How Islamic State rose to power, created a caliphate, and lost it

Monday, 15 April 2019

How Kiwi nurse Louisa Akavi was held captive by Islamic State since 2013 and why New Zealanders didn’t learn of her plight sooner.

Islamic State exploded into the public mind in 2014 when it rapidly expanded its territory in Iraq and began publicly executing hostages – including several held alongside Kiwi nurse Louisa Akavi.

But the group has roots that go back at least a decade prior.

2004 – Beginnings as al Qaeda in Iraq

A year after the United States invaded Iraq – at least in part as a reaction to 9/11 – the group responsible for that attack, al Qaeda, gained something like a proper local branch in the country. This branch was led Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian Sunni jihadist with links to al Qaeda and experience in Afghanistan. Indeed, his presence was part of the pretext for the invasion, but it was really in post-invasion Iraq that al-Zarqawi gained fame staging attacks on soldiers, government buildings, and Shia Muslims. (Shia and Sunni Muslims have differing beliefs over the succession of the prophet Muhammad. Al Qaeda and Isis are both Sunni, as are the majority of Muslims.)

**READ MORE:

* Special feature - The Secret Hostage

View of a heavily damaged neighbourhood in Kobane, Syria, which had been targeted by a series of US-led coalition airstrikes aimed at Islamic State members.

* Islamic State's Kiwi hostage: Inside the top-secret rescue effort

* Louisa Akavi, the hardy nurse with the skills to survive

* Why we've waited five years to tell Louisa Akavi's story

* Louisa Akavi - the Kiwi nurse taken in Syria

* Why Islamic State takes hostages like Louisa Akavi

Mohammed Emwazi or 'Jihadi John' was believed to be the person seen in videos produced by Isis showing the beheadings of a number of captives. He murdered journalist James Foley (pictured).

* Islamic State's foreign hostages: Propaganda tools and bargaining chips**

In 2004, al-Zarqawi pledged himself to al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden after eight months of negotiations with the leadership. The group was never officially christened 'al Qaeda in Iraq' or AQI but soon became known that way.

2005 – Fissures with al Qaeda

The relationship with al Qaeda gave al-Zarqawi access to a large international network of donors and logistical help. And in the chaos of Iraq, plans began within al Qaeda to establish an actual state, rather than just a terrorist force. But al-Zarqawi's method of jihad clashed with some of the higher-ups in al Qaeda, in particular bin Laden's number two man Ayman al-Zawahiri, who is now the leader of al Qaeda. Ironically, given AQI would go on to actually establish a state, Zawahiri was worried al-Zarqawi's tactics would imperil any new state.

The main difference was one of publicity: al-Zarqawi was fond of publicising grisly deaths of soldiers and Shia Muslims while Zawahiri believed that building a support base among local Muslims would require an end to public displays of brutality against other Muslims. We mostly know about this thanks to an intercepted letter from Zawahiri to Zaraqawi where he asks that brutal publicised executions of other Muslims be kept to a minimum.

2006 – The state is proclaimed

In January 2006, AQI established a coalition of forces which would in theory be capable of seizing political power once the US left Iraq. This was an important bit of institution-building, the first real step towards turning a fighting force into a governing one.

Later that year, al-Zarqawi was killed in a targeted bombing, but the wider plans for turning AQI into an Islamic state continued apace. On October 15, that coalition of forces issued a statement announcing the 'Islamic State of Iraq' or ISI. This gained the group a lot of online support from jihadists around the world, and it still serves as the official 'establishment day' for Isis for many followers. But a statement does not a nation make: the group's early attempts at actually governing in Iraq's Anbar province did not go very well, and the group fell into decline – but not defeat.

2010 – Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi takes on leadership and begins to rebuild

A fighter of the Christian Syriac militia that battles Islamic State group militants burns an IS flag on the front line.

ISI had been led by Abu Omar al-Baghdadi since its establishment in 2006, but after he was killed in a joint US-Iraqi operation Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (no relation) was named leader. This new al-Baghdadi had a history as a radical cleric for various jihadist groups. He had headed up the sharia (religious law) committee for ISI and had been a member of senior leadership groups. He had also been imprisoned briefly by American forces as a 'low-level prisoner' but was released after less than a year. It is likely he met some future Isis leaders while in prison.

