Why do a worrying number of us not know what to do before tsunami waves arrive?

Wednesday, 6 November 2019

Norman and Linda Wilkins have an emergency kit by their door and keep torches by their bed.

Nearly all of us understand the danger posed by tsunami, but about a quarter of us don't know what to do while the first wave is making its way to land.

This is a fact pointed to time and again in surveys by the likes of the Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management, GNS Science and the Wellington Regional Emergency Management Office.

A GNS study on tsunami awareness and preparedness in 10 selected coastal areas of Wellington, Wairarapa, Hawke's Bay and Gisborne revealed that while 71 per cent of the 875 respondents rated tsunami as the most likely natural hazard to affect their community, 26 per cent said they were unlikely to evacuate their property if a severe earthquake struck.

This is a figure that concerns people like GNS senior scientist Graham Leonard, who said it showed there was still confusion about what warnings people should respond to.

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Maximum water surface elevation for the 8.9 Hikurangi earthquake scenario.The colour scale is limited so that water heights above 5m appear as 5m1

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'The survey also showed that up to a third of people don't intend to evacuate quickly enough. They know the long and strong get gone message, but if they hesitate, it means it's not effective. Most people intend to use their cars to evacuate. But in the fastest tsunami we need people evacuating by foot or bike due to the short timeframe they have,' he said.

Maximum height of water above ground level in Wellington for the scenario.

Just 7.3 per cent of people said they would start evacuating in under a minute, 54.6 per cent within 1-10 minutes and 25.9 per cent within 10-30 minutes.

'We need 100 per cent of the New Zealand public to know that in a long or strong earthquake they need to evacuate immediately. Every minute and every metre inland counts,' he said.

Leonard said the survey was carried out in 2015, but a survey in Wellington following the Kaikōura earthquake in November 2016 showed it was still accurate, with about a third of people choosing not to evacuate.

'We've really pushed the 'Long or Strong Get Gone' in the last three years and we're planning a re-run of the survey so it will be interesting to know if the 'intend to evacuate' number is higher,' Leonard said.

The Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management's latest annual disaster preparedness survey, released last month, raised a similar discrepancy.

Video animation showing a simulation of how people might evacuate to higher ground from Petone following a strong earthquake.

It showed that while 85 per cent of people knew they need to 'Get Gone' if they are near the coast when a long or strong quake strikes, 23 per cent believed they were unlikely to ever be in a disaster and so were not prepared.

Director of Civil Defence Emergency Management Sarah Stuart-Black said that optimism was one of three barriers to people getting prepared, along with a lack of information and the perception that it was too much effort.

'Rather than just talking about hazards like earthquakes and tsunami in general, we encourage people to consider what an emergency might mean for them, such as having no power, no water, needing to evacuate, or not being able to get home,' she said.

Maximum height of water above ground level in Napier for the scenario.

A survey of 500 Wellington residents in June showed that just 50 per cent of people knew a strong earthquake was itself the warning to evacuate. Forty per cent of people expected sirens; others expected text alerts or radio announcements.

Wellington Region Emergency Management Office manager of community resilience and recovery Dan Neely said the survey showed that much more had to be done to to increase awareness around this.

'With tsunami awareness we've certainly made some big inroads over the years with things like the tsunami blue line. How we help people translate that to 'Long and Strong Get Gone', that's an area we need to emphasise further,' he said

Francoise Lafferty-Hancock plans to update her emergency pack for situations like a tsunami with things like nappies for her son, Ephraim.

'People expect sirens or text alerts. There's a human nature to wait for some sort of guidance.'

Neely said the organisation would be undertaking a major campaign next year informing residents that they should not wait for a warning following a strong earthquake, and that they should practice their evacuation.

PREPARED IN PETONE

Francoise Lafferty-Hancock moved into her Petone home in 2006 and while it was not the best place to live if a tsunami hit, she has no plans to leave.

'It's not the best place to be if that happens but anything could happen at anytime,' Lafferty-Hancock said.

'I don't want to live in fear and I really like it here.'

Her family had an emergency pack but since the birth of her son, Ephraim, it needed to be updated, she said.

The family also had two pet budgies, Bonbon and Monet, and kept an emergency carry case for them.

Their evacuation plan was to go up to Maungaraki and if they could not take their birds with them, they would try to set them free to give them a chance, she said.

One street over, couple Linda and Norman Wilkins have seriously thought about what they would do if a tsunami came their way.

Wilkins said the main thing for the pair was to go inland as quickly as they could.

If they were not together, the pair planned to meet somewhere in the valley.

'The Kaikōura earthquake was good for us - it made us think a lot more and taught us we need to be decisive,' she said.

Her husband said they had a bag sitting near the front door which had a battery back-up pack for cellphones, a radio and a first-aid kit as well as some muesli bars.

'It's a case of speed - we have torches by our bed and we've got shoes and clothes handy,' he said.

'The important thing is to have a plan and enact it quickly.'