Mince is quick, mince is easy. But is it still cheap? No, it is not

Tuesday, 19 August 2025

Global pressures are driving up the prices of one of NZ's most loved staples - beef. So what's driving the surge and is there any relief in sight?

Home cooks know mince could be considered the most versatile of meats, but with a kilo of ground beef costing about $3.50 a kilo more than it did a year ago, it’s not the budget option it once was.

As mince hits around $22/kg in the shops, dare we ask, is mince the new butter?

We took note as butter went up by 42.2% from a year ago to an average price of $8.59 for a 500g block and food prices in general increased by 5% in the 12 months to July 2025, according to Stats NZ.

Meanwhile the price of beef in that latest release of figures also left a bad taste in the mouth. Stats NZ said beef steak and mince, were up 24.6% and 19.3%, respectively.

'The average price of 1 kilo of beef mince cost $21.97 in July, that’s about $3.50 more than a year ago,' Stats NZ spokeswoman Nicola Growden said.

For the love of mince, that’s a price rise. What’s behind the big increases?

The price of beef steak is up nearly 25% in the last year and a kilo of mince is about $3.50 more that it was a year ago.

What’s pushing the price up?

Gareth Kiernan, chief forecaster at Infometrics, said it’s essentially very similar to what is going on with butter and it's mostly a case of global demand and supply conditions.

“Supply has been pretty weak. Overall you've had falling herd numbers in the likes of the US and Australia, and so there's not as many beef cattle running around and not as many to send off to the works. And, at the same time, you've had some fairly strong demand conditions in the US, where they’re still eating plenty of hamburgers, but also increasingly strong demand also coming out of China”.

Effectively farmers at home are saying this is how much I can get for my beef on the international market so I’m not going to sell it to you for any less here, Kiernan said.

New Zealand’s overseas markets are significant and roughly 90% of our beef is exported, said Matt Dilly, agricultural economist at ANZ.

Half of that goes to the US and they are short of livestock at the moment, he said.

“So they're looking for beef from anywhere, New Zealand, Australia, elsewhere, to try and fill that gap and for as long as the US consumer keeps buying beef burgers, then demand for our products will remain strong”.

Beef cattle on a hill in Te Awamutu. New Zealand’s overseas markets are significant and roughly 90% of Kiwi beef is exported.

Dilly said there’s usually about a three month lag from when the global price goes up or down for that to flow through to consumers in New Zealand.

Grass-fed meat is also seasonal and livestock flows are at their lowest through winter according to Beef + Lamb New Zealand Inc.

“On top of this, there are well documented drops in overall livestock numbers, due to recent droughts and land use changes,” Kit Arkwright, CEO of Beef + Lamb New Zealand Inc. said.

Will the price at the shops keep on increasing?

Kiernan doesn’t have good news for the thrifty beef-loving consumer.

“Analysts are still looking at the international demand and supply conditions and are going, actually, we think there’s still more upside in terms of prices in the next sort of 12 to 18 months potentially,” Kiernan said.

Arkwright told Stuff Beef + Lamb New Zealand Inc acknowledge the pressure that rising meat prices and supply challenges are placing on consumers right now.

“While we cannot predict how prices will move over the coming months, we know these conditions are challenging. At the same time, strong export returns do play a critical role in supporting New Zealand’s wider economy – contributing to jobs, particularly in regional communities, and generating tax revenue that benefits the country as a whole.”

Dilly said one way the industry has been increasing supply over the past few years is the growing herd of beef-dairy cross cattle.

“So these are the offspring of dairy animals that aren't needed for the dairy industry, but you can raise them for beef”, which he agreed, for the most part, contributed to the availability of lower quality mince in supermarkets, and “that's not just for the local market, that's for the export market as well”.

So what can shoppers do?

As a consumer you might already be changing your habits as beef prices increase.

People start to switch to other meat or sources of protein or just eat less of it overall, said Kiernan.

Beef + Lamb New Zealand Inc encouraged consumers to shop around with supermarkets, independent butcheries and growing online options offering a wide range of choice.