Greenhouse gas emissions have barely budged in a decade, new data shows

Thursday, 27 June 2019

A new report shows that NZ households are responsible for more climate change emissions than ever before.

New Zealand's greenhouse gas emissions have flat-lined over the last decade, with households bucking a worldwide trend by steadily increasing their impact on the climate.

The data, released by the government as part of its annual environmental-economic accounting, is the first such release following the introduction of the Zero Carbon Bill, intended to be the starting point for a transition to a low-emissions economy.

The figures show how difficult that transition could be.

Total national emissions decreased 0.9 per cent between 2007 and 2017 (the most recent data available). The decrease was largely driven by the electricity and gas sector, reflecting growth in renewable energy generation.

* Sheep and beef farmers aim to be carbon neutral by 2050

* NZ's total greenhouse gas emissions

* New government accounts show value of NZ environment, and human impact**

The data suggests particular struggles for two sectors: agriculture and households.

Farming emissions barely moved over a 10 year span, and despite modest reductions in emissions on sheep, beef, deer and poultry farms, they were entirely offset by growth in dairy farming, which had the biggest emissions increase of any single industry.

The dairy industry is now responsible for more emissions than the manufacturing and electricity and gas supply industries combined, rising 27 per cent over a decade.

The agriculture industry as a whole comprises half of all emissions, but contributes less than 7 per cent of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the data shows. Its GDP is growing faster than its emissions, however, meaning it is becoming more efficient.

Its annual emissions reduced by an average of less than 0.1 per cent per year, which would need to be scaled up manyfold to meet new targets set under the Zero Carbon Act.

The other stand-out figure was rising household emissions.

Those emissions grew nearly 20 per cent over a decade, and not only were they growing, they were becoming less efficient - emissions rose at a rate higher than the number of new households forming.

Household emissions now comprise 11 per cent of all emissions (compared to 89 per cent from industries), an increase from 9 per cent in 2007.

Traffic in Petone. Increasing household emissions were largely a consequence of vehicle use.

New Zealand was one of a handful of developed nations where household emissions were increasing. Besides Australia, the others were all Eastern European nations.

Another major issue was New Zealand's 'emissions intensity', a measure which shows how many emissions are produced per million dollars of GDP.

New Zealand performs relatively poorly on this measure relative to comparable countries, in large part due to agriculture's disproportionate effect on total emissions.

'While our overall emissions intensity has been trending down, the amount of emissions we produce for each million dollars of GDP is in the top third of developed nations, due to the significant amount of methane emitted by agriculture,' said Statistic NZ's collaborative development manager, Michele Lloyd.

New Zealand ranked 11th out of 31 comparable countries on this measure: That, too, puts New Zealand alongside mostly former Soviet-bloc nations.

The data showed while many countries were starting to reduce their emissions, New Zealand was not. Emissions rose 2.3 per cent between 2016-17, entirely offsetting a 2.3 per cent reduction the previous year.

'All-in-all, this is not good news,' said Dr Ivan Diaz-Rainey, an associate professor at the University of Otago.

'We still have a very high greenhouse gas intensity compared to other industrialised countries and have performed poorly relative to countries like Denmark that have managed large cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.'

Dairy farming had the largest increase in emissions of any single industry.

The decline in electricity and gas, likely due to an increase in wind and geothermal power generation, was good news, he said.

The growth in transport emissions and the failure to budge agriculture emissions were concerning, Massey University Emeritus Professor Ralph Sims said.

'It is deeply concerning that New Zealand has not been able to 'bend the curve downwards' in that our annual greenhouse gas emissions keep rising,' he said.

'Overall we have a major problem to resolve rapidly.'

Technological innovations to reduce agricultural emissions were likely still decades away, he said, and government intervention to encourage low-emissions vehicles was 'long overdue'.

Climate change minister James Shaw said the figures showed emission reductions were needed across the economy, including among individual households.

Reducing those household emissions would require more clean public transport options and more efficient private vehicles, both of which the government was working towards addressing, he said.

'Our transport emissions are the fastest growing part of our emissions profile. It's really where we need to focus our energy,' he said.

'We tend to drive around in second-hand cars, we don't have any emissions standards, and we have not yet had a comprehensive programme for trying to renew the fleet towards lower-emission vehicles.'

The environmental accounts are produced under the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) method, used by many countries internationally to link environment and economic data.

* Correction: The Zero Carbon Bill has been introduced to Parliament but has not become law, as a previous version of this story said.