The long and winding road to the start line for Wellington's proposed mass transit system

Friday, 24 May 2019

A mass public transport system is due to be constructed between Wellington Railway Station and the airport as part of the $6.4 billion Let's Get Wellington Moving programme.

By 2040, the average Wellingtonian probably takes the tram they use for granted.

Their complaints are limited to the howling wind that seems to come out of nowhere to snatch up their coffee cup and spill it all over them as they step onto Taranaki St station.

But the question of whether that tram will be trackless, on rails, or just a bus with a new lick of paint, will dominate transport debates over the next decade.

No business case is to be left unwritten, or computer model unutilised, during the multi-decade process to decide how billions of transport dollars from council and Government coffers will be spent.

* Multibillion-dollar plan to fix Wellington's traffic

An artist's impression of a possible mass transit route for Wellington, running along Taranaki St.

* Debate over light rail versus trackless trams

* Wellington's big four transport projects**

Then there is the construction of the mass transit system itself, which could turn out three different ways depending on how those cases stack up.

WELLINGTON'S PATH TO MASS TRANSIT

The path to the end of the mass transit finish line is paved with business cases.

In 2021, one of them might even give Wellingtonians an idea of what they'll get. Then again, if Auckland is anything to go by, maybe not.

By the end of July, the New Zealand Transport Agency is expected to approve the development of a business case by Wellington City Council and Greater Wellington Regional Council - two of the three agencies which make up the Let's Get Wellington Moving group - to hire consultants to look into mass transit options.

The process of finding those consultants could take around three months, which would take the project into the end of the year.

The chosen team would spend 2020 investigating all three types of mass transit floated: light rail, trackless trams, and rapid buses.

A lot of research has already been done into routes and the movements of people and pedestrians, which could speed up the process, but some of that work might need to be redone.

The mass transit system, depicted here running along Cobham Drive on State Highway 1, would be light rail, trackless trams, or a rapid bus route.

Especially in light of the fact the 'indicative proposal' approved by the Government is different to the Let's Get Wellington Moving (LGWM) package put forward in October.

LGWM programme director Barry Mein said those changes meant some of the analysis work used for that proposal might no longer be fit for purpose.

With all of that floating around in the background, Mein is reluctant to put a specific year beside anything.

But he says many of the key players are aiming to know by 2021 what system they can expect.

COUNCIL APPROVAL

That is the year councils go public with their 10-year long-term plans, and when the next Regional Land Transport Plan (RLTP) will be created.

And the amount of money councils have to set aside will differ markedly depending on the system chosen.

But there are a lot of ways Wellington could miss that 2021 deadline.

Trackless trams, such as the autonomous rapid transit (ART) version in China, are a tenth of the cost of light rail.

When light rail was first put forward in Auckland in 2015, Auckland Transport (AT) started a business case process that was predicted to last 12-15 months.

Several curveballs later, Auckland is still waiting on that business case.

First the Government stepped in, putting a stop to AT's business case and starting another one.

Then, more recently, a partnership between the NZ Superannuation Fund and Canadian pension fund CDPQ to run the light rail in Auckland paused that process too.

'There is always the opportunity for private players to come in, as they have done in Auckland, so I guess we have to be open to that possibility,' Mein said.

'But you would hope it's done in a way that isn't too disruptive to the process.'

Ideally, mass transit - light rails, track-free trams, advanced train systems - should be bigger, better, more efficient and more affordable, Tim Jones from Congestion Free Wellington said.

NZTA's approval of business cases hasn't gone entirely Auckland Council's way either, with its latest budget showing $120 million of expected funding hasn't arrived.

The National Land Transport Fund (NLTF), where LGWM's Government funding comes from, has been oversubscribed in the past, and that could happen again in the year it goes to NZTA with its mass transit business case.

'In some cases they have to push projects out because there's not enough money to do the things they want to do, that's the nature of the beast,' Mein said.

THE OPTIONS

Wellingtonians have been promised a mass transit system between the railway station and Newtown by 2029, with a connection to the airport some time after that.

A new road to separate local and state highway traffic at the Basin Reserve is at least 10 years away.

The two most likely options are a light rail system or trackless trams, though a rapid bus route is also in the mix.

Although the project has received Government funding through the $6.4 billion LGWM project announced a week ago, there are many hurdles the project needs to overcome before the first spade hits the ground.

Despite $2.2b being allocated for the project - a figure more indicative of light rail than trams or buses - Transport Minister Phil Twyford says light rail has not been locked in.

So what could Wellington's mass transit system look like, and how long would it take to construct?

LIGHT RAIL

The Let's Get Wellington Moving group says it wants a mass transit system between Wellington Railway Station and Newtown between 2024 and 2029, with a connection to the airport some time after 2029.

John Rankin, spokesman for lobby group Fair and Intelligent Transport Wellington (Fit Wellington), said that timeframe would be quite easy to meet.

'If you look at other cities around the world, I think around four years is a reasonable construction period for a line of that length.'

The route from the railway station to the airport was about 9.2km, and could be built within four years, Rankin said.

That meant if construction was to start before 2024, there was no reason why the entire route - from the railway station to the airport - could not be completed by 2029.

However, there would need to be another 12 months allowed for testing of the system.

Rankin worked on North America's first light rail system, which opened in Edmonton, Canada, in 1978. That project, and another one in Vancouver, both had similar construction timeframes.

There was also no 'engineering reason' why the project had to be staggered into two stages.

A connection through Kilbirnie to the airport, possibly via Wellington Zoo in Newtown, is hoped to be completed some time after 2029.

The route proposed by LGWM would go along the waterfront quays and Taranaki St, past the Basin Reserve and along Adelaide Rd to Newtown. It would eventually run through Kilbirnie, possibly via a tunnel through Mt Albert, to the airport.

The proposal is slightly different than the one proposed by Fit Wellington, which includes a tunnel under Mt Cook to navigate past the Basin, but the extra tunnel would not affect the construction time, Rankin said.

The initial light rail vehicle could be about 33 metres long, with three carriages carrying a total of about 250 people. However, the vehicles could get as long as 60-plus metres - the vehicle proposed for Auckland was 66m.

That meant there would need to be boarding platforms of up to 70m at all stops on the route, with shelter, ticketing gates, and an elevation slightly higher than a normal footpath, Rankin said.

It's hoped the mass transit system will be operating between Wellington Railway Station and Newtown by 2029.

The trains would typically stop for about 20 seconds - the same as another proposed option, trackless trams.

Trackless trams/rapid bus route

Environmental scientist Peter Newman, coordinating lead author for transport at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), said with a dedicated route already in place, trackless trams could be up-and-running within six months.

Putting a new top seal over the road, and painting the lines which the trams would follow through sensors, could be done 'in a weekend', Newman said.

Constructing the 'transit way' - essentially the 30m purpose-built boarding platforms - would take about six months.

'There is no relocation of services, no track construction time, no overhead wires to worry about, and no depots to build - because you could use existing bus depots.

'There are lots of opportunities to make time and cost savings.'

In any case, two vehicle lanes would need to be removed to make way for the system chosen.

Marie Verschuer, a social planner and transport adviser with a focus on trackless trams, is currently helping with trials of the vehicles in Perth.

While that would take between six and 12 months, once that ground work was done, testing in Wellington could be done in just a couple of weeks, she said.

The model being used, the autonomous rapid transit (ART), typically comprised three carriages and was about 30m long, Verschuer said.

Boarding platforms, which would need to be at least as long, were about 33 centimetres above ground level.

A rapid bus route would take about the same time to construct as trackless trams. The latter is said to be about a tenth of the cost of light rail.