Stats check: Is migration helping to break New Zealand's 'man drought'?

Tuesday, 6 March 2018

Could the odds of finding an eligible bachelor be improving for New Zealand's single women?

Stuff is taking a closer look at popular claims or statistics, to see whether they stack up and dive deeper into the numbers. In this, the first instalment of the series Stats Check, Andy Fyers takes a look at New Zealand's 'man drought'.

The 'man drought' has been a cause of plenty of angst in New Zealand in recent years, with the shortage of eligible males blamed for everything from women needing to 'partner down', to sub-standard dating skills and even problems finding participants for reality TV shows.

Data from the 2013 Census revealed the true extent of the 'drought'. It showed that for the adult population (15 years and older), there were just 92.6 males for every 100 females in New Zealand. For those in the 25-49 age bracket, the ratio was worse - 91.6 men for every 100 women.

The 'man drought' is not felt evenly across the country. The ratio of men to women aged 25-49 ranges from 86 to 100 in parts of the North Island to 96 to 100 in Canterbury.

* Man drought leaves many lacking romance**

Canterbury's situation has been helped by the influx of male tradies to help with the rebuild since 2011 - although that has led to complaints of an 'educated man drought'.

In other mainly rural parts of the South Island where male-dominated industries such as farming predominate, ratios are also similar. In Southland there are 94 men aged 25-49 for every 100 women and 93 in Otago and on the West Coast.

However, the Census is now five years old, and while there isn't anything recent that is as comprehensive as a Census available, there is some evidence to suggest that the severity of the 'man drought' is easing.

Since 2013 New Zealand's population has boomed - growing by about 400,000 people, thanks largely to strong net migration.

So has the influx of migrants (and returning New Zealanders) had an impact on the 'man drought'?

The answer is a cautious maybe. In between Censuses, Stats NZ produces population estimates.

The latest of these estimates that there are now 95.4 men for every 100 women aged between 25 and 49 - an increase of three men for every 100 women in the past five years.

It's estimated that between March 2013 (the Census) and December 2017 the number of males in this age bracket increased by a 86,000 while the number of women increased by 63,000. A net gain of 23,000 males over females.

However, the caution that comes with these figures is in the name - they are just estimates. And like any estimate, they are prone to a degree of error.

A Stats NZ study that looked the their accuracy by comparing them against figures from the Census in 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2013 and found that 'the relative errors (REs) for the different sexes at national level ranged from -1.6 per cent to 1.3 per cent, with males generally being overestimated and females generally being underestimated.'

In 2013 the figures overestimated the male population by 1.3 per cent or 29,100 compared to the Census and some of the biggest discrepancies came in the key 'man drought' age bracket of 25-49.

The study also points out that periods of strong net migration (like the current one) can add to the uncertainty around population estimates.

So while the estimates might give some hope to 'victims' of the 'man drought', we won't know for sure that it is easing until the results of the 2018 Census - currently being conducted - are released.

* Is there a popular claim or statistic you'd like us to take a closer look at? Leave a suggestion in the comments or email us at newstips@stuff.co.nz

Stuff is producing this series with Figure NZ.