Al-Baghdadi inherited a group that called itself a state but still lacked territory. What it did have was a well-developed media arm, a relationship with al Qaeda, continued aptitude for terrorist attacks, and a governing system complete with a cabinet of ministers.

The group in 2010 was focused on de-legitimising the new Iraqi government in the eyes of the majority Sunni population with large terrorist attacks. Over the years it had also worked hard on recruitment, often offering more money than the government would and even staging two prison breaks, one in 2007 and in 2010.

2011 – Osama Bin Laden is killed and Arab Spring gets going

On 17 December 2010, a street vendor in Tunisia set himself on fire to protest government interference with his business. This singular act sparked a wave of revolt against autocratic regimes across the Middle East known as the Arab Spring. Crucially, these protests kicked off a civil war in Syria that has been fought since 2011 to this day.

In May 2011, US forces killed al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in Pakistan. Notably, al-Baghdadi did not publicly pledge himself to bin Laden's replacement, Zawahiri.

But events in Syria dominated the year. By June, Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria looked to be teetering as army defections to a fairly moderate opposition increased. Yet within the opposition extreme jihadists began to proliferate – particularly after a set of prisoner releases by Assad, which scholar Charles Lister described as a cynical attempt to paint his opposition as extreme.

In August, with the Syrian Civil War raging, ISI sent seven high-powered jihadists across a now porous border between Iraq and Syria. ISI had long harboured ambitions outside of Iraq and already had networks within Syria, but this was the act that led just weeks later to the establishment of the al-Nusra front.

At that point Al-Nusra acted as an ISI and al Qaeda arm within Syria, but this would not last.

2012-2013 – ISI and al Qaeda split over Syrian offshoot Al-Nusra, and kidnappings take place

Al-Nusra – with secret money from ISI and al Qaeda – began 2012 with a series of terrorist attacks within Syria. This contrasted with the more conventional warfare undertaken by the Free Syrian Army, but nevertheless Al-Nusra began to integrate itself within the wider opposition as the year went on. The group expanded outside of just fighting and into more governmental work – such as the production of subsidised bread and delivery of electrical services for civilians in Aleppo.

Al-Baghdadi began to worry that this offshoot of ISI was gaining more prominence than he was – at this point ISI still lacked real territorial control in Iraq. He urged Al-Nusra to publicly declare their allegiance to ISI in a late-2012 letter but was rebuffed by Al-Nusra leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, who feared it would ruin the reputation of the group within the Syrian opposition.

This led al-Baghdadi to attempt an covert takeover of his wayward child. While this didn't sway the entire leadership, Lister notes that many of the actual fighters were on al-Baghdadi's side.

In April 2013, al-Baghdadi forced the issue by publicly declaring the links between ISI and Al-Nusra, and saying the two would now be combined in a group named the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Syria) – otherwise known as Isis or Isil. Most of the foreign fighting force immediately joined this new group.

Jolani publicly rejected this statement of ownership and instead pledged himself to al Qaeda, at that point still ISI's parent organisation. Al Qaeda leader Zawahiri took Jolani's side and asked al-Baghdadi to keep to Iraq. He refused.

Meanwhile in the Anbar province of Iraq, which borders Syria, long-run Sunni protests got more serious after the Shia-dominated Iraqi government arrested a local MP in December. Serious fighting broke out between the disorganised Iraqi army and opposition forces, including Isis, as part of the wider insurgency that has gripped parts of Iraq since US forces left in 2011.

October 2013 – Kiwi nurse captured

Among all this fighting in Syria, a group of jihadists captured a convoy of six Red Cross workers – including Kiwi nurse Akavi. She was eventually placed with a group of other captured Westerners, including American journalist James Foley and British journalist John Cantlie, who were captured in November of 2012, reportedly by the Al-Nusra front. All of these hostages would eventually find themselves in Isis' hands.

