Another bout of severe weather headed for east, north North Island

Monday, 11 June 2018

MetService's national forecast for Monday afternoon and evening.

Heavy rain and severe gales are set to move across northern and central New Zealand as a deepening sub-tropical low comes ashore.

MetService said on Monday night that the low was moving south towards the North Island, and was expected to move onto the Bay of Plenty during Tuesday morning and lie near the central high country by midnight Tuesday.

It would then move south-eastwards and lie just to the southeast of central New Zealand by midday Wednesday.

A week after a family had to be rescued from the roof of a house near Tolaga Bay, heavy rain is again closing in on the Gisborne region.

The low will bring heavy rain and gales to many parts of northern and central New Zealand and MetService warned the heavy rain may cause streams and rivers to rise rapidly. Surface flooding and slips are also possible. Driving conditions may be hazardous.

**READ MORE:

The low was expected to move onto the Bay of Plenty during Tuesday morning.

* Tolaga Bay cleanup could cost $10m but who should pay?

* Family clambered on top of furniture as waist-high torrent flowed through house

* Snow fans rejoice - we're in for an epic winter**

Heavy rain warnings are in place for the Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty including Rotorua and the Kaimai Range, Gisborne, Hawke's Bay, the Tararua Ranges and the Kaikoura Ranges.

The Coromandel Peninsula could see more than 100mm of rain by 3pm Tuesday, while Bay of Plenty could receive up to 150mm between 3am Tuesday and 12am on Wednesday.

Gisborne, still drenched from last week's soaking, could face another huge deluge, with up to a further 220mm possible before 4pm on Tuesday. Thunderstorms are also possible.

Tairawhiti Civil Defence Emergency Management Response Manager Paul Stuart said the heaviest rainfall in the area was predicted to be around the Raukumara Ranges, but the entire district was expected to see heavy falls. Gisborne city could also see up t0 100mm of rain.

Hawkes Bay could receive up to a further 200mm by 12am Wednesday, mainly about the ranges, with thunderstorms possible, while the Tararua Ranges could get 125mm of rain in the 24 hours to 3am on Wednesday.

The Kaikoura Ranges could get up to 220mm of rain between 3am Tuesday and 3pm Wednesday.

Many parts of the country are also warned to expect strong winds. The Bay Of Plenty including Rotorua can expect southeast gales to be severe at times gusting 120 km/h in exposed places until late Tuesday morning, especially in the east. Then from late morning until early Tuesday afternoon, a period of severe northeast gales gusting 120 kmh in exposed places is forecast.

Severe southeast gales are also forecast for Taupo and Taihape until 3pm Tuesday, while in Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatū and Kapiti-Horowhenua the gales will blow until 6pm Tuesday.

The Marlborough Sounds also faces southeast gales severe at times in exposed places with gusts of 120 km/h until 6pm Tuesday.

Heavy rain and strong winds, although less severe, is also expected across most remaining areas of the North Island

The Gisborne district's river levels and rainfall will continue to be monitored by the Tairawhiti Civil Defence Emergency Management and Gisborne District Council's flood warning team.

Earlier on Monday, MetService meteorologist Mark Todd said the latest bad weather was a 'Isignificant system and it's going to bring another bout of severe weather to the upper North Island'.

'We've gone from cold southwesterlies with the last system, and snow, to basically another deep subtropical low coming down,' Todd said.

LONG WEEKEND DELUGE

The imminent arrival of this latest bout of heavy rain and severe gales follows the downpours, slips and flooding that disrupted the Queen's Birthday long weekend a week ago in the north of the country.

Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty were hit by heavy rain eight days ago, on Sunday, June 4.

That was followed by torrential overnight rain that brought huge volumes of forestry slash - scrap timber, branches and off cuts left behind in felling areas - down narrow valleys in the Gisborne region.

At least three houses were lost. Stock was lost. Bridges were damaged, paddocks were drowned in mud and debris and kilometres of fences were damaged.

Among the worst affected was the Mitchell family, who were forced to clamber onto their roof as their home began to flood in the early hours of the morning on Queen's Birthday Monday.

The clean-up in Gisborne from that event is expected to cost $10 million.

The flooding a week ago was followed by a bout of freezing weather from the south, bringing snow to as low as 200m in parts of the South Island late Tuesday and early Wednesday. There was even a dusting of snow to sea level in Dunedin.

Snow also fell to low enough levels in the North Island during the week that the Desert Road and Napier-Taupō Road were closed for a time. Then on Thursday there was more snow in the South Island, although not to the low levels of earlier in the week.