Three companies are about to turn the US stock market on its head. Kiwi investors are going along for the ride

Wednesday, 3 June 2026

Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX are hinting at public listings that could inject an unprecedented $4 trillion into the US stock market.

Stuff Money editor Damian Venuto joins Sam Sachdeva to discuss the 'untethered' growth of KiwiSaver funds, the impact of the S&P 500's earnings, and whether the AI-driven 'circular economy' is a bubble waiting to burst.

Because these companies will rapidly join major indices like the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500, everyday passive investors—including Kiwis via KiwiSaver—will automatically own a stake.

Recent rule changes allow companies to enter these indices much faster, exposing everyday retail portfolios to extreme early-trading volatility and a higher concentration of risk.

Analysis: We’re potentially about to see more than US$4 trillion (NZ$6.7 trillion) in company value land on the US stock market in a shockingly short period of time – and whether we realise it or not, many of us are going along for that ride.

Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI have all signalled their intention to list on the market in what’s called an Initial Public Offering (IPO).

This will give investors the ability to directly buy stock in these highly vaunted and tremendously complex companies.

SpaceX is tipped to land with an initial valuation of US$2 trillion, while estimates suggest Anthropic and OpenAI could be worth a trillion dollars each.

Even in the current market, a trillion-dollar valuation is not something to be scoffed at. The first trillion-dollar company on the US stock market was only crowned in 2018 when Apple passed that threshold after decades in business – and we’ve since seen Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Nvidia and Tesla join this exclusive club.

SpaceX boss Elon Musk and OpenAI founder Sam Altman are both eyeing blockbuster listings.

Only one other company has secured a trillion-dollar IPO valuation in the past: Saudi Aramco, which is exclusively on the Saudi stock exchange and was built on generations of oil wealth.

The massive valuations of companies like Apple and Saudi Aramco were built on high profits, strong growth and the sale of tangible items that billions of people around the world needed. The valuations of Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX are judged by a completely different playbook. They’re based on the potential of their future earnings and the promise that these companies will come to dominate the areas they operate in.

“It’s an unprecedented time for the [US] market to have three trillion-dollar IPOs to absorb in a short space of time,” says Chris Smith, the managing director of CMC Markets in New Zealand.

“Expect immense market volatility.”

Aggressive growth KiwiSaver funds typically allocate 70% to 100% of their total mix to equities. US stocks usually account for 40 to 65% of that allocation, meaning that KiwiSaver investors in growth funds are highly reliant on the performance of the US market.

Smith warns that AI, in particular, often comes with big hype followed by moderation after the fact. And he has examples to prove his point.

After listing in the US at $185, AI firm Cerebras reached $350 on the opening day of trading, but now, only a month later, it’s back down at $200. The Figma IPO tells a similar story, with the company popping 158% on day one, but it’s since down 81% from its initial listing price.

Chris Smith is the managing director at CMC Markets New Zealand.

Volatility by default

Avoiding this volatility won’t be as easy as simply refusing to buy these stocks directly.

Smith notes that New Zealand investors, including KiwiSaver, with exposure to US index funds will eventually own a portion of these companies, as they do with all the large companies listed on either the Nasdaq 100 index or the S&P 500.

These two indices consistently feature among the top ten most popular investments among retail investors in New Zealand.

And here’s the clincher: you could end up invested in these highly volatile companies far earlier than you would have historically.

Earlier this year, the rules for admission into these two popular indices were quietly changed. Previously, a company would not be allowed to enter the Nasdaq 100 earlier than 90 days after listing. This was implemented as a seasoning period to ensure that the initial volatility was eased out in early trading.

This has been lowered to 15 days, which means Kiwis could invest in these companies much earlier after they list.

The rules have also become more accommodating in the S&P 500. The 12-month seasoning period has been cut in half to six months.

Wall Street analysts are divided on this issue. Some believe it allows for greater efficiency in the market, but others worry that it will result in manufactured demand for companies that benefit simply by being part of a powerful index.

For the average Kiwi investor, this basically means that we’d be heading into this risky territory at a time when it’s still at its most volatile.

Jeremy Sullivan, an investment adviser at Hamilton Hindin Greene, says once these companies are added to those large indices, investors may end up owning them regardless of whether they have formed a view on that specific company.

Jeremy Sullivan says that the massive companies will likely be added to major indices.

“That’s not a failure of index investing, but it is a reminder that passive does not mean risk-free,” says Sullivan.

For KiwiSaver funds, the impact will depend on the type of fund they have.

“A conservative fund probably has limited sensitivity. A growth or aggressive fund with a large global equity allocation will be more exposed, especially if the AI trade continues to dominate US and global equity markets,” says Sullivan.

The arrival of these three firms could be good news or bad news, depending on how you see the AI and space hype playing out.

“The bigger picture is that some of the world’s most important private companies are moving toward public markets,” says Sullivan.

“That gives ordinary investors more access, which is positive. But it also means global indices and KiwiSaver funds may become even more exposed to a small number of very large US technology, AI and space-related companies.”

If Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI do list at the valuations suggested, they will become three of the largest companies in the world despite the fact that they’ve been burning through billions of dollars in recent years. How this plays out is anyone’s guess.

It will also see controversial Tesla founder Elon Musk at the helm of two of the largest publicly listed companies in the world.

Only seven to 10 companies today account for around 38% of the total value of the S&P 500. So much fortune is riding on so few – and in the coming months, that issue could be further exacerbated.

So what’s your view on this? Will you invest in these companies? And how worried are you about your index funds? Let us know in the comments section below.