can. The contest is open to votes from around the world, not just the participating countries. Voting lines open 24 hours before the first semi-final.
OK, I am invested. When and where can I watch?
Both semi-finals and the final are streamed on YouTube. The semis are on Wednesday and Friday, both at 7am (NZT). The grand final is on Sunday morning at 7am.