From brain drain to brain gain? Aussie investor predicts talent exodus to NZ after tax changes

Saturday, 20 June 2026

Ed Carlson believes New Zealand’s economy will benefit from an influx of young, wealthy Aussies annoyed by domestic tax changes.

Aussie investment firm boss Ed Carlson says tax changes across the Tasman could prompt an exodus of talent - and money - to New Zealand.

Carlson has bought a multimillion-dollar house in Queenstown, where the property market is experiencing a big surge in interest from Australians.

One do-up sold for more than $2.2m after a five-day bidding war.

The head of an Aussie investment firm is forecasting a flow of wealthy talent across the Tasman to New Zealand, in the wake of tax changes in his homeland.

Former Google executive Ed Carlson recently bought a multimillion-dollar house in Kelvin Heights, Queenstown.

Originally from Adelaide, Carlson now runs Troubridge Capital, a private fund that focuses on growing small to medium-sized businesses on both sides of the Ditch.

He started his career at Google. He was based in Sydney but spent much of his working life travelling around New Zealand.

The Australian Government announced changes to its capital gains tax in its May Budget.

Email the reporter: annemarie.quill@stuffdigital.co.nz

“With the friends and whānau we’ve made along the way, we’ve always felt at home in New Zealand. It’s hard not to love such an amazing place.”

While lifestyle played a major role in his decision to buy a second property in Queenstown, Carlson believes New Zealand is poised to benefit from an exodus of ambitious Australians unsettled by tax changes at home.

The Australian Government announced significant changes to its capital gains tax in May’s Budget, including making assets bought before 1985 subject to the tax for the first time.

Carlson is critical of the new rules, arguing they send the wrong signal to younger entrepreneurs, business owners and families.

“Regardless of the side of politics you sit on, Australia’s 2026 budget sent a loud and clear signal to young Aussie job creators and innovators: ‘Don’t take risks here.’”

NZ a home for top ‘creators’

Carlson believes the changes are already having an impact. He says that in recent weeks he’s become aware of builders, manufacturers, tech company founders and professional service firms discussing moving parts of their operations offshore.

Some are eyeing New Zealand, while others are looking towards Singapore and the United States, he says.

Queenstown’s property market remains bulletproof, at odds with much of the rest of New Zealand.

Carlson believes New Zealand could emerge as one of the biggest winners particularly from younger Australians seeking opportunities rather than established wealth holders.

That would be a counterpoint to the so-called Brain Drain that sees so many Kiwis leave for Australia.

“I don’t believe it’s the ‘cashed up’ that’ll come over,” he says. “Many of them already have, and there are far better tax havens [than New Zealand]. I think it’ll be young people looking to create, take risks and build things.”

In Carlson’s view, New Zealand’s appeal lies in the message it sends to aspiring business owners and families.

He says the country encourages ambitious tradies, manufacturers, professionals and entrepreneurs to “come take risks, create, employ and innovate” while offering the stability needed to build businesses for the long-term.

The influx of people and cash will benefit the local economy.

“New Zealand already has some of the world’s best creators and that number will only continue to rise.”

The rise of remote work, AI-driven technology and increasingly borderless business models has only strengthened New Zealand’s appeal, he says.

A “renovator’s dream” in Queenstown sold to Australians for more than $2.2m after a five-day bidding war.

“The mobility of work and business has never been higher.”

The $2.26m house in Kelvin Heights has sweeping views of Lake Wakatipu and the ranges beyond.

For Carlson, the combination of proximity to Australia, lifestyle advantages and what he sees as stable policy settings has made New Zealand a destination of choice.

Bidding war for high-end do-up

There has already been a sharp rise in interest in Queenstown property from Australians.

Simplicity managing director Sam Stubbs says a new development of 1078 homes in Queenstown will provide affordable housing options.

This week Stuff reported that Hamish Walker, director of Queenstown-based real estate agency Walker&Co, had seen a sharp increase in inquiries from prospective buyers with budgets north of $3m.

And NZ Sotheby's International Realty managing director Mark Harris told Stuff that, year-on-year, Australian inquiries were up 90%, and lifted sharply after the tax announcement.

A 1950s house touted as “a renovator’s dream” recently sold to Australian buyers after seven offers, going for a price Walker said was “beyond expectations”.

Despite needing major work, the property - near Carlson’s in Kelvin Heights - sparked a five-day bidding war and went for $2.26m.

“Last week I sold another house in the same suburb to an Australian buyer, and that had three offers,” Walker said.

“Last year I sold 45 properties, including four to Australians. This year already I have sold 24 properties, and half of those have been to Australians… with a sale price averaging around $2.8m.”

Unlike buyers from the US, UK or China, Australian buyers are treated the same as local residents under New Zealand’s overseas investment rules.

‘Great for tourists, bad for locals’

The increased interest from Australians is among the reasons the property market in and around Queenstown remains bulletproof, certainly compared to most of the rest of New Zealand.

Queenstown recently became the first place in New Zealand with an average asking price of $1.6m, according to Trade Me Property, and has a median value of $2.25m according to Cotality.

Economic consultancy Infometrics found that, in the Queenstown-Lakes District Council area, the mean average house value is 11.4 times its mean average household income. That compared to 5.9 times nationally.

An increase in demand from Australians at the top end will not necessarily have a ripple effect across the whole market, says Cotality chief property economist Kelvin Davidson.

“In theory, at the margins, more cash and demand will tend to trickle down. But I doubt that top-end foreign buyers would really make much difference to prices for entry-level first home buyers - they’re just different segments.”

But Simplicity managing director Sam Stubbs says the affordability gap exists because local wages are competing against a housing market driven by outside wealth.

He also says there is also a shortage of affordable rentals in the region - hence Simplicity Living’s development of more than 1000 build-to-rent homes in Queenstown.

“They're not Jafa ski houses, they're not holiday homes, they are for locals. What’s been happening down there is a lot of people have been taking their rental properties off the market and sticking them on Airbnb. 28% of houses in Queenstown are empty. Great for tourists but bad for locals.”