Where house prices are still rising, as many suburbs fall

Thursday, 13 June 2024

Property values are falling across many suburbs, with some recording an almost 10% decline in the last three months.

But one South Island suburb is bucking the trend.

Herne Bay remains Auckland’s most expensive suburb, with an average value of $3.41 million.

Property values are falling across a growing number of suburbs, but some continue to buck the trend.

In one South Island suburb, average values rose by almost 17% in the last year, data shows.

CoreLogic chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said momentum had slowed in both affluent and more affordable markets over the last three months.

At the higher end, values in Takapuna in Auckland, and Onemana and Tairua in Thames-Coromandel, dropped by 5% to 6%.

“Suburbs within more affordable price points, like Fordlands in Rotorua and Mataura in Gore District, saw values fall by 7% to 9%,” Davidson said.

By contrast, 253 suburbs saw gains of at least 1% in the past three months, with eight up by at least 5% since March.

Davidson said West Coast was home to some of the suburbs with the largest value gains recently.

Over the last 12 months, Cobden and Runanga, both in Grey District, were the top two suburbs for growth, at 16.9% and 13.1% respectively, with median values around $300,000.

So, how are values tracking in your area? These are the most and least affordable suburbs in the main centres:

Auckland

Values in 86 of the 199 Auckland suburbs analysed have dropped by at least 1% since March, with 13 down by at least 3%. At the other end of the spectrum, only 25 suburbs have risen by at least 1% over the same period.

Herne Bay remains Auckland’s most expensive market with a median value of $3.41 million and Auckland Central was the most affordable with a median value of $540,000.

Hamilton

Five suburbs in Hamilton have seen median values rise by at least 5% in the past year, with only Queenwood recording a notable (1.6%) fall. However, values in Hamilton have slowed over the past three months.

Harrowfield was among the three suburbs that dropped by at least 0.5% in the three months to June, but still remains the most expensive suburb with properties in excess of $1.1m. Meanwhile, Bader was the cheapest ($593,950).

Tauranga

Six suburbs in Tauranga have seen values rise by 3% or more over the 12 months to June, with only the suburb of Otumoetai recording a notable (2.2%) decline in values.

Poike and Papamoa are among seven areas where values have increased by at least 1% since March, in contrast to the five out of 20 that edged at least 1% downwards.

Mount Maunganui ($1.34m) is the most expensive suburb in Tauranga and the cheapest is Parkvale ($678,300).

Wellington

Although the suburbs of Wilton, Totara Park and Paparangi had median value growth of 10% to 12% over the last year, Wellington has lost speed in the past few months, with 30 suburbs out of 94 analysed down by at least 1% since March.

Seatoun remains the most expensive suburb ($1.74m) while Wellington Central is the cheapest ($502,100).

Christchurch

All 83 Christchurch suburbs analysed recorded a rise in median values since June last year. The suburb of Hillmorton saw an 11% increase over that period.

Over the last quarter, however, momentum had slowed, with Lyttelton and six other suburbs dropping by at least 0.5%.

Kennedys Bush is the priciest suburb ($1.71m), while Phillipstown is the cheapest with a median value of $451,600.

Dunedin

Median values rose in all 63 Dunedin suburbs analysed, with 12 up by at least 5%. Rising faster than the norm were Liberton, Roslyn and Maori Hill, all recording value increases of up to 6% to 7%.

But the city has not escaped the cooling in the market, with 13 suburbs down by at least 1% since March.

Maori Hill is Dunedin’s only market with a median value at or above $1m, although Vauxhall is catching up with its median value of $970,100. The most affordable suburb is South Dunedin at $420,650.

And what’s likely to happen next?

Davidson said the turnaround in values over the last year reflected the relative resilience of the labour market and strong net migration.

“The more recent loss of momentum tends to reflect continued affordability pressures and high mortgage rates, the rise in listings on the market, and a turning point for unemployment.

“Tax cuts and looser LVR (loan to value ratio) rules may not boost activity or prices very much in an environment where mortgage rates remain high, although the removal of first home grants and the introduction of DTI (debt to income) limits might not necessarily undermine the market greatly either.”

Overall, 2024 was on track to be a pretty subdued year for te housing market, he said.