Early 2014 – Rapid expansion and war with other Syrian forces

2014 was an annus mirabilis for Isis – a golden year. Al-Baghdadi finally gained serious amounts of territorial control in Iraq and Syria, rapidly focusing the world's attention on the hitherto obscure group.

Isis began 2014 actively fighting the Anbar offensive in Iraq – indeed, by the end of the first week of January it captured the city of Fallujah and several other towns.

By February 3, the tension between Isis and al Qaeda boiled over and al Qaeda formally broke off its links with Isis. An Al-Nusra commander told Reuters 'now we are going to war with ISIL and will finish it off once and for all'. But the war between the groups was already well-established and Isis appeared to have the upper hand: seizing a seriously lucrative gas field in Syria, freeing scores of fighters from a Syrian prison, and establishing control over the Syrian city of Raqqa. In these areas under its control Isis established a very hard-line version of Islamic religious law, alienating some groups of citizens while enchanting others.

But early 2014 was not a complete run of victories and Isis often saw itself pushed back by other opposition forces in Syria and by the Iraqi government in Iraq. Isis was forced to withdraw from the Syrian provinces of Idlib and Latakia in March. It is estimated around 3000 people died as the fight between Syrian opposition forces continued.

Mid 2014 – The establishment of the Caliphate

By the middle of the year Isis was estimated to have 4000-6000 fighters in Iraq and another 3000-5000 in Syria.

As Isis won battles in Syria it had sucked up many smaller rebel groups. It had also attracted thousands of foreign fighters from overseas, drawn in by the sophisticated media campaign and promise of an established Iraqi state. Many of these troops came from Chechnya, a Muslim-majority region of Russia, but some hailed from Europe too.

Despite all those foreign fighters, Isis' force in Iraq was probably five-times smaller than the Iraqi army, which was also much better armed. Yet in June 2014, Isis managed to take control of Iraq's second largest city, Mosul, in a matter of days, before beginning a march on Baghdad. The world was stunned with this victory against the Iraqi army, many of whom had simply dropped their weapons and ran.

With the capture of Mosul and surrounding areas of Iraq, Isis gained serious legitimacy and power as a proto-state. It seized hundreds of millions of dollars from banks, picked up stockpiles of weapons provided to Iraq by the US, and took control of huge oil fields it could extract revenue from.

Just before the end of June, Isis announced its territory across Syria and Iraq as a religious 'caliphate' with al-Baghdadi at the head as a caliph and the Syrian city of Raqqa its capital. Al-Baghdadi called on Muslims around the world to back him and help conquer Rome – both by coming to the Middle East and by fighting in the West, proclaiming: 'Rush O Muslims to your state. It is your state. Syria is not for Syrians and Iraq is not for Iraqis. The land is for the Muslims, all Muslims.'

Islamic State (ISIS or ISIL) is an unrecognized state. In its self-proclaimed status as a caliphate, it claimed religious authority over all Muslims worldwide, and aimed to bring most Muslim-inhabited regions of the world under its political control.

Fighting continued across Iraq and Syria. The UN estimates over 3000 died in Iraq over June and July alone, and over a million Iraqis were displaced. The US announced it would send 3000 troops to Iraq to assist the local army, and stepped up air campaigns over the area.

Late 2014 – The executions, the Sinjar siege, and the high-water mark

Kiwi nurse Akavi and her fellow Western hostages Foley and Cantlie had been moved around locations in Syria, with ransoms being demanded by various groups. By June 2014, we know the hostages were being held by Isis as fellow hostage Daniel Rye Ottosen was released by them, and recounted his time with Foley. Ottosen was a Dane and it is likely his Government paid his ransom – the US has a strict policy against paying such ransoms.

In July 2014, a US rescue mission was attempted but failed since Foley had been moved from Raqqa. No ransom was paid and eventually in August an email was sent to Foley's family from Isis saying he would be executed soon as a retaliation for US air strikes in the region.

