What is the carbon footprint of international tourism in NZ?

Thursday, 4 April 2019

So many sustainable tourism strategies, so few mentions of the superjumbo Dumbo in the room.

In the rush for tourism businesses to chalk up sustainability cred by restoring wetlands or zipping about in electric vehicles, the fact tourists must fly thousands of kilometres to get here – chewing through millions of tonnes of climate-warming carbon dioxide as they go – seems quietly forgotten.

For all the promises to transition to a low-carbon economy, the greenhouse gases created by New Zealand's international tourism explosion threaten to undo any good work reducing the country's carbon footprint.

Research published in Nature Climate Change last year found that, between 2009 and 2013, tourism's global carbon footprint increased from 3.9 to 4.5 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent gases – four times more than previously thought. That means it accounts for about 8 per cent of all global greenhouse gas emissions.

* We study the climate - we chose not to fly to a conference on it

Flying is New Zealand tourism's elephant in the room.

* Tourism (and tourists) are a lot dirtier than we first thought**

'Due to its high carbon intensity and continuing growth, tourism will constitute a growing part of the world's greenhouse gas emissions,' the authors predicted. 'In particular transport, a key ingredient of travel, is an energy and carbon-intensive commodity, rendering tourism a potentially potent contributor to climate change.'

Flying alone makes up more than 2 per cent of global CO₂ emissions – if it were a country it would be among the world's top 10 emitters.

As an island nation, New Zealand is particularly vulnerable, a fact highlighted by the government's draft Tourism Strategy, released in November 2018.

'The most obvious source of a potentially longer-term reduction in tourism growth is climate change,' the authors noted. 'The global move towards reducing carbon emissions, and New Zealand's focus on transitioning to a low-emissions economy, is likely to have a significant and long-term impact on New Zealand's tourism industry.'

But because international flight emissions are not included in Kyoto Protocol calculations, the numbers are hard to pin down. There's no internationally agreed method, but several researchers have had a go.

Griffith University's Sustainable Tourism Dashboard ranks New Zealand's CO₂ emissions per person as 34th highest out of 291 destinations, just above Australia. Most places with higher emissions are tiny island tourism meccas such as the Seychelles, and aviation hubs such as Singapore and United Arab Emirates. However, that method includes both domestic and international travel, only accounts for flights leaving New Zealand, and includes travel by Kiwis heading overseas.

The best guess of the climate cost of international tourism to New Zealand is by physicists at Otago University. In 2008 Inga Smith and Craig Rodger estimated international tourists flying here created about 4.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions.

Sustainable tourism professor Susanne Becken says sustainable international tourism is an oxymoron

Smith, Rodger and student Anna Tarr have just updated those numbers. Between 2005 and 2017, international visitor numbers surged by 56 per cent.

Taking into account a drop in European tourists in favour of travellers from closer countries such as China, South Korea and Australia, they estimate tourism-related emissions will have soared by up to 42 per cent. The researchers have yet to assess the impact of more efficient planes, which is likely to moderate the emissions increase.

The research showed the distance travelled by Kiwis flying overseas also ballooned, by 78 per cent.

And the tourism explosion shows no signs of slowing.

'It doesn't matter how you cut the pie, we obviously are quite exposed to aviation emissions,' says Griffith University professor of sustainable tourism Susanne Becken, who developed the Sustainable Tourism Dashboard. 'The reality is that in New Zealand we are far away, people travel long distances.'

Sustainable international tourism is, she says, an oxymoron. While there's currently no shortage of people wanting to come to New Zealand, consumer awareness of the environmental cost of flying is increasing, and that's a risk for New Zealand's tourism industry.

At present, their only guilt-reduction option is carbon offsetting, but she's critical of that as 'it doesn't really reduce emissions, it's just shifting them from one side to the other'.

If flying were a country, it would be among the world's top 10 emitters.

'I think it's something one should do, but one should not kid oneself and say 'OK, now it doesn't matter any more.''

She still flies to speak at conferences, but tries to combine multiple purposes. She only flies to Europe for at least three things.

However, tourism can have environmental benefits, such as providing motivation to fight wildlife poaching in Africa, so she's wary of decrying international tourism altogether. It can also be the better of two bad options.

'You're trading some carbon footprint with some other benefit. We see that in Australia, where the mining industry is reducing and tourism is increasing … In New Zealand, you could say 'OK, do we invest in dairy or do we invest in tourism? Which one is better?' '

Tourism Holdings is trialling electric campervans, but the 120km range is proving challenging.

She thinks New Zealand should invest more effort in domestic tourism, which could be developed sustainably, with electric vehicles and solar-driven boats.

Tourism Industry Association chief executive Chris Roberts does not accept that international tourism is unsustainable.

THL has been working to increase charging stations to improve the range of its new electric campervan.

'A well-connected world is a safer world. You stop airlines flying and the world economy grinds to a halt. We are never going to shut the door and stop people coming.'

If New Zealand ended international tourism, half the country's tourism businesses would disappear, with the loss of about 150,000 jobs, Roberts estimates.

Tourism-related emissions have been talked about for a decade and there's no evidence it's putting travellers off. Quite the contrary – New Zealand tourism is booming. That's unlikely to change, as the burgeoning middle classes in developing countries spawn millions of potential first-time international tourists. However, Roberts does expect growth to slow.

If people were increasingly worried about their flying emissions, you would expect more tourists to take up airline carbon offset options, Roberts says. (While the number of Air New Zealand passengers choosing to offset their emissions has grown from 40,000 to 130,000 in a year, it remains only a fraction of all travellers.)

However, Kiwi tourism operators do need to reduce emissions once international travellers get here, as customers will start asking how businesses are reducing their carbon footprint, Roberts says.

'Visitors will increasingly want to see the businesses they interact with behaving sustainably.'

