Zero Carbon Bill: Why the next decade is crucial for a safe climate

Thursday, 4 July 2019

The government's plan to tackle climate change has been revealed in the Zero Carbon Bill. Minister for Climate Change, James Shaw, talks to Corin Dann.

OPINION: Last year the world's leading climate scientists warned that we only have 12 years left to limit global warming to 1.5C. Going beyond this threshold will heighten the catastrophic risk of droughts, storms, and sea level rise for billions of people.

But the Zero Carbon Bill, as it is currently drafted, does not reflect the urgency of the climate crisis, nor the benefits of taking immediate action.

To have a reasonable chance of staying below 1.5C, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) found that global carbon emissions must reduce 45 per cent by 2030 (40 per cent-60 per cent range), and then fall to net zero by 2050 at the very latest.

In other words, there is no time to wait. We need to halve our carbon emissions by the end of the next decade.

* Climate Change action: How NZ's 'insufficient' targets stack up against other countries

* Climate change bill is a step in the right direction**

Long-lived greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide accumulate in the atmosphere and trap heat for hundreds of years into the future. This is why New Zealand only has a finite amount of carbon that can be emitted before we 'blow the budget' for 1.5C.

While establishing a net zero target date is important, what's even more important is minimising the total emissions released between now and then.

This graph (below) highlights the point.

The black scenario, based on a net zero 2050 target, is consistent with a 1.5C budget because New Zealand's carbon emissions are tackled immediately. The grey scenario, despite achieving net zero by 2040, blows the budget because carbon emissions are allowed to rise until the mid-2020s. This results in total carbon emissions, which are inconsistent with 1.5C.

Problematically, Climate Change Minister James Shaw has confirmed that New Zealand's emissions are due to continue rising until the mid-2020s. If this is allowed to happen, we risk blowing our 1.5C budget before the journey to net zero has really begun.

There are powerful reasons to pursue immediate emission reductions, such as rapidly decarbonising the transport sector by embracing public transit to help improve air quality.

'The next few years are probably the most important in our history,' says Dr Debra Roberts, Co-Chair of the IPCC Working Group on climate impacts.

If we're serious about giving ourselves the best chance at a safe future, the Zero Carbon Bill must be strengthened to ensure that New Zealand acts immediately and halves its net carbon emissions by 2030.

There are powerful reasons to pursue immediate emission reductions. For example, rapidly decarbonising the transport sector by embracing public and active transit will help to improve air quality and health outcomes. A focus on energy efficiency and building standards will lower energy inputs and result in warmer homes. And shifting away from fossil fuels will reduce our reliance on imported oil.

The Productivity Commission made a key finding last year that any delays to New Zealand's low emission transition will increase the overall cost and difficulty of the transition.

It's also important to realise that New Zealand is not acting alone. Under the Paris Agreement, the world has agreed to a net zero emissions future. Norway, Finland and Sweden have set net zero targets for 2030, 2035 and 2045 respectively, while the UK and New York have just committed to net zero by 2050. China is rolling out the equivalent of a soccer-field of solar panels every hour, and has more electric vehicles than the rest of the world combined.

Assuming we act sooner rather than later, New Zealand's low carbon innovation and renewables expertise will be in hot demand around the world. If we sit on our hands, we risk being left behind.

The Zero Carbon Bill will be the cornerstone of New Zealand's low emission transition. Establishing a robust policy framework, a long-term net zero target, and an independent Climate Commission is very important. As is acknowledging that we are facing a 'climate emergency'.

But in order to ensure that New Zealand plays its part in limiting global warming to 1.5C, the Zero Carbon Bill needs to drive immediate, transformative change. The next decade is the most crucial part of the journey.

The Zero Carbon Bill must reflect the importance of immediate action by requiring that New Zealand halves its net carbon emissions by 2030.

Public submissions on the Zero Carbon Bill close on July 16, 2019.

James Young-Drew is a policy lead for Generation Zero, a youth-led climate change advocacy group campaigning for an effective, non-partisan Zero Carbon Act. Young-Drew has a Masters in Climate Change Science and Policy.