The country will be warmer than normal in autumn, and wetter in places too

Monday, 2 April 2018

Don't break out the scarves just yet, the hot weather is set to linger through autumn as warmer sea temperatures continue to bring the tropics to New Zealand.

Northern and eastern areas of the North Island are set to be warmer and wetter than average, with the Tasman Sea bringing moisture into New Zealand from the north and the west.

Warmer than average temperatures are also expected for the rest of the country from April to June, however rainfall should remain normal for that time of year.

New Zealand’s regional climate over April – June 2018 is expected to be driven by persistence of more northeasterly airflow than normal, and by the persistence of warm ocean waters that are present around the country.

The seasonal forecast was issued by Niwa in its outlook for Autumn 2018, and meteorologist Ben Noll said the warmer conditions will last through to the end of the season and into winter.

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The northern Tasman Sea will remain unsettled, with lower pressures than normal, bringing the likelihood of significant rainfall events to the North Island and the upper South Island.

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'The north and east of the North Island will see above normal rainfall due to warm northeasterly winds bringing moisture from the subtropics.

'Even though the forecast is for above average temps we'll have to watch for the risk of frost as cold snaps occur in the autumn season and into winter,' he said.

The hot news comes on the back of a summer where New Zealand sweated through its hottest on record.

The nationwide average temperature for the 2017-18 summer was 18.8 degrees Celsius, 0.3C above the previous 1934-35 record of 18.5C, and a significant 2.1C above the 1981-2010 averages.

'Warm seas will give us warmer than average air temperatures,' Noll said.

'As we go through the season La Nina is decaying which means more variable windflow patterns from the northeast and southwest.'

The west of the North Island, the north of the South Island and the east of the South Island will see near normal or above normal rainfall, he said.

Noll said rainfall in the west of the South Island should be the same as years gone by.