Buyers and sellers push ahead as fuel storm looms over property market

Sunday, 19 April 2026

Wellingtonian Jake Turner plans in place to put his house on the market and the fuel crisis has not deterred him.

“We’re carrying on, carrying on. We’ve come too far making plans to put it off. Obviously the fuel crisis means there are more issues to think about - like what interest rates will do, and even a factor in the location of where we’ll move to.

We were always going to stay in Lower Hutt, and being nearer good schools was always going to be important.”

Turner, a trades foreman and his wife who works in finance, have lived in their Naenae property for eight years, but since having their first child, they want a bigger house, which means putting their current home on the market.

The fuel crisis has made them focus even more on potential changes in interest rates.

“We’ve already started looking what we might like to buy, and got finance in place for what will be the biggest purchase of our lives. Given the fuel crisis we’re already factoring in what may happen if interest rates go up and how that could cost us in various scenarios.”

The fuel crisis hasn’t stalled Gisborne artist Erin Rauna’s plans either.

“If anything, it’s made me more determined to hang on to my assets for the future. I’ve already seen first hand how hard it is for young people to get their first home, and it’s always on my mind in the future, for my children.”

Rauna and her family had already planned to move house and she’s had an offer accepted on a home, but now she’s going to keep her current house too.

The decision whether to sell the house they’re currently in, or keep it and rent it out was crystallised by the fuel crisis, she said.

“Now, more than ever I want to hold on tight to what will be one day houses for my children. In times of uncertainty, you need to plan for the future.”

Cotality NZ Chief Property Economist, Kelvin Davidson, said the Iran conflict was throwing “an extra layer of uncertainty over everything”, in a market where green shoots were beginning to emerge.

March’s subtle rise in property values at the national level would pique the interest of those looking for early signs of a market upturn, but he also noted that uncertainty remains high.

“The increases in national values in the past two months clearly remain small and have only made a minor difference to the drop from early 2022’s peak.”

“In the property market, values were already still proving slow to respond to the falls in mortgage rates since mid-2024 and the nascent economic recovery.”

“The missing piece has probably been a confidence factor, and now, in light of the latest conflict and sharply higher fuel prices, it’s difficult to see housing sentiment or property values lifting sharply in the near term.”

“Both the economy and housing market still face a testing period ahead.”

The housing market tracked sideways in March, with no clear direction in sales, prices, or the stock of properties for sale, Infometrics chief forecaster, Gareth Kiernan, said.

“Given that REINZ’s data is based on sales going unconditional, it is likely that this holding pattern largely reflects economic conditions prior to the Iran War, when the economy’s patchy recovery had yet to really gain more widespread momentum.”

Uncertainty coupled with the conflict’s dampening effect on anticipated economic recovery are likely to weigh on the housing market in coming months, he said.

“We anticipate that sharply higher fuel costs could start to weaken buyer activity over the next couple of months, as buyers adjust their budgets to increased transport costs and the potential for higher mortgage rates going forward. However, with interest rates looking increasingly likely to rise, we could also see more buyers purchasing during autumn and locking in lower fixed mortgage rates before the Reserve Bank starts to tighten monetary conditions.“

Brock Shute, director and senior mortgage adviser at The Mortgage Advice Company, said consumer confidence numbers are only just starting to filter through, “with the realisation that this war might drag on”.

“You could be in the camp that it's all going to blow over, hopefully sooner rather than later, or you could be in the camp that it could continue and it could turn bad pretty quickly and return to stagflation days of the late 70s, early 80s, which were driven on high oil prices as well.”

Clients want more certainty about repayments, he said.

“Now we’re having those conversations right at the start how to give them some long term certainty and spread.

You might be looking to fix a small portion for 12 months, a bigger portion for two years, and then another portion for three years just to buy some time to get through what I think many people think will be a bit of an uncertain period.

Nathan Miglani, managing adviser for Squirrel in Christchurch and the South Island, says the fuel crisis may make some sellers wait for more global and economic certainty.

“I have a client with a property in Halswell valued around $840,000 to $880,000. They’re looking to sell and move into a larger home in Cashmere. They’re ready to act, but are waiting for things to feel a little more stable before launching to the market.“

If someone is not in a hurry to sell, waiting until spring can be a reasonable option, he says

“It depends on the individual situation. If a seller can achieve a good price now and it allows them to move forward with their next step, there’s still a strong case to act.”

Claire Williamson, director at My Mortgage in the Waikato/Hamilton region, said banks are already changing products - such as prioritising certain terms, and changing serviceability assessments.

“There are more discussions about mortgage structures if people want more certainty, and know what they will be paying.”

Real estate agent Renaye Huia has more than 560 listings in Lower Hutt, and 300 in Upper Hutt, “which is quite a lot at this this time of year.”

Many sellers are downsizing, leaving the area, or want to move closer to work.

“They don’t want a big lawn any more - especially in a fuel crisis, they tell me, just give me a yard. And I am definitely talking to those with a big commute who are rethinking locations.”

Others are selling to reduce debt and lately she is seeing more putting their house on the market because they are moving to Australia.

“They are saying sell the house, we’re not coming back.”