Is the manual gearbox dead? Numbers seem to hint our love affair for stick driving is over

Friday, 25 May 2018

Kiwi buyers aren't interested in shifting gears themsleves, so has the manual transmission made its last shift?

The decision by Ford to drop a manual transmission option from the Ranger ute is significant and has reignited a debate that has flared up on a regular basis over the last decade.

People who love manual transmissions love them with a passion and would never consider driving anything else. But they are becoming increasingly rare.

'If the car makers would give us manual transmissions, we would buy them' is the common cry from the avowed manual enthusiast. 'They are forcing us into automatics' they howl in indignation every time some car is announced as auto-only.

But are the manufacturers forcing automatic transmissions on us, or are we simply not buying them?

The Hilux makes up the vast majority of Toyota's manual transmission sales. Not this one though, it's an auto.

* Five small cars that you can still buy with a manual transmission

* Little Mazda proves there's life yet in the old manual transmission

* Manual is no longer the automatic choice for the Suzuki Swift Sport**

The Bullitt Mustang is only available as a manual, but the standard Mustang range is sold mainly with autos.

The numbers pretty much insist it is the latter, so we asked the top 10 vehicle brands in New Zealand about their sales of manual transmissions in an effort to answer the big question - is the manual transmission dead?

TOYOTA

The market leader has a number of cars available with a manual transmission, but it still only makes up 15 per cent of its total sales.

Around 70 per cent of those manual sales are with Hilux, while the Hiace makes up roughly another 20 per cent.

Toyota says that this has been fairly consistent over the past few years.

The bulk of Holden's local manual transmission sales come from the Colorado ute.

FORD

Even with the incredibly popular Ranger (it's the best selling vehicle in NZ, remember) and the Mustang in its range, as well as a number of manual-only cars like the Focus RS and Mustang Bullitt, Ford sells relatively few manuals.

The MX-5 RF is one of a handful of Mazdas that is available with a manual transmission.

The manual transmission-equipped cars make up less than 8 per cent of Mustang sales, with this number dropping to 3 per cent if you take out the recently announced manual-only Bullitt.

The Ranger gets similar take-up on its manual option, leading Ford to take the decision to drop the manual altogether for 2019.

There are no manual SUVs in Mitsubishi's range. Its customers just don't want them.

'What's happening is a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy,' says Ford spokesman Tom Clancy.

'As a result of [people not buying autos], fewer people are learning to drive manuals to begin with. In fact, we now see customers citing it as a Health and Safety issue for their drivers and requiring automatics for their fleet.'

HOLDEN

'We're still selling a few, but they are certainly the domain of LCV models.' says Holden's spokesman Ed Finn.

Currently the only manual Hyundai sells in NZ is the iLoad van. And that is outsold two-to-one by the automatic.

Last year manual transmissions accounted for less than 10 per cent of Holden's sales in NZ, while things are looking fairly similar for this year. The majority of these sales are made up by the Colorado.

MAZDA

Nissan sells four times as many automatic 370Zs than it does manuals in New Zealand.

Mazda offers a few vehicles with the choice of a manual transmission (the Mazda2, MX-5 RF and BT-50), but the take up is still only around 5 per cent of the company's sales.

The BT-50 ute makes up the bulk of this, with around 17 per cent of Mazda's ute sales being with a manual transmission.

MITSUBISHI

'Manual is a story of two buyer types; passenger vehicle and LCV,' says Mitsubishi's chief operating officer in NZ, Daniel Cook.

Suzuki's tiny and tough Jimny is one of the few vehicles in New Zealand that sells more with a manual than with an auto.

'Basically we see no demand at all for manual in the passenger/SUV market, and as such now only sell automatic.

'The LCV (for us ute) market however is much different. There are still a lot of buyers whose preference is for manual transmissions.'

Cook said that 37 per cent of sales of the company's Triton ute were in manual and he didn't see that number decreasing significantly in the next five years.

HYUNDAI

The Stinger is Kia's sportiest car, but you can't buy a manual. In fact, Kia hardly sells any manuals.

The only vehicle with a manual transmission that Hyundai sells in NZ is the iLoad van, and even then the automatic version outsells it 2 to 1.

This will change soon, however, when the manual-only i30 N hot hatch goes on sale.

Most utes still sell relatively well in manual form, but not the VW Amarok. Its buyers overwhelmingly prefer auto.

NISSAN

'Manual transmissions are not dead, but are most certainly rapidly diminishing in popularity,' says Nissan NZ managing director John Manley.

The Navara ute is the only vehicle Nissan sells in any significant numbers with a manual transmission here, with 28 per cent of sales being manual.

Even traditional sports cars such as 370Z are selling at 4:1 in favour of autos, Manley said, and he expects to see the trend towards automatic transmissions continue, echoing Ford's comments about fleets.

'Given the safe workplace requirements auto is a much better or only option.'

SUZUKI

Manual uptake varies massively for Suzuki across its range, largely thanks to its unique model mix of almost exclusively SUVs and small cars, which is something the company's general manager for marketing, Gary Collins, points out.

'For us the proportion of manuals varies depending on models,' he said.

As expected the rugged Jimny has the company's highest proportion of manual owners by far.

Encouragingly for the enthusiast, the Swift Sport still attracts 33 per cent of its buyers to the manual, while the Jimny attracts an impressive 68 per cent.

KIA

The sale of manual transmissions in NZ for Kia are 'infinitesimally small' according to the company.

While a manual Kia can be ordered, the company has only sold 55 cars with manual transmissions since the start of this year.

VOLKSWAGEN

Volkswagen only carries the manual version of the new Polo in stock in NZ, with the Golf manual being available on special order only.

Last year the passenger side of VW NZ sold 4028 cars in New Zealand and only 75 of those were manual, representing less than 2 per cent of sales.

Over on the commercial side, with the Amarok ute, things were a bit different, but not probably how you would expect - the Amarok currently sits at less than 1 per cent take up of for the manual transmission.

SO IS THE MANUAL DEAD?

Even in the ute segment, where the manual still has its strongest hold, it is slipping - less than a decade ago the manual/auto split there was around 80:20 in favour of the manual, now it is the other way around.

Not unexpectedly it is the new-generation of utes that have found popularity with urban buyers (the Ranger and Amarok) that are driving this.

So while the manual transmission isn't dead yet, it is becoming an endangered species, largely due to lack of consumer interest.

But enthusiasts should take heart, because the vast majority of manufacturers are still happy to sell you a manual and will continue to do so. As long as you keep buying them.