Census data won't make Budget 2019

Wednesday, 12 December 2018

National Party finance spokeswoman Amy Adams says it's 'highly unusual' that Census 2018 data wasn't intended to be used for next year's Budget.

Crucial funding decisions in Budget 2019 will be made without data from Census 2018.

Statistics New Zealand has confirmed valuable population data coming from the repeatedly delayed national survey will not be ready for next year's Budget, and says it never was intended to be.

But National Party finance spokeswoman Amy Adams says it's 'highly unusual' that such data wasn't intended to be used.

Census 2018 had the lowest turnout in 50 years, and Stats NZ has repeatedly pushed out an initial release date set for October 2018, due to the continued threat of incomplete data.

Statistics New Zealand may not release Census 2018 results until August 2019, and even then it might not be as robust as previous years. The delay has huge implications for decisions makers and funding considerations.

**READ MORE:

* Fear of 'stale' census data

* 2018 Census - what happened?

* Census response rate drops as survey moves to online focus

* Didn't do your census? Stats NZ may prosecute you

Individual responses to Census 2018 were lower than hoped, and the results might not come until August 2019.

* Online Census a bold experiment that backfired**

Stuff has revealed Stats NZ is now planning for an August 2019 release, and concern has been raised it will lead to 'less than ideal' decisions being made by organisations who depend on the data.

On Wednesday, a Stats New Zealand spokesman said the department had produced national and sub-national population estimates for June 30, 2018, based on the 2013 census.

Pleasant Point woman Angela Mounsey told Stuff in February she found the new census system confusing. (File photo)

'Updated population data was never intended to be available for Budget 2019.

'[Stats NZ] has also created a customised projection based on the national population estimate, and is managing queries from government agencies about the data available in the interim.'

Population and occupied dwelling counts were expected for the initial release of census results, previously scheduled for October 2018.

Stuff has asked why 2018 population estimates were never intended to be used in 2019.

Adams said: 'I'd be interested to know when was the last time a Budget didn't use real information when there had been a Census taken the previous year.'

The Government needed to explain whether district health boards and schools - which are funded based on Census population data - would have funding backdated 'if the actual population data in Census 2018 varies significantly from the estimates used in Budget 2019'.

'It would appear the agencies that are funded in this way such as DHBs and schools are going to have legitimate expectations that their funding will be backdated,' she said.

Details of Budget 2019 leaked to the National party emerged on Wednesday, and revealed focuses on mental wellbeing, reducing child poverty and family violence, and lifting Māori and Pacific incomes.

Tackling such goals requires accurate data of populations, and Te Mana Raraunga (Māori Data Sovereignty Network) has spelled out its concern to Stats NZ behind the scenes.

The organisation, made up of more than 1000 Māori researchers and entrepreneurs, has said the response rate for Māori may be less than 80 per cent.

'The Government has a number of policy priorities … all of which disproportionately impact Māori and Pacific peoples. Addressing these issues requires access to high quality and relevant data.

'Stats NZ has been tight-lipped about what the lower-than-expected national response rate might mean for Māori,' the organisation said in a June statement.

Stats NZ in October announced an independent review into what caused the lower-than-expected participation, and a final report from the review is scheduled to be delivered by July 2019.