Within a week, a video of Foley's beheading by a man with a British accent was released by Isis on YouTube. It would not be the last: in the following months of 2014, Isis posted videos of the beheadings of Western hostages with alarming regularity. This started with American journalist Steven Sotloff on September 2, was followed by British aid Worker David Haines two weeks later, then British aid worker Alan Henning two weeks after that. In the following month, videos of the decapitated bodies of two Japanese hostages and another British one were released.

The New Zealand Government was aware Akavi was part of this group and there was fear she could meet a similar fate. In September Stuff become aware of the situation with Akavi but agreed not to publish any information as the Government believe it could endanger her life.

In early August, Isis captured three towns in northern Iraq's Sinjar district, a major population centre for the Yazidi religious minority and part of semi-autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan. Around 200,000 civilians fled, with 40-50,000 ending up trapped in the Sinjar Mountains without food or water. Those remaining were reportedly told to either convert to Islam or be killed.

It is estimated that up 6000 were kidnapped, while between 2000 and 5500 were killed. Women kidnapped were sold as sex slaves to Isis fighters or at some points back to their own families for ransom. The United Nations has classified this incident as an 'ongoing genocide'.

The plight of the trapped Yazidis on the Sinjar Mountains drew a response from both the US and local Kurdish military forces. The US launched airstrikes on Isis positions and backed Iraqi planes with airdrops of food and water, while planning a rescue mission. But this was cancelled after Iraqi and Syrian Kurdish forces cleared a path for those trapped to escape into Syria.

These air-strikes developed into a wider military push against Isis. In October the US set up a coalition of 30 countries to 'destroy and degrade' Isis under 'Operation Inherent Resolve'. This coalition was in the main led by the US but featured help from a huge list of countries, including New Zealand, the UK, France, and Australia. This coalition would eventually operate in both Iraq and Syria, occasionally alongside Kurdish forces who were also fighting Isis in the region.

2015 – Isis rollback begins while terror attacks step up

Late 2014 was the high-water mark for Isis in terms of territory control. The vast swathes of captured land in Syria and Iraq were about the size of the United Kingdom at this point in their history – and had perhaps 10 million people living in them. Much of the land was desert but it also contained several important towns along the Euphrates River.

In early 2015, other jihadist groups around the world began pledging allegiance to Isis, including Boko Haram in Africa and some forces in Libya and Afghanistan.

But sustained military action from many actors began to roll back Isis' territorial gains. By mid-January the US already believed its coalition air strikes had killed 6000 Isis fighters. And individual high-level targets were also being killed, including the British Isis fighter 'Jihadi John' who starred in the beheading videos.

In March 2015, Iraqi forces regained control of most of Tikrit, a city very close to Baghdad. By April it was fully in Iraq's control. By the end of the year, the group had lost the cities of Baiji, Sinjar, and Ramadi. But the rollback wasn't even – Isis recaptured Ramadi and other pockets of territory during the year. In May, the ancient Syrian city of Palmyra was captured on the Syria-Turkey border. This gave Isis full control over the border and also a propaganda win – destroying ancient Greco-Roman ruins and using the theatre as a site for public executions.

In areas it still controlled, Isis' governance style developed. By June the group began mandating that males living in Mosul must wear full beards – with punishments meted out including beheading for men who shaved. Anyone who protested the regime or contravened a strict interpretation of Sharia law was brutally punished, often with torture or murder. Freedom of movement was also curtailed with a reported 'departure tax' for anyone looking to leave cities controlled by Isis. The executions continued – in February a video was released of a captive Jordanian pilot being burnt alive in a cage.

Isis continued to carry out terrorist attacks in areas it did not directly control in the Middle East, killing scores. Terrorist attacks in the West also pick up seriously – 14 single attacks according to one analysis.

The largest attack on the West took place in Paris in November of 2015. Nine terrorists killed 130 people and injured 413 in a series of attacks across the northern suburb of Saint-Denis. But this was not the only large attack during 2015: Isis also claimed responsibility for the downing of Metrojet Flight 9268, a crash which killed 224 people, and four suicide attacks in Yemen, which killed 142. In December a married couple in the US killed 14 in San Bernadino – the deadliest mass shooting since Sandy Hook in 2012. While the pair had clearly been inspired by Isis – one of them even swore allegiance on the day of the attack – the FBI did not believe they were part of an active Isis cell.