Research suggests the emissions of the average cruise passenger are similar to a return flight from Tokyo to London.

The government could help speed that process by subsidising low-carbon options such as electric vehicles and penalising high emitters, Roberts says.

Campervan company Tourism Holdings, which owns the Britz and Maui brands, trialled electric campervans for the first time this summer. It has five two-berth, self-contained motorhomes in Auckland and Queenstown, with 10-day itineraries built around having chargers every 50-100km. The Auckland itinerary takes in the Coromandel and Raglan, while the Queenstown trip heads to Dunedin.

The vans have electric cooking and heating, so have to be parked at a campground power source.

The company's general manager of responsible management, Saskia Verraes, says as long as planes burn jet fuel, international tourism can never be environmentally sustainable.

Emissions from international tourists to New Zealand have increased by 42 per cent since 2009.

'I think everybody knows that and struggles with it. The thing we can do is at least when people get here to try and have a zero footprint whilst they're here.'

Verraes says only tens of people have so far booked the vans. The 120km battery range is a barrier, as most campervanners travel about 200km a day. However, she expects battery range to improve to about 160km within 12 months.

People suffer 'range anxiety' as they watch the battery drain going uphill (it recharges on the downhill). However, they have more grunt uphill than the diesel equivalent.

The company has a target of 5 per cent of its global fleet being low-emission by 2020.

It's not just flying and driving that contribute to the carbon cost of New Zealand's tourism industry. The growth in mega-ships cruising our coastline has vastly outstripped growth in airline arrivals. Cruisers have more than trebled from 100,000 in 2010 to 349,000 in 2018.

Since having baby Brooke Scarborough (now 11 months), Lauren McLean has decided she will no longer fly as she worries about the future of the planet.

Based on 2018 numbers, if cruising were a country it would be the third largest source of international arrivals, after China. The Global Tourism Dashboard estimates the average cruise passenger's emissions are equivalent to a return flight from London to Tokyo.

The industry has brought in new regulations to reduce CO₂ emissions by new ships by 30 per cent by 2025. Some companies are switching to LNG fuels, which produce 20-25 per cent less CO₂, however those ships are unlikely to visit New Zealand.

New Zealand Cruise Association chief executive Kevin O'Sullivan questions whether the 30 per cent reduction target is achievable. While growth will continue, sustainability should improve with fewer, larger ships, he says.

'Sustainability doesn't mean to say you cut it off. It means you change things or modify them. It doesn't mean that you stop all growth, because it's not the way of our society. Generally growth is a good thing.'

Wellington environmental lawyer Tom Bennion gave up flying in 2009, to signal climate change had reached crisis point.

NO FLY ZONE

Her whole life, Lauren McLean has been waiting to see New Zealand play in Melbourne's famed Boxing Day cricket test match.

'That's been the sports trip I have wanted to go to, forever.'

But when the Black Caps walk out on to the MCG in December, she won't be in the stands.

The reason is a watery gurgle in the paddling pool in the background. Before getting pregnant, the Hamilton 33-year-old asked a climate scientist if she should even have children. Now, she's worried about her 11-month-old daughter Brooke's future.

'I can't look at her in the future and go 'I travelled for such a frivolous reason'.'

McLean is one of a small but growing number of Kiwis choosing not to fly. A Fly-less Kiwis Facebook group set up in December 2018 has 73 members.

Her decision has caused family tensions – her partner's family live in Britain and he wants them to meet their granddaughter, and she's unhappy about her mother's retirement travel plans.

McLean did an OE when she was younger and used to fly as a retail buyer. While her daughter might miss out on the joys of travel, 'if she's dealing with famine, if she's dealing with conflict, not being able to fly is going to be the least of her worries'.

McLean wants carbon offsets made mandatory for flying, and thinks it should eventually be banned for everything but emergencies and government business.

'I really think that if all parents understood what I understood, they wouldn't be flying. I see Flight Centre and Air NZ ads pop up on my Twitter and it breaks my heart. My little girl is going to be 12 when we find out whether we've prevented catastrophic climate change … As a parent, people agonise over what's best for their child – what school do I put them in, what should I feed them, have I educated them right. But unless there's a stable climate for them, none of that is worth anything.'

Wellington environmental lawyer Tom Bennion gave up flying in 2009, when his three children were all under-5. It was a public way of signalling he believed climate change had reached crisis levels.

In the decade since he's taken four flights, all for family emergencies. Otherwise, he's taken the long road – for work and pleasure.

If he's needed in Auckland, he'll take an overnight bus at 7pm the previous day, armed with blackout eye mask, neck pillow, extra pillow, and warm cover-up.

For Waitangi Tribunal hearings – which are often in remote spots – he combines buses, hybrid cars and electric car share schemes. He declines work in Northland as it's not logistically feasible. Christchurch is 'crippling' – ferry then train. The biggest cost is lost time with his wife and kids.

The family have an electric Nissan leaf, which they've driven as far as Hamilton and Gisborne with the kids, now aged 14, 12 and 9. The kids are not strictly no-fly, but have flown 'a truckload less' than others in their demographic, Bennion says.

He doesn't evangelise as that would be socially too perilous. 'It's very hard. Other parents from school are going to Australia … Who is going to say to the parents of the friends of your kids – 'What are you doing?' '

Instead, Bennion hopes his stance will be the grain of sand in people's minds, expanding to a pearl that becomes so irritating it can no longer be ignored.

He reckons flying should come with a carbon price, and businesses should reduce flying to mindless meetings. And bring back overnight trains from Wellington to Auckland.

'I don't actually miss anything. I have been overseas. I kind of think New Zealand is pretty freakily awesome. It's incredible. The climate crisis – more and more people are going to see this. It's nice to think you did something and to look back and go – that was the right thing to do.'