Warm, sunny weekend for most of the North Island but rain, gales for the South Island

Thursday, 9 January 2020

The forecast shows little chance of rain during the next week for Northland, which is much drier than usual for the time of year.

The weekend looks set to bring a stark contrast in weather, with gales and heavy rain in many parts of the south and sunshine for most of the north.

A northwest flow during the weekend was forecast to bring heavy rain to the West Coast, and strong winds to many southern and central areas, MetService meteorologist Lewis Ferris said.

For the North Island, a ridge of high pressure would keep the wet weather at bay, with a mostly fine weekend expected. The exception was the southern part of the island, where northerly winds would get strong.

Aucklanders feeling a bit disgruntled about their summer so far should be happier during the weekend and into next week.

MetService is showing a chance of severe north to northwest gales for the east and inland South Island and Fiordland on one or other - or possibly both - of the weekend days. There's also a chance of severe gales in Wellington and Wairarapa.

Winds are expected to gust up to 130kmh in the Canterbury High Country during the weekend.

* More water bans in pipeline for Far North after record dry weather in Northland

* Year of weather extremes for South Canterbury**

Many of the areas to get rain on the weekend might feel they've had about enough of it for now. On the other hand, areas in the northern half of the North Island, which are much drier than usual, are given little chance of rain during the next week.

Aucklanders might start feeling more confident that summer has arrived, with the maximum temperature expected to get to 23 degrees Celsius on Saturday, 25C on Sunday, and to keep getting into the mid-20s through the week. The forecast shows little chance of rain during the week.

In Wellington, northerlies are expected to be strong or gale by Saturday afternoon, and to remain gale strength in exposed places on Sunday. The outlook for next week shows less wind and no rain.

Christchurch is forecast to get to 27C on Saturday, as northeasterlies turn strong and gusty northwest in the afternoon. The gusty winds could continue through the morning on Sunday, when a high of 28C is expected. Maximum temperatures are forecast to drop a bit during the week before picking up again on Friday, and there's also no sign of rain in the outlook.

Above 2000 metres in the Canterbury High Country and the Southern Lakes area, wind speeds are forecast to reach 130kmh on Saturday afternoon. The severe gale northwesterlies are forecast to ease late on Sunday.

Niwa data shows soils in roughly the upper half of the North Island are much drier than usual for the time of year. Presenting Niwa's annual climate summary for 2019 on Thursday, forecaster Nava Fedaeff said no parts of the country were in meteorological drought yet, but some of the thresholds for that status were being approached.

The Niwa summary said 2019 was the fourth warmest year in New Zealand in 110 years, based on temperatures from seven weather stations spread around the country.

A remarkable 27 places recorded their highest annual mean maximum temperature, with Hanmer Forest being 2.4C above normal at 19.4C, Te Kuiti 2C above normal at 20.8C, and Taupō was 2.3C above normal at 19C. Other places to hit record mean maximums included Whangārei, Whenuapai, Tauranga, Rotorua, Hamilton Airport, Gisborne, Blenheim, Christchurch and Musselburgh in Dunedin.

Highest extreme maximum temperatures were recorded at 14 places, including Kelburn in Wellington, which reached 30.3C, Hamilton Airport with 32C Porirua with 31C, and Upper Hutt with 33.5C.