2016 – Rollback continues – as do terror attacks

2016 saw trends that began in 2015 largely continue – Isis lost territory while continuing to carry out and inspire terrorist attacks all over the world. Isis generally claimed these attacks were retaliations for airstrikes and other military action carried out by the coalition of forces repelling them.

Attacks seemingly planned by Isis rocked Europe throughout the year. In March, 32 people were killed in an attack on a Brussels airport and metro station. In June, 44 people died when three people attacked an airport in Istanbul, Turkey. In July, a truck was driven into the crowds celebrating Bastille Day in Nice, France killing 86. In December, a truck was driven into a Christmas market, killing 12. Many other attacks took place across the Middle East.

Several high level Isis members were reportedly killed in various bombings throughout the year. In June, Isis lost control of the Iraqi city of Fallujah and in October the long fight to retake Mosul began.

2017 – Isis routed from Iraq and self-styled capital in Syria

2017 finally saw Isis repelled from Iraq and much of its territory in Syria.

The battle for the large Iraqi city of Mosul took nine months and was horrific. Most of the troops came from the Iraqi army and Kurdish forces, while the US-led coalition provided support. The Iraqi army estimated at least 10,000 Isis fighters were killed while claiming just 1400 of their own died. (Isis itself announced it killed 9000 Iraqi soldiers.) Most estimates have over 10,000 civilians dying during the offensive from a combination of air strikes, shelling, and Isis executions. There were multiple reports of Iraqi Shia militias carrying out summary executions of Sunni Muslims believed to be Isis fighters, alongside other atrocities. One horrifying video showed Iraqi soldiers seemingly running over a Sunni child with a tank.

By 9 December, the Iraqi military claimed it had decisively routed Isis from Iraq and had retaken control of the border with Syria.

In Syria, Isis retained territory but lost control of its 'capital' in Raqqa. Raqqa was taken by a group called the 'Syrian Democratic Forces' mostly made up of Kurdish forces but also featuring some other minorities, all backed by US airstrikes. The SDF were not allied with Syria's President Bashar al-Assad, himself accused of a litany of war crimes, and said they were fighting for a secular Syria. The Kurdish forces involved were viewed as terrorists by Turkey however, who saw the group as allied to Kurdish separatists within its borders.

The battle for Raqqa took four months and left much of the city uninhabitable. At least 1000 citizens were estimated to have been killed, alongside at least 1000 Isis fighters and over 500 SDF forces.

In November, Isis lost control of their last major city in Syria, Deir ez-Zor. By the end of the year some world leaders were already claiming victory. A map released by the US State Department showed the huge swathe of territory lost by Isis over the year – it was down to about two per cent of what it had at its height.

Small terror attacks linked to Isis continue throughout the year. In May, a suicide bomber killed 22 people at an Ariana Grande concert in Manchester – Isis claimed responsibility but attackers believe he acted alone. Smaller attacks are linked to Isis from all over the world as well as larger attacks in the Middle East.

In June, Russia claimed that al-Baghdadi had finally been killed, but this was not confirmed. The following year an audio message was released of al-Baghdadi by Isis, proving he was still alive.

2018-2019 – Isis loses caliphate

Over the last year, Isis lost what little territory it had left in Syria, beginning 2019 with just the small town of Baghuz on the Euphrates River. In March, Isis lost that too, leaving the group with no firm hold on any territory.

Analysts believed there were still tens of thousands of Isis fighters active in the Middle East, just not in active control of territory. Only a few hundred Isis troops were said to be left in Baghuz, along with many civilians.

Given Isis itself emerged out of the ashes of AQI's defeat in Iraq a decade ago, writing off its return would be foolish.

The fate of Isis' captives remained unclear. The UK recently announced it believed Cantlie, captured in 2012, was still alive. New Zealand forces were also hopeful that Akavi was alive, but no trace of her was found when the tunnels and surface of Baghuz were cleared.

Al-Baghdadi's whereabouts were also unknown.