Buying EVs: thinking and doing are two very different things

Tuesday, 30 July 2019

Pure-EVs are a small part of NZ's electrified vehicle fleet - but there's still a lot of choice.

OPINION: Much excitement this week over some Trade Me data that shows 75 per cent of 1300 New Zealanders surveyed would consider an Electric Vehicle (EV) for their next car.

That's good news for the changing public perception of EVs. But I don't think it's reason to start panicking about the looming obsolescence of your petrol or diesel car.

Seventy five per cent of Kiwis are not going to choose an EV as their next car. That's absurd.

Excellent Hyundai Kona Electric is NZ's best-selling EV. But still rare: just 200 sold year-to-date.

We do get excited about growing EV numbers though. The total EV fleet in NZ is currently 14,867. This time last year it was just 8708, so that's a near-60 per cent increase.

**READ MORE:

Previous-generation used Nissan Leafs have arrived in NZ by the truckload. Good EV kickstart, but not a sustainable long-term plan.

* Why we won't all be driving EVs in a few years

* Every EV you can buy in NZ (new and used)

BMW i3: like any new tech, new EVs are still for the fortunate few.

* Inconvenient truth about EV running costs**

Plug-in hybrids give you petrol convenience and range with zero-emissions commuting ability. Here's your PHEV shopping list.

But percentages look exciting when the base numbers are small. That previous sentence was 10 words long, but I've just increased my count by 15 per cent - no, make that 24 per cent.

Anyway, the Kiwi EV fleet is still minuscule. That 15k round number includes the entire fleet (not a year's worth of sales or anything) and comprises everything from heavy trucks (yes there are some) to plug-in cars of all kinds.

For the record, the fleet is currently made up of 11,146 pure EVs (8522 used imports, 2624 NZ-new), 3581 plug-in hybrids (1177 used, 2404 new) and 140 heavy vehicles.

In a fleet of approximately 3.5 million vehicles (it's more than that, but let's stick with nice round numbers) the EV numbers are utterly inconsequential. At the moment.

We're on the start of a path - sorry, road - towards EV motoring of many kinds. But it's a really long road. It's the same for every car market in the world.

NZ has had a per-capita kickstart with its used-import policy, which has allowed thousands of Nissan Leafs to come into the country and provide a relatively cheap EV option for budget-minded buyers. Most of those 8522 used EVs in the fleet are Leafs.

Great for the plug-in count, although those cars won't contribute as much to cleaning up our future as new EVs because many of them are half-way through their useful life already. In the same way that a 2012-model petrol car is half-way through its useful life.

The dirty secret of many of those older Leaf models is that they are ex-Japan, with a lower standard of safety than models sold in other countries - which would in turn mean they would likely be one or two-star cars under the government's much-talked-about Used Car Safety Rating programme. The Leaf isn't currently included in the data because (a) it hasn't been around long enough to figure and (b) a lot of the data comes out of Australia.

Am I picking on the old Leaf? Probably. But it does annoy me that they seem to get a free pass on fleet-age and safety just because you can plug them in. Criticising them seems to be akin to smearing coal on an Otorohanga Kiwi.

Anyway, I digress (slightly). The most dramatic switch to EVs in any country has been Norway, where the new-car market is now 30 per cent electric. But that's with massive incentives partly funded by North Sea oil and punitive taxes on petrol and diesel vehicles. Like the NZ government's proposed 'feebates' I guess, although I don't think a $1400 tax is going to stop anybody buying a $70k Ford Ranger. That's not even the price of one decent accessory.

Anyway, Norway's EV market is regarded as astonishing by global standards. And 30 per cent is a lot less than 75 per cent.

If public perception is a big issue that's been overcome in NZ, an even bigger one is model availability and cost. There are only a dozen pure EVs on the market and the cheapest (Hyundai Ioniq and the just-launched new-gen Nissan Leaf) are still $60k. Good value in new-car terms, but still $60k.

The biggest-selling EV year-to-date is the Hyundai Kona (only 200 though), and that's a $70k-plus car. Again, great value. But still a $70k car.

Same for the Tesla Model 3, which has been lauded by both its maker and Tesla cult members as bringing affordable EV motoring to the masses. It starts at $74k.

Many of the most-talked-about new EVs, like the Jaguar I-Pace, Audi e-tron and founding Tesla models, are over $100k. Nice drives if you can afford them.

The prices are big, the sales numbers are small and even for the handful of EVs that are available, there are supply issues for many because they are in such demand in Europe as makers desperately try to meet emissions targets.

There will be a new wave of cheaper EVs coming in the next few years, but maybe they'll be $50k cars rather than $60k cars. They won't be super-cheap. And likely also subject to delays for the reasons already discussed.

Even if NZ did hit 30 per cent EV sales like Norway, it would take 20 years for half of our vehicle fleet to be electric. So don't panic about making the move unless you're really ready, just because you think everybody else is and you'll be left behind. They're not and you won't.

Before you get the poison pen out, I'm an EV fan (but not a fanboy, there's a difference) and have had various models as everyday transport for the past two years - running them as long-term test vehicles and reporting the results. And yes, I do pay to run them out of my own pocket so I do appreciate the economic ins and outs.

I'm lucky in that I get to drive a car that most people can't possibly afford (which is kind of the point I'm making - most people can't afford them yet). That's been a dream come true in many ways.

But that doesn't mean I live in a fantasy world when it comes to the place of EVs in NZ's present and future.

I think it's good to have a reality check every now and then.

Over 100,000 new cars are sold in NZ every year (again, it's way more but let's keep the numbers round) and as many again used-imports. Since all the EV-fleet numbers seem to include both, let's just say that for 75 per cent of Kiwis to choose an EV as their next car, there would have to be be 150,000 EV registrations per year. That'd be something.

I've just checked and there are 1169 used Leafs on Trade Me. It's a start I guess.